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Buster Blackjack Side Bet - Rules & Payouts Explained
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I saw Buster Blackjack in Lake Tahoe on July 9, 2016, but I think it has been around for years. The bet wins if the dealer busts. The more cards it takes, the more the player wins. The bet is marketed by AGS.
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Rules
The rules to the side bet are quite simple. If the dealer busts, then the player wins according to how many cards were needed to bust. If the dealer does not bust, then the side bet loses. I know of two pay tables, which are shown below. All wins are on a "to one" basis.
Version 1 Pay Table
| Cards | Pays |
|---|---|
| 8 or more | 250 |
| 7 | 50 |
| 6 | 15 |
| 5 | 4 |
| 3 or 4 | 2 |
Version 2 assumes that if the player gets a blackjack, then the dealer will still play out his hand.
Version 2 Pay Table
| Cards | Pays |
|---|---|
| 8+ cards & player BJ | 2000 |
| 7 cards & player BJ | 800 |
| 8+ cards & no player BJ | 250 |
| 7 cards & no player BJ | 50 |
| 6 cards | 18 |
| 5 cards | 4 |
| 3 or 4 cards | 2 |
Pay Table 1 Analysis
The following table shows the probability and return of all possible outcomes, assuming six decks and the dealer hits a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.21%.
Pay Table 1 — Six Decks — Dealer Hits Soft 17
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bust with 8 cards | 250 | 0.000012 | 0.002986 |
| Bust with 7 cards | 50 | 0.000214 | 0.010722 |
| Bust with 6 cards | 12 | 0.002638 | 0.031651 |
| Bust with 5 cards | 4 | 0.020473 | 0.08189 |
| Bust with 4 cards | 2 | 0.089392 | 0.178784 |
| Bust with 3 cards | 2 | 0.173032 | 0.346064 |
| Dealer doesn't bust | -1 | 0.714241 | -0.714241 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.062143 |
The next table shows the house edge for other number of decks and whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17.
House Edge Summary
| Decks | Stand on Soft 17 |
Hit on Soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.77% | 6.89% |
| 2 | 8.48% | 6.51% |
| 4 | 8.31% | 6.29% |
| 5 | 8.27% | 6.25% |
| 6 | 8.25% | 6.21% |
| 8 | 8.22% | 6.17% |
Pay Table 2 Analysis
The following table shows the probability and return of all possible outcomes, assuming six decks and the dealer stands on a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.20%.
Pay Table 2 — Six Decks — Dealer Stands on Soft 17
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8+ cards & player BJ | 2000 | 0.00000037 | 0.000746886 |
| 7 cards & player BJ | 800 | 0.00000786 | 0.006284453 |
| 8+ cards | 250 | 0.00000808 | 0.002020582 |
| 7 cards | 50 | 0.00016478 | 0.008239127 |
| 6 cards | 18 | 0.00231512 | 0.041672197 |
| 5 cards | 4 | 0.01911939 | 0.076477552 |
| 3 or 4 cards | 2 | 0.26030574 | 0.520611475 |
| No bust | -1 | 0.71807866 | -0.718078658 |
| Total | 1.00000000 | -0.062026386 |
Mega Blackjack
Mega Blackjack is a blackjack variant that has special pay tables for the Buster Blackjack bet, as shown below. Note that for pay table 3 the dealer must bust with four or more cards for the side bet to win.
Buster Blackjack Version 3
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bust with 8+ cards | 250 | 0.000012 | 0.002986 |
| Bust with 7 cards | 50 | 0.000214 | 0.010722 |
| Bust with 6 cards | 15 | 0.002638 | 0.039564 |
| Bust with 5 cards | 10 | 0.020473 | 0.204726 |
| Bust with 4 cards | 6 | 0.089392 | 0.536351 |
| All other | -1 | 0.887272 | -0.887272 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.092923 |
Version 2 of Buster Blackjack has a pay table that pays for any busted dealer hand of three or more cards. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 13.79%.
Buster Blackjack Version 4
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bust with 8+ cards | 250 | 0.000012 | 0.002986 |
| Bust with 7 cards | 50 | 0.000214 | 0.010722 |
| Bust with 6 cards | 15 | 0.002638 | 0.039564 |
| Bust with 5 cards | 4 | 0.020473 | 0.081890 |
| Bust with 4 cards | 3 | 0.089392 | 0.268175 |
| Bust with 3 cards | 1 | 0.173032 | 0.173032 |
| All other | -1 | 0.714240 | -0.714240 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.137870 |
Evolution Gaming
The live dealer studio by Evolution Gaming offers a game called Infinite Blackjack with the following pay table. The other rules are eight decks, dealer stands on soft 17, and the dealer always plays out his hand, even if the player gets blackjack. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.18%.
Evolution Gaming Pay Table and Rules
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bust with 8+ cards | 250 | 0.000009 | 0.002216 |
| Bust with 7 cards | 100 | 0.000177 | 0.017679 |
| Bust with 6 cards | 50 | 0.002337 | 0.116829 |
| Bust with 5 cards | 9 | 0.019139 | 0.172254 |
| Bust with 4 cards | 2 | 0.087163 | 0.174325 |
| Bust with 3 cards | 1 | 0.173015 | 0.173015 |
| Dealer doesn't bust | -1 | 0.718160 | -0.718160 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.061842 |
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General Dealer Analysis
As long as I took the trouble to analyze this bet, I created a table showing the probability of various dealer events for a six-deck and eight-deck games and whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17.
Dealer Probabilities — Six Decks
| Event | Stand Soft 17 | Hit Soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| Dealer blackjack | 0.0474894880039574 | 0.0474894880039574 |
| Total of 17 | 0.1452452688762730 | 0.1334589459656700 |
| Total of 18 | 0.1392577712671790 | 0.1412046774882130 |
| Total of 19 | 0.1336847392868550 | 0.1356816733415020 |
| Total of 20 | 0.1795273038236620 | 0.1815306022489940 |
| Total of 21 | 0.0728740870713831 | 0.0748744175668735 |
| Bust with 3 cards | 0.1730318431697950 | 0.1730318431697950 |
| Bust with 4 cards | 0.0872738945778543 | 0.0893918097334332 |
| Bust with 5 cards | 0.0191193879779139 | 0.0204725508735587 |
| Bust with 6 cards | 0.0023151220619265 | 0.0026376021859953 |
| Bust with 7 cards | 0.0001726381111420 | 0.0002144441681795 |
| Bust with 8 cards | 0.0000082097440626 | 0.0000115279883244 |
| Bust with 9 cards | 0.0000002420252193 | 0.0000004080497202 |
| Bust with 10 cards | 0.0000000039733294 | 0.0000000090950948 |
| Bust with 11 cards | 0.0000000000293970 | 0.0000000001198596 |
| Bust with 12 cards | 0.0000000000000475 | 0.0000000000008244 |
| Bust with 13 cards | 0.0000000000000000 | 0.0000000000000022 |
| Total | 1.0000000000000000 | 1.0000000000000000 |
Dealer Probabilities — Eight Decks
| Event | Stand Soft 17 | Hit Soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| Total of 17 | 0.145215 | 0.133409 |
| Total of 18 | 0.139318 | 0.141280 |
| Total of 19 | 0.133629 | 0.135630 |
| Total of 20 | 0.179709 | 0.181714 |
| Total of 21 | 0.072838 | 0.074841 |
| Blackjack | 0.047451 | 0.047451 |
| Bust with 3 cards | 0.173015 | 0.173015 |
| Bust with 4 cards | 0.087163 | 0.089276 |
| Bust with 5 cards | 0.019139 | 0.020491 |
| Bust with 6 cards | 0.002337 | 0.002661 |
| Bust with 7 cards | 0.000177 | 0.000219 |
| Bust with 8 cards | 8.60E-06 | 1.21E-05 |
| Bust with 9 cards | 2.63E-07 | 4.44E-07 |
| Bust with 10 cards | 4.58E-09 | 1.06E-08 |
| Bust with 11 cards | 3.76E-11 | 1.55E-10 |
| Bust with 12 cards | 8.35E-14 | 1.29E-12 |
| Bust with 13 cards | 0.00E+00 | 4.56E-15 |
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External Links
- Discussion of Buster Blackjack in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.