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Fielder's Choice

Introduction

Fielder's Choice is a set of three bets in craps I noticed at the Suncoast in Las Vegas on January 30, 2019. Later, I saw them at Caesars Palace as well. They are simple one roll bets that the total will one of a group of three numbers.

Rules

  1. There are three Fielder's Choice bets, as follows:
    • Total of 2, 3, or 4 — Pays 5 for 1
    • Total of 4, 9, or 10 — Pays 3 for 1
    • Total of 10, 11, or 12 — Pays 5 for 1
  2. All three win if the total of the next roll is one of the three numbers in that group, otherwise it loses.

At the Mohegan Sun casino (associated with the Virgin hotel, formerly the Hard Rock), winning bets on the Left and Right field also paid the dealers 20% of the bet amount.

Analysis

The following three tables show the probability and contribution to the return of all three Fielder's Choice bets. The win has been converted to a "to one" basis. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 16.67% on all of them.

2, 3, or 4

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
2, 3, or 4 4 6 0.166667 0.666667
All other -1 30 0.833333 -0.833333
Total   36 1.000000 -0.166667

4, 9, or 10

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
4, 9, or 10 2 10 0.277778 0.555556
All other -1 26 0.722222 -0.722222
Total   36 1.000000 -0.166667

10, 11, or 12

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
10, 11, or 12 4 6 0.166667 0.666667
All other -1 30 0.833333 -0.833333
Total   36 1.000000 -0.166667

Advice

At a 16.67% house edge, I would suggest avoiding these bets. If the hop bets pay 15 to 1 (or 16 for 1) on easy hops and 30 to 1 (or 31 for 1) on the hard hops, then you can achieve the same bet by betting the hops and reduce the house edge. As a reminder, the house edge on easy hops at 15 to 1 is 11.11% and on hard hops at 30 to 1 is 13.89%. However, I would recommend avoiding them to as well as every bet in the middle of the table.

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Written by: Michael Shackleford