Bet the Deck

Introduction

Bet the Deck is a table game I found at the Golden Nugget in April, 2005. It is a simple poker variation in which the player bets on the outcome of a 5-card stud hand. The poker hand is composed of four community cards and a fifth card(s) of the player's chosing. Following is a scan of the rule card.

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Analysis

Following are the available bets.

• Eight or Lower

  The Eight or Lower bet wins if all four community cards are all eight or lower. Aces count as low. A winning bet pays 6 to 1. The probability of winning is 13.28% and the house edge is 7.02%.

• All Red

  The All Red bet wins if all four community cards are all red. A winning bet pays 16 to 1. The probability of winning is 5.52% and the house edge is 6.12%.

• All Black

  The All Black bet wins if all four community cards are all black. A winning bet pays 16 to 1. The probability of winning is 5.52% and the house edge is 6.12%.

• Ace, 2, King

  These are three of the ranks available for the card bet. The player chooses one or more of these and is paid according to the poker value of the chosen card and the four community cards. The following table shows what each hand pays, the number of combinations, probability, and return. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 9.33%.

   

  Ace, 2, King Bets in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	250 to 1	1	0.000004	0.000923
  Straight flush	125 to 1	8	0.00003	0.003694
  Four of a kind	50 to 1	204	0.000754	0.037677
  Full house	20 to 1	624	0.002305	0.046098
  Straight	15 to 1	504	0.001862	0.027925
  Flush	7 to 1	2852	0.010535	0.073743
  Three of a kind	3 to 1	8448	0.031205	0.093615
  Two pair	2 to 1	15048	0.055584	0.111168
  Pair hold card	1 to 1	55440	0.204783	0.204783
  Other	Loss	187596	0.692939	-0.692939
  Total		270725	1	-0.093312

   

• 3, Queen

  These are two of the ranks available for the card bet. The player chooses one or more of these and is paid according to the poker value of the chosen card and the four community cards. The following table shows what each hand pays, the number of combinations, probability, and return. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.67%.

   

  3, Queen Bets in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	250 to 1	1	0.000004	0.000923
  Straight flush	125 to 1	12	0.000044	0.005541
  Four of a kind	50 to 1	204	0.000754	0.037677
  Full house	20 to 1	624	0.002305	0.046098
  Straight	15 to 1	756	0.002793	0.041888
  Flush	7 to 1	2848	0.01052	0.073639
  Three of a kind	3 to 1	8448	0.031205	0.093615
  Two pair	2 to 1	15048	0.055584	0.111168
  Pair hold card	1 to 1	55440	0.204783	0.204783
  Other	Loss	187344	0.692008	-0.692008
  Total		270725	1	-0.076676

   

• 4, Jack

  These are two of the ranks available for the card bet. The player chooses one or more of these and is paid according to the poker value of the chosen card and the four community cards. The following table shows what each hand pays, the number of combinations, probability, and return. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.00%.

   

  4, Jack Bets in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	250 to 1	1	0.000004	0.000923
  Straight flush	125 to 1	16	0.000059	0.007388
  Four of a kind	50 to 1	204	0.000754	0.037677
  Full house	20 to 1	624	0.002305	0.046098
  Straight	15 to 1	1008	0.003723	0.05585
  Flush	7 to 1	2844	0.010505	0.073536
  Three of a kind	3 to 1	8448	0.031205	0.093615
  Two pair	2 to 1	15048	0.055584	0.111168
  Pair hold card	1 to 1	55440	0.204783	0.204783
  Other	Loss	187092	0.691078	-0.691078
  Total		270725	1	-0.060039

   

• 5 to 10

  These are six of the ranks available for the card bet. The player chooses one or more of these and is paid according to the poker value of the chosen card and the four community cards. The following table shows what each hand pays, the number of combinations, probability, and return. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 4.34%.

   

  5 to 10 Bets in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	250 to 1	1	0.000004	0.000923
  Straight flush	125 to 1	20	0.000074	0.009234
  Four of a kind	50 to 1	204	0.000754	0.037677
  Full house	20 to 1	624	0.002305	0.046098
  Straight	15 to 1	1260	0.004654	0.069813
  Flush	7 to 1	2840	0.01049	0.073432
  Three of a kind	3 to 1	8448	0.031205	0.093615
  Two pair	2 to 1	15048	0.055584	0.111168
  Pair hold card	1 to 1	55440	0.204783	0.204783
  Other	Loss	186840	0.690147	-0.690147
  Total		270725	1	-0.043402

   

• Joker Bet

  The Joker Bet is similar to the Card Bets, except the fifth card is a totally wild joker. The following table shows what each hand pays, the number of combinations, probability, and return. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 4.89%.

   

   

  Joker Bet in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	50 to 1	13	0.000048	0.002401
  Straight flush	30 to 1	164	0.000606	0.018173
  Four of a kind	6 to 1	2496	0.00922	0.055318
  Full house	6 to 1	2808	0.010372	0.062233
  Straight	2 to 1	10332	0.038164	0.076328
  Flush	6 to 1	2696	0.009958	0.059751
  Three of a kind	1 to 1	82368	0.30425	0.30425
  All other	Loss	169848	0.627382	-0.627382
  Total		270725	1	-0.048928

   

Written by: Michael Shackleford