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Betting the NFL
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Introduction
This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.
Unless otherwise stated, the source of this data is every NFL game played from the 2006 season through and including week 1 of the 2018 season. This is a total of 3,220 games. The data is available for free at Australia Sports Betting.
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sat Dec 21st 1pm
Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans |
|
100 (-3.5)
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs possess a stronger roster and home advantage, making them favorites against Houston Texans, despite Texans' potential for an upset. |
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Sat Dec 21st 4pm
Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
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-110 (44.5)
|
Ravens and Steelers rivalry is intense. Ravens’ offense is strong but inconsistent. Steelers' defense is tough. Key factors: turnovers and home-field advantage. Both teams have passionate fanbases. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals |
|
|
-110 (47)
|
Expect an intense matchup. Panthers aim to dominate with McCaffrey, while Cardinals rely on Murray's agility. Defensive strategies will be crucial. Watch for turnovers impacting game flow. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Atlanta Falcons New York Giants |
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The Falcons' offense is strong, but their defense struggles. Giants show solid defense, but lack offensive consistency. Look for turnovers and QB performance to be key factors. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Buffalo Bills New England Patriots |
|
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-110 (46.5)
|
Buffalo's strong offense faces Patriots' resilient defense. Key players: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs vs. Mac Jones, Matthew Judon. Consider home advantage, weather, and recent form for placing bets. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Chicago Bears Detroit Lions |
|
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-110 (48)
|
The Bears' defense struggles against high-powered offenses. Lions have a potent passing game, making them favored. Weather conditions could influence play. Monitor any injuries for impact on betting lines. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans |
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-110 (42.5)
|
Colts and Titans have a strong rivalry. Colts excel in passing; Titans dominate the ground game. Key matchup: Colts’ defense vs. Derrick Henry. Weather could impact passing plays. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
New York Jets Los Angeles Rams |
|
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-110 (46.5)
|
Jets rely on solid defense; Rams boast a stronger offense. Watch for quarterback matchups. Possible low-scoring game. Special teams could decide. Bet cautiously. |
|
Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Washington Commanders Philadelphia Eagles |
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-110 (45.5)
|
Eagles are favored with strong offense. Commanders need defensive strategy. Key player performance could shift odds. Watch for turnovers and special teams impact. Betting line fluctuates with injuries. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 1pm
Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns |
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Consider the Bengals' strong offense against the Browns' defense. Check injury reports. Weather could affect gameplay. Recent head-to-head statistics and home-field advantage are pivotal for betting decisions. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Seattle Seahawks Minnesota Vikings |
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|
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Seahawks' strong offense clashes with Vikings' tight defense. Key players: Wilson, Cook. Home advantage favors Vikings. Monitor weather conditions. Bet cautiously, as both teams show unpredictable performances. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Las Vegas Raiders Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
-110 (-2)
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-110 (40.5)
|
Las Vegas Raiders boast a strong offense while Jaguars' defense shows resilience. Monitor line movement and injury reports. Raiders slightly favored, expect a close game with potential high scoring. |
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Sun Dec 22nd 4pm
Miami Dolphins San Francisco 49ers |
-105
|
|
|
The Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers face off in a close matchup. Evaluate recent performance, injuries, and weather conditions before placing your bets. Home advantage favors the 49ers. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 22nd 8pm
Dallas Cowboys Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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Cowboys' strong offense faces Buccaneers' solid defense. Key players and turnovers will likely decide the game's outcome. Watch for momentum shifts in crucial moments. |
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Mon Dec 23rd 8pm
Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints |
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-110 (-14)
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-110 (42.5)
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Green Bay Packers may face challenges against New Orleans Saints due to strong Saints defense. Key players to watch: Aaron Rodgers and Alvin Kamara. Weather could impact play strategies. |
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Wed Dec 25th 4pm
Pittsburgh Steelers Kansas City Chiefs |
|
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-110 (42.5)
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Pittsburgh's defense meets Kansas City's high-scoring offense; pivotal match for playoff positions. Watch for Mahomes' passes and Steelers' counter play. Weather could impact game dynamics. |
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Wed Dec 25th 8pm
Houston Texans Baltimore Ravens |
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-110 (3)
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-110 (47.5)
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Baltimore Ravens likely favored. Monitor Texans' rookie QB play. Consider Ravens' home-field advantage and recent performance. Weather conditions may influence the game strategy. Evaluate injury reports. |
|
Thu Dec 26th 8pm
Chicago Bears Seattle Seahawks |
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-105 (2.5)
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-110 (41.5)
|
Consider the Bears' improving defense against Seattle's inconsistent offense. Watch for weather impact as it could favor the ground game. Key players' injuries might influence the outcome heavily. |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Buffalo Bills New York Jets |
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-105 (-10)
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-110 (48.5)
|
Buffalo Bills strong offense meets New York Jets resilient defense. Watch for key player matchups, turnovers, and weather impacts. Bills favored, but Jets' underdog status could offer value. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Carolina Panthers |
-250
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-110 (-8.5)
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-110 (47.5)
|
Tampa Bay's strong defense faces Carolina's struggling offense. Monitor player injuries. Weather might impact gameplay. Consider betting under on total points and favor Tampa Bay to win. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers |
122
|
-110 (-1.5)
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-110 (48.5)
|
Vikings face Packers, NFC North rivalry. Key players matter: Cousins for Vikings, Love for Packers. Weather at Lambeau Field plays a role. Defense challenges and interceptions can decide winner. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans |
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-110 (-1)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Jaguars' strong offense faces Titans' robust defense. Key players: Jaguars' Lawrence and Titans' Henry. Home advantage may favor Jaguars. Monitor Titans' injuries for betting impact. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
New Orleans Saints Las Vegas Raiders |
|
-110 (-2.5)
|
-110 (40.5)
|
Consider Saints' strong home record and Raiders' travel fatigue. Saints' defense solid, Raiders' offense struggles. Saints favored but expect a close game. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Washington Commanders Atlanta Falcons |
122
|
|
-110 (46)
|
The Commanders' defense may struggle against the Falcons' versatile offense. Betting on Atlanta could be wise as they play strongly at home. Monitor injury reports closely before placing bets. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Cincinnati Bengals Denver Broncos |
|
-105 (-3)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Cincinnati Bengals have strong offense. Denver Broncos rely on solid defense. Key player injuries might affect game outcome. Weather conditions could play a role. Bet cautiously on point spread. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
New York Giants Indianapolis Colts |
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-110 (6.5)
|
-110 (40)
|
The betting insight for New York Giants vs. Indianapolis Colts: Giants' strong offense vs. Colts' inconsistent defense may lean the scale. Consider the home field advantage in Giants' favor. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
New England Patriots Los Angeles Chargers |
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-110 (5.5)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
Patriots' strong defense faces Chargers' dynamic offense. Quarterback matchup is crucial. Both teams aim for playoff contention. Key injuries could impact performance. Weather may play a role. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 4pm
Los Angeles Rams Arizona Cardinals |
|
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-110 (49)
|
Rams' defense outshines Cardinals. Expect high-paced game, Rams likely to cover spread. Key players: Stafford, Kupp. Cardinals need Murray's agility to excel. Watch weather conditions. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 4pm
Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys |
-145
|
-110 (-11)
|
-110 (44.5)
|
Eagles' strong offensive line balances Cowboys' defense. Watch Hurts vs. Prescott duel. Turnovers and home advantage crucial. Eagles favored slightly, but it's a close matchup. Monitor injured players closely. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 29th 8pm
Cleveland Browns Miami Dolphins |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
The Cleveland Browns face the Miami Dolphins. Consider Miami’s strong offense and Cleveland’s inconsistent form. Monitor injury reports and line movements for strategic betting decisions. |
|
Mon Dec 30th 8pm
San Francisco 49ers Detroit Lions |
|
|
-110 (51.5)
|
49ers have a strong defense, but watch out for Lions' offensive push. Injuries could affect performance. Home advantage favors Lions, but 49ers' track record shines. |
Point Spread Bets
I admit "point spread bet" is not a common term in sports betting, but I'm trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a "straight bet" but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns.
Point Spread Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All home | 1,484 | 1,680 | 56 | 46.90% | 1.26% | -2.46 | -10.28% |
| All away | 1,680 | 1,484 | 56 | 53.10% | 1.26% | 2.46 | 1.34% |
| All favorite | 1,488 | 1,617 | 56 | 47.92% | 1.27% | -1.64 | -8.36% |
| All underdog | 1,617 | 1,488 | 56 | 52.08% | 1.27% | 1.64 | -0.57% |
| Home underdog | 492 | 520 | 20 | 48.62% | 2.22% | -0.62 | -7.05% |
| Home favorite | 968 | 1,125 | 36 | 46.25% | 1.55% | -2.43 | -11.51% |
| Away underdog | 1,125 | 968 | 36 | 53.75% | 1.55% | 2.43 | 2.57% |
| Away favorite | 520 | 492 | 20 | 51.38% | 2.22% | 0.62 | -1.87% |
| Home pick | 24 | 35 | 0 | 40.68% | 9.21% | -1.01 | -22.34% |
| Away pick | 35 | 24 | 0 | 59.32% | 9.21% | 1.01 | 13.25% |
| All | 3,164 | 3,164 | 112 | 50.00% | 0.89% | 0.00 | -4.47% |
Explanation of column headings:
- Bet: Type of bet
- Wins: Number of wins against point spread
- Losses: Number of losses against point spread
- Pushes: Number of pushes against point spread
- Win Rate: Ratio of wins to bets resolved
- Std. Dev.: One standard deviation in the mean of the win rate, assuming every bet had a theoretical chance of winning of 50%.
