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Betting the NFL
Introduction
This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.
Unless otherwise stated, the source of this data is every NFL game played from the 2006 season through and including week 1 of the 2018 season. This is a total of 3,220 games. The data is available for free at Australia Sports Betting.
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 21st 8pm | Cleveland Browns - Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (36.5)
|
Cleveland Browns have a strong defense this season. Pittsburgh Steelers rely on their passing game. Expect a close match, but turnovers could decide the outcome. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - Kansas City Chiefs |
|
-110 (11)
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs are favorites with a strong offense, while Carolina Panthers struggle defensively. Consider betting on Chiefs to cover the spread due to their superior performance this season. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Chicago Bears - Minnesota Vikings |
162
|
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Vikings are favored due to stronger offense, while Bears have a chance if their defense can contain Minnesota's key players. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Washington Commanders - Dallas Cowboys |
|
|
|
Dallas Cowboys are favored, strong defense crucial. Washington Commanders need offensive consistency. Watch for key player matchups. Weather and home advantage might influence outcomes. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - Detroit Lions |
|
|
-110 (50)
|
Colts' strong defense challenges Lions' passing attack. Key players: Colts' Taylor, Lions' Goff. Watch for turnovers. Weather impact minimal. Both teams have playoff ambitions. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Houston Texans - Tennessee Titans |
|
|
|
Injuries and defensive matchups play crucial roles. Consider home advantage, recent form, and key player performance. Turnover battle significantly impacts the outcome. Monitor quarterback play for strategic betting. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - New England Patriots |
|
|
-110 (46)
|
Miami Dolphins bring offensive firepower. Patriots' defense remains strong. Dolphins' speed vs. Patriots' tactics. Watch for turnovers. Key players: Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones. Weather may influence outcomes. Special teams crucial. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | New York Giants - Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
-105 (6)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
The Giants face an uphill battle against a strong Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay's defense and Tom Brady's leadership make them favorites. Giants need a strong offense to compete. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - Denver Broncos |
|
-110 (6)
|
-110 (41)
|
Raiders vs. Broncos: Both teams have strong defenses but inconsistent offenses. Home-field advantage could favor Broncos. Key injuries may impact the outcome. Consider under for total points. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - Seattle Seahawks |
-105
|
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Cardinals face Seahawks. Key players to watch: Kyler Murray for Arizona, D.K. Metcalf for Seattle. Check team performance under high pressure situations. Betting lines favor Seattle. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Green Bay Packers - San Francisco 49ers |
|
-105 (-2)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Consider 49ers' strong defense and Packers' recent form. Key players may impact odds. Weather may influence game dynamics. Home advantage could benefit 49ers. |
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 24th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - Philadelphia Eagles |
|
|
|
The Eagles' strong offense faces the Rams' resilient defense. Key players could swing the game. Monitor injuries and weather conditions as they may impact betting odds. |
| Mon Nov 25th 8pm | Los Angeles Chargers - Baltimore Ravens |
130
|
|
|
Chargers' high-powered offense faces Ravens' resilient defense. Expect a high-scoring game with potential turnovers. Key players: Herbert (LAC), Jackson (BAL). Betting focus: point spread, over/under. |
| Thu Nov 28th 12pm | Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears |
|
|
-110 (48.5)
|
Detroit Lions have momentum with a strong offense; Chicago Bears face defensive challenges, making Lions likely favorites. Watch QB performances and turnovers for game impact. |
| Thu Nov 28th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - New York Giants |
