Ask The Wizard #245

Let's look at the data first. The following table shows the number of tables by game and year for Clark County from the Nevada Gaming Control Quarterly Statistical Reports. All years are based on the fourth quarter except 2009, which is based on the third quarter, because at the time of this writing, the fourth quarter was not yet available. Sports, racing, bingo, and keno are not included.

The next table shows the percentage of the total table game market for each game for 1990 and 2009. Note how 21 is the biggest loser, going from 74.0% to 55.6%.

This begs the question of why blackjack is losing market share. Here are what I think are the main reasons:

1. Popularity of poker-based games is causing some players to switch.
2. Casinos don’t comp blackjack play as well as other games.
3. The rules are getting worse. I’m not suggesting most players know this, but over time, players can feel rule changes, like the dealer’s hitting a soft 17, in their wallet.
4. All casino games have a natural lifespan, and blackjack is getting more grey.

From the 2000 to 2009 NFL seasons, not including the 2009 post-season, there were 567 failed 2-point conversion attempts, and 318 successful attempts. Going by that, the probability of success is 318/(567+318) = 35.9%.

Las Vegas casinos are surprisingly risk averse; they don’t like taking big bets. For customers off the street, the biggest bet a nice casino will take is usually $150,000 in baccarat, on player or banker. In other traditional table games, the limit is usually $10,000. Limits can be raised upon request by known customers.

This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas.

Short answer, no.

Long answer, If the numbers of 7s, 8s, and 9s are all twice what they should be, then the player should double 12 against a 6. However, how often does that happen? Even if it did, the best of card counting strategies would not identify the situation. For confirmation, I asked Don Schlesinger, author of Blackjack Attack, who said, "We kicked that around on the sites, and, with normal count systems, the answer was never."

The standard Atlantic City rules are 6 or 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed, no surrender, no re-splitting aces, and the player may only split other pairs twice. However, Resorts also has some tables with those rules except the dealer hits a soft 17. Using my blackjack house edge calculator, and assuming 8 decks, the house edge is 0.46% if the dealer stands on a soft 17 and 0.67% if he hits. The general formula for the increase in the house edge if a nonrefundable fee must be paid per hand is f/(b+f), where f is the fee and b is the initial bet. In doing so, I define the house edge as the ratio of the expected loss to the sum of the bet and the fee. So, at a $2 bet, the increase in the house edge is 0.25/2.25 = 11.11%. At a $5 bet, the increase is 0.25/5.25 = 4.76%. I would assume they are going to have the dealer hit a soft 17 at these tables, making the overall house edge 11.78% at a $2 bet and 5.43% at a $5 bet. This is much worse than the 6 to 5 games or even money games they have in Vegas. Still, this isn’t as bad as the rule where a player loses on ties, which I saw in Finland.

This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas.