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Betting College Football
Introduction
The purpose of this page is to explain the various ways to bet on college football. I've provided my usual statistics and advice.Averages
The following table may not be of any help in the sports books, but I thought it was an interesting way to compare college football to the NFL.Football Averages
| Statistic | College | NFL |
|---|---|---|
| Total points scored | 52.80 | 42.15 |
| Over/under total | 48.31 | 41.32 |
| Point spread | -5.40 | -2.45 |
| Home margin of victory | 5.68 | 2.66 |
| First downs | 39.49 | 37.64 |
| Rushing attempts | 77.15 | 55.21 |
| Rushing yards | 313.12 | 229.52 |
| Pass attempts | 62.34 | 66.44 |
| Pass yards | 438.52 | 430.63 |
| Interceptions | 2.06 | 2.02 |
| Kickoff return yards | 166.14 | 161.90 |
| Penalties | 12.81 | 12.43 |
| Penalty yards | 109.36 | 102.77 |
| Fumbles | 3.44 | 2.94 |
| Fumbles lost | 1.74 | 1.41 |
| Punts | 10.35 | 9.66 |
| Punt yards | 419.42 | 415.04 |
| Sacks | 4.13 | 4.54 |
| Sack yards | 27.66 | 29.18 |
| Quarter 1 points | 11.95 | 8.33 |
| Quarter 2 points | 15.39 | 12.94 |
| Quarter 3 points | 12.07 | 8.92 |
| Quarter 4 points | 13.30 | 11.75 |
Margin of Victory
The following table shows the count and frequency of each margin of victory.Margin of Victory
| Margin of Victory |
Games | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 413 | 3.35% |
| 2 | 327 | 2.65% |
| 3 | 1187 | 9.63% |
| 4 | 475 | 3.85% |
| 5 | 324 | 2.63% |
| 6 | 362 | 2.94% |
| 7 | 901 | 7.31% |
| 8 | 294 | 2.38% |
| 9 | 152 | 1.23% |
| 10 | 535 | 4.34% |
| 11 | 289 | 2.34% |
| 12 | 221 | 1.79% |
| 13 | 225 | 1.82% |
| 14 | 533 | 4.32% |
| 15 | 139 | 1.13% |
| 16 | 169 | 1.37% |
| 17 | 488 | 3.96% |
| 18 | 308 | 2.50% |
| 19 | 179 | 1.45% |
| 20 | 267 | 2.17% |
| 21 | 452 | 3.67% |
| 22 | 161 | 1.31% |
| 23 | 174 | 1.41% |
| 24 | 352 | 2.85% |
| 25 | 226 | 1.83% |
| 26 | 135 | 1.09% |
| 27 | 213 | 1.73% |
| 28 | 337 | 2.73% |
| 29 | 99 | 0.80% |
| 30 | 130 | 1.05% |
| 31 | 270 | 2.19% |
| 32 | 160 | 1.30% |
| 33 | 73 | 0.59% |
| 34 | 167 | 1.35% |
| 35 | 219 | 1.78% |
| 36 | 63 | 0.51% |
| 37 | 93 | 0.75% |
| 38 | 173 | 1.40% |
| 39 | 91 | 0.74% |
| 40 | 37 | 0.30% |
| 41 | 94 | 0.76% |
| 42 | 128 | 1.04% |
| 43 | 28 | 0.23% |
| 44 | 49 | 0.40% |
| 45 | 96 | 0.78% |
| 46 | 41 | 0.33% |
| 47 | 25 | 0.20% |
| 48 | 63 | 0.51% |
| 49 | 77 | 0.62% |
| 50 | 20 | 0.16% |
| 51 | 23 | 0.19% |
| 52 | 46 | 0.37% |
| 53 | 30 | 0.24% |
| 54 | 7 | 0.06% |
| 55 | 26 | 0.21% |
| 56 | 35 | 0.28% |
| 57 | 6 | 0.05% |
| 58 | 19 | 0.15% |
| 59 | 21 | 0.17% |
| 60 | 8 | 0.06% |
| 61 | 1 | 0.01% |
| 62 | 14 | 0.11% |
| 63 | 23 | 0.19% |
| 64+ | 38 | 0.31% |
| Total | 12331 | 100.00% |
The next table shows the top ten margin of victories, in order.
Top Ten Margin of Victories
| Rank | Margin of Victory |
Games | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 1,187 | 9.63% |
| 2 | 7 | 901 | 7.31% |
| 3 | 10 | 535 | 4.34% |
| 4 | 14 | 533 | 4.32% |
| 5 | 17 | 488 | 3.96% |
| 6 | 4 | 475 | 3.85% |
| 7 | 21 | 452 | 3.67% |
| 8 | 1 | 413 | 3.35% |
| 9 | 6 | 362 | 2.94% |
| 10 | 24 | 352 | 2.85% |
| Total | 5,698 | 46.21% |
Point Spread
The primary way to bet any football game is against the spread. The following table shows the probability of a win, loss, and tie, as well as the expected value according to all combinations of betting on a home/away and underdog/favorite. This table assumes the bettor is laying 11 to win 10, which is almost always the case.
Compare Online NCAAF Odds
American Football : NCAAF
Today
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 20th 7pm | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - NC State Wolfpack |
|
-110 (-9)
|
|
Georgia Tech's inconsistent offense meets NC State's robust defense. Expect a low-scoring game with NC State's defense being the potential decider. Consider NC State favored slightly over Georgia Tech. |
This Week
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 22nd 7pm | UTSA Roadrunners - Temple Owls |
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Watch for UTSA's strong offense and dynamic quarterback play. Temple's defense will need to step up. Consider the spread for value betting. Home advantage could be crucial. |
| Fri Nov 22nd 8pm | Michigan State Spartans - Purdue Boilermakers |
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|
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Michigan State's strong defense faces Purdue's dynamic offense. Key to winning: control the ball. Weather may impact tactics. Expect a close match with potential turnovers playing a decisive role. |
| Fri Nov 22nd 10pm | San Jose State Spartans - UNLV Rebels |
|
-110 (7.5)
|
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San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Rebels: Look for a competitive game. Consider San Jose State's recent performance and UNLV's home advantage when placing bets. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 11am | Oklahoma Sooners - Alabama Crimson Tide |
|
-110 (13.5)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Oklahoma’s explosive offense challenges Alabama’s strong defense. Key players: quarterback efficiency, turnover margins. Weather may impact passing. In-depth analysis suggests a close game. Bet wisely, considering recent team performances. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 11am | Auburn Tigers - Texas A&M Aggies |
|
-110 (2.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
Auburn's strong running game faces A&M's stout defense. Quarterback play will be decisive. Aggies are slight favorites at home, but an upset is possible if Auburn's defense performs. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 11am | Florida Gators - Ole Miss Rebels |
|
-105 (10)
|
-110 (55.5)
|
Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss Rebels battle presents a classic showdown. Consider past performance, home advantage, and player stats to make informed bets. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 11am | Utah Utes - Iowa State Cyclones |
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Utah's robust defense faces a challenge against Cyclones' dynamic offense. Look for key turnovers to sway momentum. Home-field advantage could be crucial in this tightly contested matchup. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 11am | UCLA Bruins - USC Trojans |
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USC favored vs UCLA; quarterbacks shine. Pac-12 clash promises excitement. Bruins' defense must hold against Trojans' potent offense. Key game for conference standings. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | LSU Tigers - Vanderbilt Commodores |
|
|
-110 (53.5)
|
LSU Tigers expected to dominate against Vanderbilt Commodores with strong offense. Commodores struggle defensively, making LSU a strong favorite. Bet cautiously on Vanderbilt. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Maryland Terrapins - Iowa Hawkeyes |
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Maryland Terrapins' strong offense battles Iowa Hawkeyes' solid defense. Key players and home advantage can tip the scales. Expect a competitive and thrilling match. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Minnesota Golden Gophers - Penn State Nittany Lions |
345
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Minnesota's defense faces a strong Penn State offense. Track injury reports closely. Expect a competitive match. Betting on underdog can provide value. Weather might impact the game dynamics. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Houston Cougars - Baylor Bears |
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-110 (50.5)
|
Houston's strong offense faces Baylor's tough defense. Watch for turnovers and special teams. Betting seems tight, leaning on Houston's recent away form against similar opponents. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Virginia Cavaliers - SMU Mustangs |
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Virginia Cavaliers face SMU Mustangs: Virginia's defense poses challenges, but SMU's offense is explosive. Recent form favors SMU but expect a competitive game. Watch key players on both teams. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | West Virginia Mountaineers - UCF Knights |
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Expect a high-scoring game as both offenses are strong. West Virginia's defense is vulnerable. Watch UCF's quarterback performance. Betting on over might be wise. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | TCU Horned Frogs - Arizona Wildcats |
|
-110 (-11.5)
|
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TCU's strong offense and Arizona's defensive struggles suggest a high-scoring affair. Consider TCU to cover the spread given their recent form and Arizona's inconsistencies. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Boston College Eagles - North Carolina Tar Heels |
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (55.5)
|
Boston College Eagles face challenges against North Carolina Tar Heels. Analyze team stats, recent performances, and player conditions to make informed bets. Watch for live game updates. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Kansas State Wildcats - Cincinnati Bearcats |
|
-110 (-8.5)
|
-110 (52.5)
|
Kansas State Wildcats have strong offense play and home advantage. Cincinnati Bearcats struggle on the road. Expect a competitive game but Kansas State likely to win. Pay attention to defense strategies. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Rutgers Scarlet Knights - Illinois Fighting Illini |
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Rutgers' strong defense could challenge Illinois. Watch the turnover battle and ground game. Key players: Rutgers' Abrams, Illinois' Smith. Close game likely, high stakes for conference standings. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Louisville Cardinals - Pittsburgh Panthers |
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Louisville's strong offense faces Pittsburgh's resilient defense. Weather conditions could favor ground game. Key players: Jack Plummer for Louisville and MJ Devonshire for Pittsburgh. Upset potential, but Louisville favored. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Miami Hurricanes - Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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Miami's defense can pressure Wake Forest's offense. Watch for turnovers. Betting on a close game, Hurricanes slightly favored. Explore over/under options due to dynamic offenses. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Syracuse Orange - UConn Huskies |
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-110 (54.5)
|
Syracuse Orange have a strong passing attack. UConn Huskies struggle defensively. Syracuse is favored to win, but check injury reports before betting. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Jacksonville State Gamecocks - Sam Houston State Bearkats |
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Jacksonville State Gamecocks face Sam Houston State Bearkats. Key insights: Gamecocks' strong offense against Bearkats' defense. Evaluate teams' recent performances. Weather could impact play. Potential for a closely contested matchup. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Oklahoma State Cowboys - Texas Tech Red Raiders |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (67)
|
Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Tech Red Raiders clash in a high-stakes matchup, with explosive offenses and unpredictable defenses making it a thrilling betting prospect. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 12pm | Georgia Bulldogs - UMass Minutemen |
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Georgia Bulldogs are the favorites with a strong defense. UMass Minutemen will struggle to score against them. Expect a high point differential in Georgia's favor. | |
| Sat Nov 23rd 1pm | Tennessee Volunteers - UTEP Miners |
-110 (-41.5)
|
-110 (52.5)
|
Tennessee's robust offense faces UTEP's struggling defense. Volunteers have historical advantage. Expect high scoring from Tennessee. Consider betting on Tennessee to cover the spread. | |
| Sat Nov 23rd 1pm | Liberty Flames - Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
-115
|
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Liberty's strong defense and Western Kentucky's passing game make this a competitive matchup. Key players and turnovers could decide the outcome. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 1pm | Clemson Tigers - Citadel Bulldogs | Clemson Tigers are the heavy favorites against Citadel Bulldogs. Expect a dominant performance. Keep an eye on key players and betting spreads for potential value. | |||
| Sat Nov 23rd 1pm | Ohio State Buckeyes - Indiana Hoosiers |
-455
|
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Ohio State's strong offense paired with a solid defense gives them an edge against Indiana. Consider Ohio as favorites, but watch for Indiana's potential surprises. Stake cautiously. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 1pm | Florida State Seminoles - Charleston Southern Buccaneers | Florida State Seminoles are favorites over Charleston Southern Buccaneers. Consider point spread betting. Seminoles have stronger roster depth and home-field advantage, impacting game dynamics and result predictions. | |||
| Sat Nov 23rd 2pm | UAB Blazers - Rice Owls |
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UAB's strong defense faces Rice's dynamic offense. Key factors: Rice's QB performance and UAB's pass rush. Bet cautiously; it's a tight matchup. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 2pm | Ball State Cardinals - Bowling Green Falcons |
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|
-110 (57)
|
Ball State's strong defense contrasts with Bowling Green's high-powered offense. Look for crucial turnovers and key defensive stops to determine the outcome of this competitive matchup. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 2pm | Appalachian State Mountaineers - James Madison Dukes |
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Appalachian State's offense is strong, but James Madison's defense is formidable. Expect a close game with potential for a low-scoring affair. Key matchups will decide the winner. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 2pm | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders - New Mexico State Aggies |
|
|
-110 (52.5)
|
Middle Tennessee's strong offense faces New Mexico State's resilient defense. Watch for turnovers and special teams' impact, with home advantage favoring the Aggies. Game could be low-scoring. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Florida Atlantic Owls - Charlotte 49ers |
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Owls exhibit solid passing game, favored to win. 49ers rely on defense, facing challenges. Watch QB performance for key outcome. Weather may impact play. Injury updates crucial before betting. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Arkansas State Red Wolves - UL Monroe Warhawks |
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-110 (52.5)
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Arkansas State's strong defense faces UL Monroe's dynamic offense. Watch for turnovers to be key. Betting line favors Arkansas slightly, but UL Monroe's home advantage could balance the odds. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Kennesaw State Owls - Florida International Panthers |
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Kennesaw State's rushing attack faces FIU's defense. Watch turnover battle: crucial for Owls. FIU seeks home advantage; close matchup expected. Weather could impact play. Evaluate key injuries pre-game. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles - South Alabama Jaguars |
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-110 (54.5)
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Southern Miss Golden Eagles face South Alabama Jaguars. Key insights: team stats, recent performance, head-to-head history. Consider home-field advantage and injury reports for informed betting decisions. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | North Texas Mean Green - East Carolina Pirates |
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|
-110 (72.5)
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North Texas could exploit East Carolina's weak defense. Expect a high-scoring game. East Carolina's offense needs a strong performance to compete. Watch for turnovers impacting the outcome. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | California Golden Bears - Stanford Cardinal |
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California Golden Bears boast a stronger offense, but Stanford Cardinal's defense is resilient. Key player injuries may sway dynamics. Look for a close matchup in this intense rivalry. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | South Florida Bulls - Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
-800
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Tulsa's home record gives them an edge. South Florida's recent performance is inconsistent. Key players may sway results. Bet cautiously given volatility and past matchups. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Utah State Aggies - San Diego State Aztecs |
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Utah State's aggressive offense faces San Diego's tough defense. Key injuries might sway the odds. Weather could influence game dynamics, adding unpredictability. Monitor lines for late value shifts. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Kansas Jayhawks - Colorado Buffaloes |
|
-115 (3)
|
-110 (59.5)
|
Key matchup with Kansas' impressive passing attack versus Colorado's strong defense. Home field advantage might play a crucial role. Weather could impact play styles significantly. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Arizona State Sun Devils - BYU Cougars |
-155
|
-110 (-3)
|
-110 (48.5)
|
Arizona State's offense is strong, but BYU's home advantage and defense could be decisive. Key factors: turnovers and third-down conversions. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Texas Longhorns - Kentucky Wildcats |
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Consider Texas' strong offense and Kentucky's defensive strategies. Analyze past performances and injury reports. Home advantage could be key. Betting trends favor Texas, but Kentucky may surprise. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Michigan Wolverines - Northwestern Wildcats |
|
-105 (-10.5)
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Michigan Wolverines are favorites against Northwestern Wildcats. Strong defense and effective offense could lead to a decisive win. Northwestern needs offense creativity to pose a challenge. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers - Georgia Southern Eagles |
-130
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Consider Coastal Carolina's strong offense and Georgia Southern's home advantage. Key players and weather can impact the outcome. Review recent performances and betting odds before placing bets. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 3pm | Nebraska Cornhuskers - Wisconsin Badgers |
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Wisconsin’s stout defense gives them an edge, but Nebraska’s improving offense can surprise. Expect a close battle with potential for an upset. Turnovers and third downs will be decisive. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 4pm | South Carolina Gamecocks - Wofford Terriers | South Carolina's stronger roster and home advantage play in their favor against Wofford. Expect a dynamic offense and solid defense from the Gamecocks to secure a comfortable win. | |||
| Sat Nov 23rd 4pm | Arkansas Razorbacks - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
-1700
|
-110 (-22)
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Arkansas boasts a strong offense but struggles defensively. Louisiana Tech is inconsistent. Razorbacks favored, but expect a close game. Key players could swing the outcome. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 4pm | Mississippi State Bulldogs - Missouri Tigers |
|
-110 (7.5)
|
-110 (57)
|
Mississippi State struggles on the road this season. Missouri shows strong home performance. Bulldogs’ defense vulnerable against the run, while Tigers excel in rushing offense. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 5pm | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns - Troy Trojans |
-365
|
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Troy's strong defense faces Louisiana's efficient offense. Watch for turnovers. Louisiana needs a fast start; Troy excels in close games. Home advantage may be decisive for the Trojans. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 7pm | Oregon State Beavers - Washington State Cougars |
|
-110 (12.5)
|
-110 (56.5)
|
Oregon State and Washington State clash in a competitive matchup. Key players to watch include Beavers' Chance Nolan and Cougars' Jayden de Laura. Expect a high-scoring, thrilling game. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 7pm | Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Army Black Knights |
|
-110 (-14.5)
|
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Notre Dame's strong defense and home advantage make them favorites against Army. Army will rely on its rushing game, but could struggle against Irish's defensive prowess. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 7pm | Wyoming Cowboys - Boise State Broncos |
|
-110 (22.5)
|
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Boise State's strong home record and offensive prowess make them favorites. However, Wyoming's resilient defense could create an upset. Watch for key turnovers to influence the game's outcome. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 7pm | Texas State Bobcats - Georgia State Panthers |
-1100
|
-110 (-20)
|
-110 (58)
|
Texas State's strong offense battles Georgia State's resilient defense. Key players are crucial. Home advantage boosts Georgia State. Consider weather impacts. Expect a close, tactical showdown. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 7pm | Old Dominion Monarchs - Marshall Thundering Herd |
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Old Dominion's defense faces a tough test against Marshall's strong offense. Marshall has home advantage and a better conference record, likely giving them the edge. Bet cautiously. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 8pm | Duke Blue Devils - Virginia Tech Hokies |
135
|
|
-110 (47)
|
Duke has a strong defense and consistent offense. Virginia Tech struggles on the road. Expect low scoring; Duke favored to win. Consider under total points. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 10pm | Nevada Wolf Pack - Air Force Falcons |
|
-105 (-3.5)
|
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Air Force Falcons are strong at home with a dominant rushing attack. Nevada Wolf Pack struggles defensively. Consider the Falcons to cover the spread. Close attention to injury reports. |
| Sat Nov 23rd 10pm | Fresno State Bulldogs - Colorado State Rams |
|
|
-110 (46)
|
Fresno State's strong offense faces Colorado State's struggling defense. Expect high-scoring game. Look for Bulldogs to cover the spread. Monitor Rams' injury report for potential impact. |
Next Week
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 28th 7pm | Tulane Green Wave - Memphis Tigers | Consider Tulane’s strong defense and recent form, but Memphis’ home advantage and offensive capabilities make them formidable. Monitor injuries and weather conditions before placing bets. | |||
| Fri Nov 29th 3pm | Ole Miss Rebels - Mississippi State Bulldogs |
-110 (-20)
|
Ole Miss's strong offense faces Mississippi State's solid defense. Expect a high-scoring game with Ole Miss as slight favorites. Consider the points over as a betting option. | ||
| Fri Nov 29th 7pm | Georgia Bulldogs - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | Georgia Bulldogs dominate Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in recent meetings. Strong defense and high-scoring offense make Bulldogs favorites. Expect a comfortable win for Georgia. | |||
| Sat Nov 30th 12am | North Carolina Tar Heels - NC State Wolfpack |
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North Carolina boasts a strong offense, while NC State relies on solid defense. Expect a competitive match; home advantage could play a crucial role. Mind the spread and over/under. |
| Sat Nov 30th 10am | Colorado Buffaloes - Oklahoma State Cowboys | Colorado Buffaloes have shown strong offense, but Oklahoma State's defense is tough. Betting on Colorado's passing game is promising, while Oklahoma State's running game might surprise. | |||
| Sat Nov 30th 10am | Baylor Bears - Kansas Jayhawks | Baylor's defense is improving, but Kansas has a formidable offense. Watch for a high-scoring game with Kansas pulling ahead late. Expect an exciting finish. | |||
| Sat Nov 30th 11am | Texas A&M Aggies - Texas Longhorns |
|
-110 (4)
|
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Texas Longhorns: Aggies' strong defense faces Longhorns' dynamic offense. Home advantage key, watch turnover battle. Close game expected. Bet on underdog for value. | |
| Sat Nov 30th 11am | Oregon Ducks - Washington Huskies |
|
-110 (-20)
|
The Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies is a tight matchup. Watch for strong offenses. Oregon's defense might be crucial. Betting on total points could be interesting. | |
| Sat Nov 30th 11am | USC Trojans - Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
|
-110 (4)
|
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USC’s offense is explosive, but Notre Dame’s defense is sturdy. Home advantage for the Irish. Key matchup: USC’s receivers vs. Notre Dame’s secondary. |
| Sat Nov 30th 11am | LSU Tigers - Oklahoma Sooners |
|
-110 (-4.5)
|
LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners: Watch for strong offensive plays. Tigers' defense will be crucial against Sooners' passing attack. Home advantage could favor the Tigers. | |
| Sat Nov 30th 11am | Kentucky Wildcats - Louisville Cardinals |
-110 (1)
|
Kentucky's strong defense faces Louisville's explosive offense. Key players' health and home-field advantage will influence the outcome. Consider recent performances for betting. Expect a competitive and strategic match. | ||