-145
|
-110 (-2.5)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
The Dallas Cowboys' strong offense clashes with the New York Giants' resilient defense. Watch for standout performances from key players and potential game-changing turnovers. Betting leans towards the Cowboys. |
| Thu Nov 28th 8pm | Green Bay Packers - Miami Dolphins |
|
-110 (-3.5)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Packers-Dolphins clash highlights dynamic offenses. Watch for Rodgers’ passing skills against Miami’s defense. Dolphins’ home advantage may be crucial. Close game expected with potential upsets. Key players could decide outcome. |
| Fri Nov 29th 3pm | Kansas City Chiefs - Las Vegas Raiders |
-355
|
|
-110 (44)
|
Kansas City Chiefs are favored. Key players: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce. Raiders need strong defense. Watch for turnovers. Expect high scoring game. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - Arizona Cardinals |
|
-110 (-3.5)
|
-110 (47)
|
Vikings strong offense faces Cardinals’ dynamic defense. Key players: Jefferson for Vikings, Simmons for Cardinals. Weather clear, slight edge to Vikings. Monitor injuries. Bet carefully, unpredictable game. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - Los Angeles Chargers |
|
-110 (1.5)
|
-110 (47)
|
The Falcons' run game faces Chargers' weak rush defense. Betting trends favor the Chargers due to better passing offense. Watch injury reports and weather conditions for a closer view. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-110 (-1.5)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers face off with dynamic offenses. Bengals' Joe Burrow shows consistency, while Steelers' defense can capitalize on turnovers. A thrilling matchup is expected. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - Houston Texans |
|
-105 (6.5)
|
-110 (42.5)
|
Jaguars have a stronger roster, but Texans could surprise at home. Key players to watch: Trevor Lawrence and Dameon Pierce. Weather and turnovers will influence the outcome. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | New England Patriots - Indianapolis Colts |
152
|
100 (2.5)
|
-110 (43)
|
The Patriots' strong defense may challenge the Colts' offense. Monitor injuries and weather conditions. Patriots slight favorites. Consider point spread bets. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | New York Jets - Seattle Seahawks |
|
-110 (-1.5)
|
-110 (44)
|
The Jets face a strong Seahawks defense. Key players return for both teams. Weather could be a factor. Watch betting lines, as matchups favor Seahawks’ home advantage. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Washington Commanders - Tennessee Titans |
|
-110 (-7)
|
-110 (44.5)
|
Commanders vs Titans: Titans have edge with strong defense; focus on their rushing game. Commanders’ offense inconsistent but can surprise. Key player injuries may impact both teams. |
| Sun Dec 1st 4pm | Carolina Panthers - Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
-110 (6.5)
|
-110 (44)
|
Panthers focusing on ground game to exploit Bucs' weak run defense. Buccaneers rely on Brady's passing against Carolina's vulnerable secondary. Close matchup expected with defensive plays being crucial. |
| Sun Dec 1st 4pm | New Orleans Saints - Los Angeles Rams |
|
100 (2.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
The Saints' strong offense might outperform the Rams' defense. Key players to watch include Alvin Kamara for Saints and Aaron Donald for Rams. Consider betting on a high-scoring game. |
| Sun Dec 1st 4pm | Baltimore Ravens - Philadelphia Eagles |
|
-105 (-3)
|
-110 (50.5)
|
The Ravens' defense is solid, but the Eagles' high-scoring offense could pose a challenge. Key players and turnovers may determine the outcome of this closely-matched game. |
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Dec 1st 8pm | Buffalo Bills - San Francisco 49ers |
|
-110 (-3.5)
|
-110 (47)
|
Buffalo Bills' strong defense clashes with San Francisco 49ers' versatile offense. Key players: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs. Watch injury reports closely. Weather may impact game's pace. Bet cautiously. |
| Mon Dec 2nd 7pm | Denver Broncos - Cleveland Browns |
135
|
-110 (-6.5)
|
-110 (40.5)
|
Denver Broncos are underdogs against Cleveland Browns, who have a strong defense. Consider Browns' home advantage but watch Denver's potential for a surprise performance. |
Point Spread Bets
I admit "point spread bet" is not a common term in sports betting, but I'm trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a "straight bet" but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns.
