Deal or No Deal Live

Introduction

Deal or No Deal Live is a unique live dealer game by Evolution Gaming. There are games spaced about four minutes apart. Part of that time is spent in a digital qualification period. Some complain the rules are rather complicated, but it is quite simple once you get the hang of it. First the player has to qualify, then optionally "Top Up" the prizes, and then play the Deal or No Deal game.

Personally, I give the game high marks for both creativity and entertainment and good marks for value.

Rules

1. The game starts with a two-minute qualification period. The first step to qualify is choosing a bet amount and placing a bet. The amounts in the suitcases will be proportional to amount bet.

    

2. In "normal" mode, three concentric rings will spin. Each ring consists of gold and black segments. To qualify all three rings must land on a gold slice. The rings are divided into gold and black as follows:
   • Outer ring: 6 gold, 6 black
   • Middle ring: 4 gold, 8 black
   • Inner ring: 4 gold, 8 black
3. In "easy" mode, the inner rings moves to a gold position automatically, necessitating that only the outer and middle rings stop on a gold slice. The player must triple his bet to go into easy mode. This increase in the bet does not increase the eventual prizes.
4. In "very easy" mode, the inner and middle rings move to gold positions automatically, necessitating that only the outer ring stop on a gold slice. The player must increase his bet by 9x, relative to normal mode, to qualify in super easy mode. Again, this increase in the bet does not increase the eventual prizes.
5. Once the player qualifies, any remaining time until the next game is spent in "Top Up" mode.
6. In Top Up mode, the player may pick any of the 16 prizes, place a bet, and spin a wheel to add to that prize. The wheel has 15 slices. Following are the prizes, relative to the bet amount (in Easy mode) and the number of slices with that prize:
   • 5x — 1 slice
   • 8x — 3 slices
   • 10x — 4 slices
   • 15x — 3 slices
   • 20x — 2 slices
   • 25x — 1 slice
   • 50x — 1 slice
7. Next, the game goes to the live portion, including a host and one model who opens the suitcases. There are 16 suitcases with the following amounts, relative to the amount bet (in Easy mode), not including any additional prize money from the Top Up portion of the game:
   • 0.1x
   • 0.2x
   • 0.5x
   • 0.7x
   • 1x
   • 2x
   • 3x
   • 5x
   • 8x
   • 10x
   • 12x
   • 15x
   • 20x
   • 25x
   • 50x
   • 75x-500x
8. The model shall open three cases, leaving 13.
9. The Banker will make a first offer.
10. The model shall open four more cases, leaving 9.
11. The Banker will make a second offer.
12. The model shall open four more cases, leaving 5.
13. The Banker will make a third offer.
14. The model shall open three more cases, leaving 2.
15. The Banker will make a fourth offer. In addition, the player may switch suitcases at this point.
16. If the player accepts any Banker offer, then that game is over, with the player collecting that amount offered.
17. In my experience, the Banker offers are always the average of all the unopened suitcases.

Example

In the first image above, after trying several times, I achieved a gold slice in every ring, entitling me to play the bonus game.

In the second image above, I chose to Top Up the $1 prize. After a $0.10 bet, the Top Up wheel landed on $1.50. Added the the existing $1.00, that prize was now $2.50. Not shown is that I also Top Upped the $2 prize to $4.

In the third image above, I enter the bonus game. Note the 16 prize amounts on the left and right sides. The lower amounts on the left are in blue and the higher ones on the right are in red.

In the fourth image above, cases 8, 2, and 9 were opened. The average of the remaining cases is $2.11, which was also the Banker offer.

In the fifth image above, cases 11, 1, 13, and 15 were opened. The average of the remaining cases is $1.91, which was also the Banker offer.

In the sixth image above, cases 10, 14, 12, and 6 were opened. The average of the remaining cases is $2.10, which was also the Banker offer.

In the seventh image above, cases 3, 16, and 5 were opened. The average of the remaining cases is $0.185, the Banker offer was kindly rounded up to $0.19. Note the option to switch cases as well.

Analysis

The game help files say the expected return is 95.42%. To get to this average, the top prize, which can range from 75x to 500x the amount bet, must equal 122.31, which is in the range.

The first table addresses the choice of qualifying to play in Normal, Easy, or Super Easy Mode. It is not difficult to calculate the probability of qualifying in Super Easy mode is 6/12 = 1/2, in Easy mode is (4/12)×(6/12) = 1/6, and in Normal mode is (4/12)×(4/12)×(6/12) = 1/18. The third column shows those probabilities of qualifying. The fourth column shows the cost, compared to Normal mode. The fifth column is the expected cost to qualifying. Note that it is always 1.8 bets in Normal mode. In other words, the odds are the same in every mode.

The next table shows the probability of each Top Up value, relative to the bet amount in Normal mode, and its contribution to the average. The lower right cell shows the average Top Up amount is 15.27 times the initial bet amount. The probability the player will eventually win the case chosen to Top Up (assuming he accepts no Banker offers), is 15.27/16 = 95.42%.

Assuming an average maximum win of 122.31, the total of all wins is 274.81. With 16 cases, the average win is 17.1756. in Normal mode. As shown above, the expected total wagers to qualify is 18. Thus, assuming no Top Up bets are made, the expected return would be 17.1756/18 = 95.42%.

Strategy

Assuming I'm correct about the average top prize of 122.31 times the amount bet, there is no strategy to the game. The expected return will be 95.42% regardless of what you do. This includes which mode to qualify in, making Top Wagers, accepting the Banker offer, and switching the last case.

External Links

Discussion about Deal or No Deal Live in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.

Written by: Michael Shackleford