| Sat Nov 30th 11am | Iowa State Cyclones - Kansas State Wildcats | Kansas State's strong home record makes them favorites, but Iowa State's defense is formidable. Consider betting on a close game. Watch out for weather impact in this late-season matchup. | |||
| Sat Nov 30th 11am | Florida State Seminoles - Florida Gators |
|
-110 (-11.5)
|
Florida State boasts a strong offense. Florida struggles with defense. Seminoles favored to win. Consider Seminoles covering the spread. Weather could affect outdoor play. | |
| Sat Nov 30th 11am | Alabama Crimson Tide - Auburn Tigers |
|
-110 (-13.5)
|
Alabama's strong offense faces Auburn's resilient defense. Key players' performance could decide the outcome. Expect a competitive clash with Alabama as slight favorites. | |
| Sat Nov 30th 12pm | Clemson Tigers - South Carolina Gamecocks |
-110 (-11.5)
|
Clemson's defense is strong, creating pressure on quarterbacks. South Carolina's offense relies on explosive plays. Clemson favored, but Gamecocks can surprise. Weather may affect passing game. | ||
| Sat Nov 30th 12pm | Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Duke Blue Devils |
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Analyze team performance, recent head-to-head records, and player injuries. Consider Wake Forest's offensive strategies against Duke's defense. Weather and home-field advantage can impact the game. Bet wisely with these insights. |
| Sat Nov 30th 12pm | Vanderbilt Commodores - Tennessee Volunteers | Tennessee Volunteers have strong offensive capabilities, making them favorites. Vanderbilt's defense needs improvement. Consider betting on Tennessee with a spread. Watch weather conditions as they could influence play. | |||
| Sat Nov 30th 12pm | Ohio State Buckeyes - Michigan Wolverines |
|
-110 (-10.5)
|
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Ohio State's strong offense faces Michigan's tough defense. Buckeyes have key players returning. Wolverines seek home advantage. Expect a close match. Betting trends lean slightly towards Ohio State. |
| Sat Nov 30th 1pm | Syracuse Orange - Miami Hurricanes | Syracuse struggles defensively while Miami shows strong passing game. Miami's home advantage and recent form make them favorites. Watch for Syracuse's potential upset fueled by dynamic offense. | |||
| Sat Nov 30th 1pm | Missouri Tigers - Arkansas Razorbacks | Missouri's strong defense faces a test against Arkansas' dynamic offense. Key to victory might be turnovers. Betting trends favor Arkansas at home, but Missouri's resilience is noteworthy. | |||
| Sat Nov 30th 1pm | SMU Mustangs - California Golden Bears | Expect a closely contested game; both teams have strong offenses but face challenges on defense. Key players could make the difference. Watch for turnovers and special teams play. | |||
| Sat Nov 30th 11pm | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors - New Mexico Lobos | Hawaii's passing attack faces New Mexico's defense. Both teams have struggled recently. Consider underperformance trends. Weather conditions could impact gameplay. Check roster updates before placing bets. |
Point Spread Bets
| Bet | Prob. Win | Prob. Loss | Prob. Tie | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All underdogs | 0.496298 | 0.487591 | 0.016112 | -0.036411 |
| All favorites | 0.487591 | 0.496298 | 0.016112 | -0.053033 |
| All home | 0.498338 | 0.485605 | 0.016057 | -0.032571 |
| All away | 0.485605 | 0.498338 | 0.016057 | -0.056878 |
| Home underdog | 0.505600 | 0.474971 | 0.019429 | -0.015335 |
| Home favorite | 0.494567 | 0.491155 | 0.014278 | -0.041549 |
| Away underdog | 0.491155 | 0.494567 | 0.014278 | -0.048062 |
| Away favorite | 0.474971 | 0.505600 | 0.019429 | -0.073808 |
Over-Under
The next table shows the possible outcomes and expected value of betting against the over/under line.Over/Under Bets
| Bet | Prob. Win | Prob. Loss | Prob. Tie | Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 0.503232 | 0.483320 | 0.013447 | -0.025836 |
| Over | 0.483320 | 0.503232 | 0.013447 | -0.063850 |
Money Line
The following table shows the number of games in my data at each point spread on the underdog, and the number of times the underdog won. It also shows my estimated probability of winning after smoothing out all the ups and downs. The right column shows the fair line based on the estimated probability of winning.Probability of Underdog Winning by Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Games | Actual Probability |
Estimated Probability |
Fair Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42 | 84 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 |
| 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 48.5% | 106 |
| 1 | 125 | 268 | 46.6% | 47.1% | 112 |
| 1.5 | 130 | 246 | 52.8% | 45.6% | 119 |
| 2 | 124 | 264 | 47.0% | 44.2% | 126 |
| 2.5 | 224 | 482 | 46.5% | 42.7% | 134 |
| 3 | 318 | 700 | 45.4% | 41.3% | 142 |
| 3.5 | 182 | 507 | 35.9% | 39.9% | 151 |
| 4 | 134 | 326 | 41.1% | 38.5% | 160 |
| 4.5 | 97 | 279 | 34.8% | 37.1% | 169 |
| 5 | 89 | 227 | 39.2% | 35.8% | 179 |
| 5.5 | 102 | 285 | 35.8% | 34.5% | 190 |
| 6 | 109 | 330 | 33.0% | 33.2% | 202 |
| 6.5 | 130 | 418 | 31.1% | 31.9% | 214 |
| 7 | 172 | 551 | 31.2% | 30.6% | 227 |
| 7.5 | 100 | 365 | 27.4% | 29.4% | 240 |
| 8 | 60 | 227 | 26.4% | 28.2% | 255 |
| 8.5 | 59 | 202 | 29.2% | 27.0% | 270 |
| 9 | 55 | 199 | 27.6% | 25.9% | 286 |
| 9.5 | 57 | 242 | 23.6% | 24.8% | 304 |
| 10 | 121 | 401 | 30.2% | 23.7% | 322 |
| 10.5 | 56 | 250 | 22.4% | 22.7% | 341 |
| 11 | 48 | 196 | 24.5% | 21.7% | 362 |
| 11.5 | 30 | 141 | 21.3% | 20.7% | 383 |
| 12 | 36 | 175 | 20.6% | 19.7% | 407 |
| 12.5 | 38 | 162 | 23.5% | 18.8% | 431 |
| 13 | 38 | 222 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 457 |
| 13.5 | 59 | 245 | 24.1% | 17.1% | 484 |
| 14 | 48 | 331 | 14.5% | 16.3% | 514 |
| 14.5 | 29 | 184 | 15.8% | 15.5% | 544 |
| 15 | 19 | 139 | 13.7% | 14.8% | 577 |
| 15.5 | 20 | 110 | 18.2% | 14.0% | 612 |
| 16 | 25 | 134 | 18.7% | 13.4% | 649 |
| 16.5 | 16 | 162 | 9.9% | 12.7% | 688 |
| 17 | 26 | 246 | 10.6% | 12.1% | 729 |
| 17.5 | 18 | 144 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 773 |
| 18 | 7 | 110 | 6.4% | 10.9% | 820 |
| 18.5 | 7 | 82 | 8.5% | 10.3% | 869 |
| 19 | 11 | 109 | 10.1% | 9.8% | 921 |
| 19.5 | 9 | 87 | 10.3% | 9.3% | 977 |
| 20 | 11 | 152 | 7.2% | 8.8% | 1,036 |
| 20.5 | 12 | 113 | 10.6% | 8.3% | 1,098 |
| 21 | 6 | 153 | 3.9% | 7.9% | 1,164 |
| 21.5 | 4 | 104 | 3.8% | 7.5% | 1,234 |
| 22 | 7 | 107 | 6.5% | 7.1% | 1,308 |
| 22.5 | 5 | 68 | 7.4% | 6.7% | 1,387 |
| 23 | 7 | 93 | 7.5% | 6.4% | 1,470 |
| 23.5 | 5 | 98 | 5.1% | 6.0% | 1,559 |
| 24 | 4 | 126 | 3.2% | 5.7% | 1,653 |
| 24.5 | 4 | 85 | 4.7% | 5.4% | 1,752 |
| 25 | 7 | 66 | 10.6% | 5.1% | 1,858 |
| 25.5 | 1 | 48 | 2.1% | 4.8% | 1,969 |
| 26 | 2 | 68 | 2.9% | 4.6% | 2,088 |
| 26.5 | 6 | 61 | 9.8% | 4.3% | 2,214 |
| 27 | 1 | 79 | 1.3% | 4.1% | 2,347 |
| 27.5 | 6 | 73 | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2,488 |
| 28 | 6 | 108 | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2,638 |
| 28.5 | 5 | 57 | 8.8% | 3.5% | 2,796 |
| 29 | 2 | 52 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2,965 |
| 29.5 | 1 | 45 | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3,143 |
| 30 | 1 | 50 | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3,332 |
| 30.5 | 3 | 47 | 6.4% | 2.8% | 3,533 |
| 31 | 2 | 54 | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3,745 |
To get the probability of a favorite winning, just take the difference from 100% of the underdog winning in the same game. For example, a 7-point underdog has a 30.6% estimated chance of winning. Thus, a 7-point favorite would have a 100%-30.6% = 69.4% chance of winning.