Point Spread Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All home | 1,484 | 1,680 | 56 | 46.90% | 1.26% | -2.46 | -10.28% |
| All away | 1,680 | 1,484 | 56 | 53.10% | 1.26% | 2.46 | 1.34% |
| All favorite | 1,488 | 1,617 | 56 | 47.92% | 1.27% | -1.64 | -8.36% |
| All underdog | 1,617 | 1,488 | 56 | 52.08% | 1.27% | 1.64 | -0.57% |
| Home underdog | 492 | 520 | 20 | 48.62% | 2.22% | -0.62 | -7.05% |
| Home favorite | 968 | 1,125 | 36 | 46.25% | 1.55% | -2.43 | -11.51% |
| Away underdog | 1,125 | 968 | 36 | 53.75% | 1.55% | 2.43 | 2.57% |
| Away favorite | 520 | 492 | 20 | 51.38% | 2.22% | 0.62 | -1.87% |
| Home pick | 24 | 35 | 0 | 40.68% | 9.21% | -1.01 | -22.34% |
| Away pick | 35 | 24 | 0 | 59.32% | 9.21% | 1.01 | 13.25% |
| All | 3,164 | 3,164 | 112 | 50.00% | 0.89% | 0.00 | -4.47% |
Explanation of column headings:
- Bet: Type of bet
- Wins: Number of wins against point spread
- Losses: Number of losses against point spread
- Pushes: Number of pushes against point spread
- Win Rate: Ratio of wins to bets resolved
- Std. Dev.: One standard deviation in the mean of the win rate, assuming every bet had a theoretical chance of winning of 50%.
- N.S.D: Number of standard deviations that the actual results differ from an expected win rate of 50%.
- Return: Ratio of money won (lost = negative) to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10.
Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the results of under and over bets. It shows both had nearly a 50% chance of winning. In face, over 3,220 games the over won just two more times than the under. I thought under bets would have performed better, but I've been wrong before.
Under and Over Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 1,586 | 1,576 | 58 | 50.16% | 1.26% | 0.13 | -4.17% |
| Under | 1,576 | 1,586 | 58 | 49.84% | 1.26% | -0.13 | -4.76% |
Money Lines
The following brief table shows the result of money line bets.
Money Line Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Return |
|---|---|
| Underdog | -3.91% |
| Favorite | -6.24% |
| All | -5.08% |
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning for underdogs of 1 to 14.5 points. Obviously, the probability of the favorite winning would be 100% less the probability of the underdog winning. The estimated probability of winning uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFL
| Spread | Games | Wins | Actual Probability |
Estimated Probability |
Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 69 | 49.6% | 46.4% | 115 |
| 1.5 | 88 | 43 | 48.9% | 44.6% | 124 |
| 2 | 126 | 51 | 40.5% | 42.9% | 133 |
| 2.5 | 224 | 98 | 43.8% | 41.1% | 143 |
| 3 | 517 | 235 | 45.5% | 39.4% | 154 |
| 3.5 | 279 | 107 | 38.4% | 37.7% | 165 |
| 4 | 157 | 59 | 37.6% | 36.1% | 177 |
| 4.5 | 128 | 47 | 36.7% | 34.4% | 191 |
| 5 | 89 | 23 | 25.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
| 5.5 | 118 | 38 | 32.2% | 31.3% | 220 |
| 6 | 133 | 45 | 33.8% | 29.7% | 236 |
| 6.5 | 147 | 42 | 28.6% | 28.3% | 254 |
| 7 | 220 | 51 | 23.2% | 26.8% | 273 |
| 7.5 | 146 | 36 | 24.7% | 25.5% | 293 |
| 8 | 65 | 14 | 21.5% | 24.1% | 315 |
| 8.5 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 22.8% | 338 |
| 9 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 21.6% | 363 |
| 9.5 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 20.4% | 390 |
| 10 | 104 | 19 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 419 |
| 10.5 | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 18.2% | 450 |
| 11 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 17.1% | 483 |
| 11.5 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 16.1% | 519 |
| 12 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 15.2% | 558 |
| 12.5 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 14.3% | 599 |
| 13 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 644 |
| 13.5 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 12.6% | 692 |
| 14 | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | 11.9% | 743 |
| 14.5 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11.1% | 798 |
If you want to estimate the probability of winning of an underdog of more than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any probability under 50% to a fair money line, the formula is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the probability of winning. To convert any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the formula is -100*p/(1-p).
Parlays
Here is my quick advice on parlays:
- Betting off the board, do not pick more than three teams or totals at -110 odds.
- On parlay cards, take advantage of stale lines on the cards by comparing them to the current odds. It is especially beneficial in football to capture a movement off of 3 points, for example a team is +2.5 on the board and +3 on the card.
