Ask The Wizard #393
Which Las Vegas casinos still have pai gow tiles?
Sadly, more places have been removing it. I believe the latest casualty is Harrah's. Here are the properties that still have it:
- Aria
- Bellagio
- Caesars Palace
- MGM
- Palace Station
- Paris
- Resorts World
- Wynn
Is it true that Mexico City's three largest earthquakes all struck on September 7, in different years?
No!
I've been looking over the Wikipedia page on the List of earthquakes in Mexico. It definitely doesn't justify that claim. Here is what I can say:
- On 9-7-2017, Mexico's second largest earthquake in recorded history, at magnitude 8.2, struck in Chiapas in southern Mexico.
- On 9-7-2021, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck in the state of Guerrero, which is close to Mexico City. This is the 71st more powerful in Mexico's recorded history
- On 9-19-1985, Mexico's fifth largest earthquake in recorded history, at magnitude 8.0, struck in Mexico City and Michoacán.
If I look at the 30 most recent Mexican earthquakes on the list, I can say that 9 of the did happen in September. The probability of 9 or more in a September is 1 in 2031. However, the probability of 9 or more in any month, in the top 30, is about 1 in 169. The bottom line is I don't see anything very unusual here.
What is the James Bond betting system in roulette and in which movie does he play it?
I'm pretty sure I can say that in none of the official Bond movies, which I define as being produced by the Broccoli family, does Bond play roulette. I don't think he even plays roulette in an unofficial Bond movie.
Nevertheless, somebody came up with a set of bets in single-zero roulette and called it the James Bond strategy. What is has to do with James Bond, I have no idea. To play it, first decide your unit size. You will be betting 20 units per spin, so decide what is the most you're willing to lose per spin and divide that by 20. Then bet as follows:
- 14 units on 19 to 36
- 5 units on the double street bet covering 13 to 18
- 1 unit on zero
The following table shows my analysis of it.
James Bond Roulette Strategy Return Table
| Event | Numbers | Net Win | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.027027 | 0.432432 |
| 13 to 18 | 6 | 10 | 0.162162 | 1.621622 |
| 19 to 36 | 18 | 8 | 0.486486 | 3.891892 |
| 1 to 12 | 12 | -20 | 0.324324 | -6.486486 |
| Total | 37 | 1.000000 | -0.540541 |
The lower right cell shows the player can expect to lose 0.54 units per spin. If we divide that by the 20 units bet, we can a house edge of 0.54/20 = 2.70%, the house edge in single-zero roulette.
I personally don't see anything great about the strategy. It does win 67.6% of the time. However, the other 32.4% you lose a lot. You would have similar results betting 2 out of the 3 columns.