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Dream Catcher Live
Introduction
Dream Catcher is a live dealer game by Evolution Gaming that is closely based on big six. The twist is the game adds two multipliers to the wheel.
Playtech live dealer casinos offer essentially the same game, but call it Spin a Win.
Rules
I can't find the rules of this game anywhere online and the Codeta Internet casino that offers the game was of no help. However, based on screen shots of the game and a press announcement, I have put together my understanding of the rules below.
- The wheel features 54 stops. The possible outcomes on the wheel are 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, and 40, 2x, and 7x. The table below shows the number of stops for each possible outcome.
- After betting is closed, the dealer spins the wheel.
- If the wheel stops on anything other than the 2x or 7x, then bets on that number shall win and pay the same odds as the number bet on. Wins are on a "to one" basis, meaning the player keeps his original bet if he wins. For example, if the player bet $10 on 5 and the wheel stopped on 5, then the player would win $10×5 = $50 as well as keep his original bet.
- If the wheel stops on 2x or 7x, then all bets shall remain standing, but any wins on the next spin shall be multiplied by 2 or 7, according to the multiplier the wheel stopped on in the original spin.
- If the wheel stops on two or more multipliers, then then the final win shall be multiplied by the product of all multipliers before it.
- There is a maximum win of 500,000 U.S. dollars, Euros, of GBP, depending on the currency used.
Pay Table
| Wheel Stop | Number Stops |
|---|---|
| 1 | 23 |
| 2 | 15 |
| 5 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 |
| 20 | 2 |
| 40 | 1 |
| 2X | 1 |
| 7X | 1 |
Example: The player bets $10 on 5. The first spin is 2x, the next is 7x, and the one after that is 5. The player would win $10 × 5 × 2 × 7 = $700.
One reader questioned my claim that multipliers are multiplied, claiming the sum should be taken instead. As evidence the product is taken, please see this video, where the sequence of spins is 7x, 7x, 7x, 1. In the end, bets on 1 won $343.
Analysis
Some simple algebra shows that, assuming infinite possible multipliers, the average multiplier on any bet will be 52/45, or 1.15555. In other words, the player will win an extra 15.55% due to the multipliers. That said, the following table shows the house edge for all six possible bets.
House Edge
| Bet | House Edge |
|---|---|
| 1 | 4.66% |
| 2 | 4.49% |
| 5 | 8.76% |
| 10 | 3.42% |
| 20 | 7.26% |
| 40 | 9.19% |
Example: The probability of winning the $10 bet is 4/52. Before considering the multipliers, the expected return of that bet would be (4/52) × (10+1) = 84.62%. The "+1" is because the player keeps his original bet if he wins. However, we need to multiply the winning odds of 10 by (52/45) for the average multiplier. Thus, the overall return is (4/52) × (10 × (52/45) + 1) = 96.58%. If the player gets back 96.58%, the difference between that and 100% is the house edge, or 100%-96.58% = 3.42%.
As mentioned in the rules, there is a maximum win of half a million dollars/Euros/GBP. It would be rather complicated to calculate the effect of this cap on the house edge. Suffice it to say that for small initial bets, the effect would be small.
Analysis of Actual Results
Our friends at Tracksino (Online Casino Tracker) track results in Dream Catcher going back a month. The following table shows the results of Dream Catcher for the month ending September 23, 2020.
Tracksino Statistics
| Outcome | Count |
|---|---|
| 1 | 1142 |
| 2 | 666 |
| 5 | 336 |
| 10 | 187 |
| 20 | 99 |
| 40 | 40 |
| 2x | 47 |
| 7x | 39 |
| Total | 2556 |
To test the fairness of the wheel, I did a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test. The following table compares the actual results above to the expected results over 2,556.
Tracksino Chi-Squared Test
| Outcome | Number on Wheel |
Probability | Count (One Month) |
Expected (One Month) |
Chi Squared* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 0.425926 | 1142 | 1088.67 | 2.61 |
| 2 | 15 | 0.277778 | 666 | 710.00 | 2.73 |
| 5 | 7 | 0.129630 | 336 | 331.33 | 0.07 |
| 10 | 4 | 0.074074 | 187 | 189.33 | 0.03 |
| 20 | 2 | 0.037037 | 99 | 94.67 | 0.20 |
| 40 | 1 | 0.018519 | 40 | 47.33 | 1.14 |
| 2x | 1 | 0.018519 | 47 | 47.33 | 0.00 |
| 7x | 1 | 0.018519 | 39 | 47.33 | 1.47 |
| Total | 54 | 1.000000 | 2556 | 2556.00 | 8.24 |
Notes:
*: The chi-squared column shows the square of the difference between the actual and expected results divided by the expected results.
Without getting too deep into the math, the chi-squared statistic for this table is 8.238013 and seven degrees of freedom. The probability of fair and random results being further away from expectations that this is 31.21%. In other words, these results conform well with a fair game and the deviation from expectations is well with the normal range.