It should be mentioned that the estimated probability does not take into consideration key numbers. For example, the difference in probability of winning between a 2.5- and 3.5-point underdog would likely be more than the 42.7% - 39.9% = 2.8% suggested in the estimated probability column.
I also looked at this curve by whether it was a home or away underdog but did not find it statistically different enough to pay special treatment to.
The following graph illustrates the actual and estimated probabilities of winning.
Buying Extra Points
The following table shows the probability of winning, not counting ties, after getting an extra 0.5 to 2.5 points according to the fair spread. For example, you consider the fair spread on a team to be +3, but somebody will give you +3.5, then your probability of winning would be 53.42%.Probability of Underdog Winning by Point Spread
| Spread | 0.5 Points | 1.0 Point | 1.5 Points | 2.0 Points | 2.5 Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -21 | 0.520918 | 0.536281 | 0.551179 | 0.558373 | 0.565335 |
| -20.5 | 0.515827 | 0.531190 | 0.538615 | 0.545809 | 0.558769 |
| -20 | 0.515827 | 0.523484 | 0.530910 | 0.544301 | 0.557260 |
| -19.5 | 0.507889 | 0.515546 | 0.529368 | 0.542759 | 0.558504 |
| -19 | 0.507889 | 0.522142 | 0.535964 | 0.552234 | 0.567979 |
| -18.5 | 0.514684 | 0.528938 | 0.545731 | 0.562001 | 0.568052 |
| -18 | 0.514684 | 0.532002 | 0.548795 | 0.555047 | 0.561098 |
| -17.5 | 0.517841 | 0.535159 | 0.541612 | 0.547864 | 0.553831 |
| -17 | 0.517841 | 0.524496 | 0.530949 | 0.537114 | 0.543082 |
| -16.5 | 0.506856 | 0.513510 | 0.519874 | 0.526040 | 0.544503 |
| -16 | 0.506856 | 0.513418 | 0.519782 | 0.538860 | 0.557322 |
| -15.5 | 0.506761 | 0.513324 | 0.533015 | 0.552092 | 0.560656 |
| -15 | 0.506761 | 0.527067 | 0.546758 | 0.555606 | 0.564170 |
| -14.5 | 0.520920 | 0.541225 | 0.550359 | 0.559207 | 0.567110 |
| -14 | 0.520920 | 0.530338 | 0.539471 | 0.547638 | 0.555541 |
| -13.5 | 0.509703 | 0.519121 | 0.527551 | 0.535717 | 0.544988 |
| -13 | 0.509703 | 0.518395 | 0.526824 | 0.536404 | 0.545675 |
| -12.5 | 0.508955 | 0.517647 | 0.527535 | 0.537115 | 0.555027 |
| -12 | 0.508955 | 0.519152 | 0.529040 | 0.547548 | 0.565460 |
| -11.5 | 0.510505 | 0.520702 | 0.539805 | 0.558313 | 0.563415 |
| -11 | 0.510505 | 0.530205 | 0.549309 | 0.554580 | 0.559682 |
| -10.5 | 0.520296 | 0.539995 | 0.545437 | 0.550708 | 0.559247 |
| -10 | 0.520296 | 0.525907 | 0.531348 | 0.540171 | 0.548710 |
| -9.5 | 0.505781 | 0.511392 | 0.520499 | 0.529322 | 0.554459 |
| -9 | 0.505781 | 0.515172 | 0.524279 | 0.550252 | 0.575390 |
| -8.5 | 0.509675 | 0.519066 | 0.545876 | 0.571850 | 0.582682 |
| -8 | 0.509675 | 0.537321 | 0.564131 | 0.575324 | 0.586157 |
| -7.5 | 0.528483 | 0.556129 | 0.567682 | 0.578875 | 0.588874 |
| -7 | 0.528483 | 0.540396 | 0.551950 | 0.562281 | 0.572279 |
| -6.5 | 0.512274 | 0.524188 | 0.534852 | 0.545183 | 0.559015 |
| -6 | 0.512274 | 0.523271 | 0.533934 | 0.548227 | 0.562059 |
| -5.5 | 0.511329 | 0.522325 | 0.537078 | 0.551370 | 0.581534 |
| -5 | 0.511329 | 0.526542 | 0.541294 | 0.572461 | 0.602625 |
| -4.5 | 0.515673 | 0.530885 | 0.563056 | 0.594223 | 0.604564 |
| -4 | 0.515673 | 0.548847 | 0.581017 | 0.591702 | 0.602043 |
| -3.5 | 0.534178 | 0.567352 | 0.578381 | 0.589065 | 0.601917 |
| -3 | 0.534178 | 0.545551 | 0.556579 | 0.569858 | 0.582709 |
| -2.5 | 0.511717 | 0.523090 | 0.536796 | 0.550075 | 0.554541 |
| -2 | 0.511717 | 0.525851 | 0.539557 | 0.544172 | 0.548638 |
| -1.5 | 0.514561 | 0.528695 | 0.533459 | 0.538074 | 0.550925 |
| -1 | 0.514561 | 0.519473 | 0.524237 | 0.537516 | 0.550367 |
| 0 | 0.505061 | 0.519194 | 0.532901 | 0.543586 | 0.553926 |
| 1 | 0.514561 | 0.525934 | 0.536963 | 0.568130 | 0.598294 |
| 1.5 | 0.511717 | 0.523090 | 0.555260 | 0.586428 | 0.600260 |
| 2 | 0.511717 | 0.544891 | 0.577062 | 0.591354 | 0.605186 |
| 2.5 | 0.534178 | 0.567352 | 0.582104 | 0.596396 | 0.606395 |
| 3 | 0.534178 | 0.549390 | 0.564143 | 0.574474 | 0.584472 |
| 3.5 | 0.515673 | 0.530885 | 0.541549 | 0.551880 | 0.562713 |
| 4 | 0.515673 | 0.526669 | 0.537333 | 0.548526 | 0.559359 |
| 4.5 | 0.511329 | 0.522325 | 0.533879 | 0.545072 | 0.570209 |
| 5 | 0.511329 | 0.523243 | 0.534796 | 0.560770 | 0.585907 |
| 5.5 | 0.512274 | 0.524188 | 0.550998 | 0.576972 | 0.585510 |
