Red Card

Introduction

Red Card is an "arcade game" by Gluck Games. It features a field of 49 soccer balls. As the player picks them, either a trophy or red card is revealed. A trophy wins and a red card loses.

Rules

1. The game starts with a field of 49 soccer balls. Behind them are placed randomly six red cards and 43 trophies.
2. Play starts with the player making a bet.
3. Then the player chooses one of the soccer balls to scratch.
4. If the soccer ball reveals a red card, then the player loses.
5. If the soccer ball reveals a trophy, the player wins and his balance increases.
6. The win table is shown below, based on a starting wager of one unit.
7. After each successful turn, the player may quit and cash in or go back to rule 3 and scratch another soccer ball.

The following table shows what the player may cash in for after any number of turns from 1 to 26. Sorry, but the rule screen doesn't say the full pay table and 26 successful turns is as far as I ever got.

Analysis

I view each soccer ball picked as a separate bet. That said, the following table shows the probability of winning and expected return of each individual pick. The third column, titled "win next pick," shows what each bet pays on a "for one" basis, relative to the amount won from the previous pick. For example, the second pick pays 1.2 for a bet of 1.1, or 1.090909. The table stops at a total win of 85, because I don't know what you win if you go beyond that.

The next table analyzes the overall return by all stopping points through the 26th turn. The third column shows the probability of surviving past that turn. The total bet shows the average amount you would have bet if it was the goal to survive to that turn and then quit. The final column shows the ratio of the expected win to the average amount bet to get to that win. In other words, how I would define the expected return of a goal of getting to that win.

The last column is maximized at 99.534% with a strategy of surviving past the 9th pick, or getting to a win of 3.5 or lose trying.

External Links

• Play Red Card for free at the Gluck Games web site.
• Discuss Red Card in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.

Written by: Michael Shackleford