I have much more information about parlays in my page on Parlay Bets in the NFL.
Teasers
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
- If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry's Nugget.
- Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
- Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
- If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
- On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the "off the board" point spread.
I have lots more information about teasers in my page on Teaser Bets in the NFL.
Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.
Margin of Victory in the NFL
| MOV | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.7% |
| 2 | 3.8% |
| 3 | 14.5% |
| 4 | 5.2% |
| 5 | 3.4% |
| 6 | 6.2% |
| 7 | 9.2% |
| 8 | 3.6% |
| 9 | 1.7% |
| 10 | 5.6% |
| 11 | 2.5% |
| 12 | 1.5% |
| 13 | 2.9% |
| 14 | 4.8% |
| 15 | 1.5% |
| 16 | 2.1% |
| 17 | 3.1% |
| 18 | 2.3% |
| 19 | 1.1% |
| 20 | 2.4% |
| 21 | 3.2% |
| 22+ | 15.7% |
| Total | 100.0% |
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Anything else and it is a bad value.
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
| Spread | Fair Price |
|---|---|
| 3 | 128.1 |
| 4 | 116.9 |
| 7 | 121.9 |
| 10 | 117.9 |
| 14 | 117.0 |
Buying Half a Point off the Total
The overall fair number of basis points to pay for a half point off the total is 8.12. In other words, you should be indifferent to laying 11 to win 10 and laying 118.12 to win 10 with an extra half point. The following table shows my suggested fair price to pay to capture totals from 30 to 60. By "capture" I mean turn a push into a win or a loss into a push. If you have to lay 10 basis points for the half point, my table shows that it is never a good value, although sometimes it is close. An explanation of the column headings follows the table.
Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFL
| Total Points |
Num. in Sample |
Probability | Fair Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 89 | 0.027640 | 6.58 |
| 31 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 32 | 42 | 0.013043 | 3.06 |
| 33 | 102 | 0.031677 | 7.58 |
| 34 | 83 | 0.025776 | 6.13 |
| 35 | 52 | 0.016149 | 3.80 |
| 36 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 37 | 120 | 0.037267 | 8.98 |
| 38 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 39 | 62 | 0.019255 | 4.54 |
| 40 | 105 | 0.032609 | 7.81 |
| 41 | 121 | 0.037578 | 9.05 |
| 42 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 43 | 126 | 0.039130 | 9.45 |
| 44 | 123 | 0.038199 | 9.21 |
| 45 | 82 | 0.025466 | 6.05 |
| 46 | 64 | 0.019876 | 4.69 |
| 47 | 113 | 0.035093 | 8.43 |
| 48 | 98 | 0.030435 | 7.27 |
| 49 | 61 | 0.018944 | 4.47 |
| 50 | 81 | 0.025155 | 5.98 |
| 51 | 119 | 0.036957 | 8.90 |
| 52 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 53 | 51 | 0.015839 | 3.72 |
| 54 | 66 | 0.020497 | 4.84 |
| 55 | 85 | 0.026398 | 6.28 |
| 56 | 25 | 0.007764 | 1.81 |
| 57 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 58 | 58 | 0.018012 | 4.24 |
| 59 | 40 | 0.012422 | 2.91 |
| 60 | 18 | 0.005590 | 1.30 |
Key to column headings:
- Total Points = Total point scored in game
- Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
- Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
My page on alternate point spreads shows what it is worth to buy or sell up to seven points off the spread. That page has not been updated with the latest data yet.
Example
Assume the over/under on a game is exactly 43 points. My table shows the fair number of basis points to pay to capture the 43 is 9.45. This means you should be indifferent to laying 110 on the under 43 or over 43 to laying 119.45 on the under 43.5 or over 42.5.
Internal Links
- Alternate point spread calculator.
- Parlay calculator — What a parlay pay composed of events of miscellaneous odds should pay.
- Proposition bet calculator — Fair line for lots of common prop bets, given the point spread and total.
- NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020 — Historical scoring data from 2000 to 2020.
- Super Bowl proposition bets — Repository of Super Bowl proposition bet sheets from Las Vegas