| 6 | 0.512274 | 0.539921 | 0.566731 | 0.575553 | 0.584092 |
| 6.5 | 0.528483 | 0.556129 | 0.565236 | 0.574058 | 0.579160 |
| 7 | 0.528483 | 0.537874 | 0.546980 | 0.552252 | 0.557354 |
| 7.5 | 0.509675 | 0.519066 | 0.524507 | 0.529779 | 0.547691 |
| 8 | 0.509675 | 0.515286 | 0.520728 | 0.539235 | 0.557147 |
| 8.5 | 0.505781 | 0.511392 | 0.530496 | 0.549004 | 0.558275 |
| 9 | 0.505781 | 0.525481 | 0.544584 | 0.554164 | 0.563435 |
| 9.5 | 0.520296 | 0.539995 | 0.549884 | 0.559463 | 0.567367 |
| 10 | 0.520296 | 0.530492 | 0.540380 | 0.548547 | 0.556450 |
| 10.5 | 0.510505 | 0.520702 | 0.529131 | 0.537297 | 0.545861 |
| 11 | 0.510505 | 0.519197 | 0.527626 | 0.536475 | 0.545038 |
| 11.5 | 0.508955 | 0.517647 | 0.526781 | 0.535629 | 0.554092 |
| 12 | 0.508955 | 0.518373 | 0.527507 | 0.546584 | 0.565046 |
| 12.5 | 0.509703 | 0.519121 | 0.538813 | 0.557890 | 0.563857 |
| 13 | 0.509703 | 0.530009 | 0.549700 | 0.555866 | 0.561833 |
| 13.5 | 0.520920 | 0.541225 | 0.547589 | 0.553755 | 0.559806 |
| 14 | 0.520920 | 0.527482 | 0.533846 | 0.540098 | 0.546149 |
| 14.5 | 0.506761 | 0.513324 | 0.519777 | 0.526029 | 0.541775 |
| 15 | 0.506761 | 0.513416 | 0.519869 | 0.536138 | 0.551884 |
| 15.5 | 0.506856 | 0.513510 | 0.530304 | 0.546573 | 0.559533 |
| 16 | 0.506856 | 0.524173 | 0.540967 | 0.554358 | 0.567317 |
| 16.5 | 0.517841 | 0.535159 | 0.548981 | 0.562372 | 0.569334 |
| 17 | 0.517841 | 0.532095 | 0.545917 | 0.553110 | 0.560072 |
| 17.5 | 0.514684 | 0.528938 | 0.536363 | 0.543557 | 0.557525 |
| 18 | 0.514684 | 0.522341 | 0.529767 | 0.544200 | 0.558168 |
| 18.5 | 0.507889 | 0.515546 | 0.530443 | 0.544877 | 0.563338 |
| 19 | 0.507889 | 0.523251 | 0.538149 | 0.557225 | 0.575686 |
| 19.5 | 0.515827 | 0.531190 | 0.550880 | 0.569956 | |
| 20 | 0.515827 | 0.536132 | 0.555822 | ||
| 20.5 | 0.520918 | 0.541223 | |||
| 21 | 0.520918 |
A practical use for the table above is in buying an extra half point. Most casinos will give you an extra half point if you lay 120, instead of the usual 110. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected value off of the five best spreads to buy a half point off of. Assuming a fair spread, the house edge laying 110 is 4.76%, this is worth the price to buy the extra half point off of spread of 3, 7, 10, and 14 only.
Value of Buying a Half Point by Point Spread
| Spread | Prob. Win |
Expected Value |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 53.42% | -2.07% |
| 7 | 52.85% | -3.11% |
| 14 | 52.09% | -4.50% |
| 10 | 52.03% | -4.61% |
| 17 | 51.78% | -5.06% |
Teasers
Teasers are basically a sucker bet. Under the exact right circumstances, with generous odds, they can be a good bet. However, for recreational bettors picking teasers arbitrarily, they are an awful value.For those who don't know, a teaser is like a parlay, except in the case of college football the player gets 6 to 7.5 extra points per leg. For these extra points, the wins are significantly less than a parlay.
To begin my analysis, the following table shows the probability of winning each leg with 6 to 7.5 extra points and according to whether the player is teasing a side, under, over, or doing a "Wong" teaser, which I'll explain momentarily.
Probability of each Teaser Leg Winning
| Points | Side | Under | Over | Wong |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 65.39% | 65.39% | 63.31% | 71.57% |
| 6.5 | 66.49% | 66.47% | 64.34% | |
| 7 | 67.72% | 67.58% | 65.47% | |
| 7.5 | 68.87% | 68.63% | 66.67% |
Before going further, let me explain what a Wong Teaser is. As far as I know, the first time the idea was published was in Stanford Wong's book Sharp Sports Betting. Wong correctly noted that 3 and 7 were the two most common margins of victory in the NFL. He advised teasing over these two key numbers. It works only fair spreads of +1.5 to +2.5 and -7.5 to -8.5. For example, teasing a +2 underdog to +8, allowing the team to lose by a field goal or touchdown and still cover the spread.
While this could be done with any number of points in the teaser, it is only worthwhile with six-point teasers, due to the depressed payouts getting more than six points.
That said, the next table shows the expected value of six-point teasers by the various number of picks and pays I have seen and across the type of bet being teased.
