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Replay -- Craps Side Bet
Introduction
Replay is a craps side bet I spotted at the Boulder Station on September 16, 2010. It pays if the shooter makes the same point at least three times before sevening out.
Rules
The bet starts with a new shooter and ends with a seven-out. The following table shows the pay table. Wins are on a "to one" basis.
Replay Pay Table
| Event | Pays |
|---|---|
| Point of 4 or 10 achieved four or more times | 1000 |
| Point of 5 or 9 achieved four or more times | 500 |
| Point of 4 or 10 achieved three times | 120 |
| Point of 6 or 8 achieved four or more times | 100 |
| Point of 5 or 9 achieved three times | 95 |
| Point of 6 or 8 achieved three times | 70 |
Analysis
The following table shows my analysis of the Replay bet. The lower right corner shows a house edge of 24.81%.
Replay Return Table
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point of 4 or 10 achieved four or more times | 1000 | 0.00003691863657 | 0.03691863656821 |
| Point of 5 or 9 achieved four or more times | 500 | 0.00020671490002 | 0.10335745001061 |
| Point of 4 or 10 achieved three times | 120 | 0.00052298052124 | 0.06275766254895 |
| Point of 6 or 8 achieved four or more times | 100 | 0.00069820960363 | 0.06982096036327 |
| Point of 5 or 9 achieved three times | 95 | 0.00179993294223 | 0.17099362951155 |
| Point of 6 or 8 achieved three times | 70 | 0.00429327448455 | 0.30052921391822 |
| Loser | -1 | 0.99244196891176 | -0.99244196891176 |
| Total | 1.00000000000000 | -0.24806441599095 |
Methodology
Integral calculus was used to analyze this bet, thus the results accurate to as many decimal places stated. A random simulation was also done to confirm the results, which matched to within 0.03% of return.
I have a ten-page PDF document that details my analysis of the Replay bet.