Expected Value of 6-Point Teasers
| Legs | Pays | Side | Under | Over | Wong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5 to 6 | -21.60% | -21.62% | -26.52% | -6.08% |
| 2 | 1 | -14.48% | -14.49% | -19.84% | 2.45% |
| 3 | 1.4 | -32.89% | -32.91% | -39.10% | -12.00% |
| 3 | 1.6 | -27.30% | -27.32% | -34.03% | -4.67% |
| 3 | 1.7 | -24.50% | -24.52% | -31.49% | -1.01% |
| 3 | 1.8 | -21.71% | -21.73% | -28.95% | 2.66% |
| 4 | 2.5 | -36.00% | -36.03% | -43.77% | -8.15% |
| 4 | 2.8 | -30.52% | -30.54% | -38.95% | -0.28% |
| 4 | 3 | -26.86% | -26.89% | -35.74% | 4.97% |
| 5 | 4 | -40.22% | -40.24% | -49.15% | -6.09% |
| 5 | 4.5 | -34.24% | -34.27% | -44.06% | 3.30% |
| 6 | 6 | -45.27% | -45.30% | -54.93% | -5.90% |
| 6 | 6.5 | -41.36% | -41.39% | -51.71% | 0.82% |
| 6 | 7 | -37.45% | -37.49% | -48.49% | 7.54% |
| 7 | 9 | -48.87% | -48.91% | -59.24% | -3.78% |
| 7 | 10 | -43.76% | -43.80% | -55.16% | 5.84% |
| 8 | 10 | -63.22% | -63.25% | -71.61% | -24.25% |
| 8 | 12 | -56.54% | -56.57% | -66.45% | -10.48% |
As you can see, there are a lot of very negative expected values in the table above. The few positive ones are for Wong teasers only and only under the most generous odds, which can be hard to find. The liberal pays with the positive expected value for Wong teasers can be found at Coast/Boyd casinos.
I should also state that there were only 1,780 games in my data that had a spread in the Wong teaser range. The 71.57% chance I show of a Wong teaser winning should be considered rather rough, with a standard deviation of 1.70%. Other research leads me to believe the probability of a Wong teaser winning any given leg is closer to 68.9%.
The next table shows the expected value for 6.5-point teasers. As mentioned before, Wong teasers are only good when buying six points, so that column is omitted from the 6.5, 7, and 7.5-point tables.
Expected Value of 6.5-Point Teasers
| Legs | Pays | Side | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10 to 13 | -21.80% | -21.83% | -26.77% |
| 2 | 5 to 6 | -18.96% | -19.00% | -24.12% |
| 2 | 10 to 11 | -15.61% | -15.65% | -20.98% |
| 3 | 1.2 | -35.35% | -35.39% | -41.42% |
| 3 | 1.5 | -26.53% | -26.58% | -33.43% |
| 3 | 1.6 | -23.59% | -23.64% | -30.76% |
| 4 | 2 | -41.38% | -41.43% | -48.60% |
| 4 | 2.5 | -31.61% | -31.67% | -40.04% |
| 4 | 3 | -21.84% | -21.91% | -31.47% |
| 5 | 3.5 | -41.54% | -41.61% | -50.40% |
| 5 | 4 | -35.05% | -35.12% | -44.89% |
| 5 | 4.5 | -28.55% | -28.63% | -39.38% |
| 6 | 5 | -48.18% | -48.25% | -57.45% |
| 6 | 5.5 | -43.86% | -43.93% | -53.91% |
| 6 | 6 | -39.54% | -39.62% | -50.36% |
| 6 | 7 | -30.91% | -31.00% | -43.27% |
| 7 | 8 | -48.32% | -48.40% | -58.94% |
| 7 | 9 | -42.58% | -42.67% | -54.38% |
| 8 | 9 | -61.82% | -61.89% | -70.65% |
| 8 | 10 | -58.01% | -58.08% | -67.71% |
| 8 | 12 | -50.37% | -50.46% | -61.84% |
The next table shows the expected values for 7-point college football teasers.
Expected Value of 7-Point Teasers
| Legs | Pays | Side | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5 to 7 | -21.39% | -21.70% | -26.53% |
| 2 | 10 to 13 | -18.87% | -19.19% | -24.17% |
| 2 | 5 to 6 | -15.93% | -16.27% | -21.42% |
| 3 | 1 | -37.89% | -38.27% | -43.88% |
| 3 | 1.2 | -31.68% | -32.09% | -38.27% |
| 3 | 1.4 | -25.47% | -25.92% | -32.66% |
| 3 | 1.5 | -22.37% | -22.83% | -29.85% |
| 4 | 1.8 | -41.12% | -41.59% | -48.57% |
| 4 | 2 | -36.92% | -37.42% | -44.89% |
| 4 | 2.5 | -26.40% | -26.99% | -35.71% |
| 5 | 3 | -43.04% | -43.61% | -51.90% |
| 5 | 3.5 | -35.92% | -36.56% | -45.88% |
| 6 | 4 | -51.79% | -52.36% | -60.63% |
| 6 | 5 | -42.14% | -42.84% | -52.76% |
| 6 | 6 | -32.50% | -33.31% | -44.89% |
| 7 | 6.5 | -51.03% | -51.71% | -61.34% |
| 7 | 7 | -47.76% | -48.49% | -58.77% |
| 7 | 8 | -41.23% | -42.05% | -53.61% |
| 8 | 9 | -55.78% | -56.49% | -66.26% |
| 8 | 12 | -42.52% | -43.43% | -56.13% |
The next table shows the expected values for 7.5-point college football teasers.
Expected Value of 7.5-Point Teasers
| Legs | Pays | Side | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5 to 7 | -18.68% | -19.26% | -23.81% |
| 2 | 2 to 3 | -20.94% | -21.50% | -25.93% |
| 3 | 1.2 | -28.13% | -28.89% | -34.81% |
| 3 | 1.5 | -18.33% | -19.19% | -25.93% |
| 4 | 1.8 | -37.00% | -37.89% | -44.69% |
| 4 | 2 | -32.50% | -33.45% | -40.74% |
| 5 | 3 | -38.01% | -39.10% | -47.33% |
| 5 | 3.5 | -30.27% | -31.49% | -40.74% |
| 6 | 4 | -46.64% | -47.76% | -56.10% |
| 6 | 5 | -35.96% | -37.31% | -47.33% |
| 7 | 7 | -41.19% | -42.63% | -53.18% |
| 8 | 10 | -44.31% | -45.87% | -57.08% |
To conclude the topic of college football teasers, stay away from them with a 10-foot pole unless you are crossing both the 3 and 7 point margins of victory with a six-point teaser on every leg as well as getting the liberal Coast/Boyd casino odds.