- N.S.D: Number of standard deviations that the actual results differ from an expected win rate of 50%.
- Return: Ratio of money won (lost = negative) to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10.
Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the results of under and over bets. It shows both had nearly a 50% chance of winning. In face, over 3,220 games the over won just two more times than the under. I thought under bets would have performed better, but I've been wrong before.
Under and Over Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 1,586 | 1,576 | 58 | 50.16% | 1.26% | 0.13 | -4.17% |
| Under | 1,576 | 1,586 | 58 | 49.84% | 1.26% | -0.13 | -4.76% |
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Money Lines
The following brief table shows the result of money line bets.
Money Line Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Return |
|---|---|
| Underdog | -3.91% |
| Favorite | -6.24% |
| All | -5.08% |
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning for underdogs of 1 to 14.5 points. Obviously, the probability of the favorite winning would be 100% less the probability of the underdog winning. The estimated probability of winning uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFL
| Spread | Games | Wins | Actual Probability |
Estimated Probability |
Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 69 | 49.6% | 46.4% | 115 |
| 1.5 | 88 | 43 | 48.9% | 44.6% | 124 |
| 2 | 126 | 51 | 40.5% | 42.9% | 133 |
| 2.5 | 224 | 98 | 43.8% | 41.1% | 143 |
| 3 | 517 | 235 | 45.5% | 39.4% | 154 |
| 3.5 | 279 | 107 | 38.4% | 37.7% | 165 |
| 4 | 157 | 59 | 37.6% | 36.1% | 177 |
| 4.5 | 128 | 47 | 36.7% | 34.4% | 191 |
| 5 | 89 | 23 | 25.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
| 5.5 | 118 | 38 | 32.2% | 31.3% | 220 |
| 6 | 133 | 45 | 33.8% | 29.7% | 236 |
| 6.5 | 147 | 42 | 28.6% | 28.3% | 254 |
| 7 | 220 | 51 | 23.2% | 26.8% | 273 |
| 7.5 | 146 | 36 | 24.7% | 25.5% | 293 |
| 8 | 65 | 14 | 21.5% | 24.1% | 315 |
| 8.5 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 22.8% | 338 |
| 9 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 21.6% | 363 |
| 9.5 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 20.4% | 390 |
| 10 | 104 | 19 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 419 |
| 10.5 | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 18.2% | 450 |
| 11 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 17.1% | 483 |
| 11.5 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 16.1% | 519 |
| 12 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 15.2% | 558 |
| 12.5 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 14.3% | 599 |
| 13 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 644 |
| 13.5 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 12.6% | 692 |
| 14 | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | 11.9% | 743 |
| 14.5 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11.1% | 798 |
If you want to estimate the probability of winning of an underdog of more than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any probability under 50% to a fair money line, the formula is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the probability of winning. To convert any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the formula is -100*p/(1-p).
Parlays
Here is my quick advice on parlays:
- Betting off the board, do not pick more than three teams or totals at -110 odds.
- On parlay cards, take advantage of stale lines on the cards by comparing them to the current odds. It is especially beneficial in football to capture a movement off of 3 points, for example a team is +2.5 on the board and +3 on the card.
I have much more information about parlays in my page on Parlay Bets in the NFL.
Teasers
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
- If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry's Nugget.
- Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
- Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
- If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
- On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the "off the board" point spread.
I have lots more information about teasers in my page on Teaser Bets in the NFL.
Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.
Margin of Victory in the NFL
| MOV | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.7% |
| 2 | 3.8% |
| 3 | 14.5% |
| 4 | 5.2% |
| 5 | 3.4% |
| 6 | 6.2% |
| 7 | 9.2% |
| 8 | 3.6% |
| 9 | 1.7% |
| 10 | 5.6% |
| 11 | 2.5% |
| 12 | 1.5% |
| 13 | 2.9% |
| 14 | 4.8% |
| 15 | 1.5% |
| 16 | 2.1% |
| 17 | 3.1% |
| 18 | 2.3% |
| 19 | 1.1% |
| 20 | 2.4% |
| 21 | 3.2% |
| 22+ | 15.7% |
| Total | 100.0% |
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Anything else and it is a bad value.
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
| Spread | Fair Price |
|---|---|
| 3 | 128.1 |
| 4 | 116.9 |
| 7 | 121.9 |
| 10 | 117.9 |
| 14 | 117.0 |
Buying Half a Point off the Total
The overall fair number of basis points to pay for a half point off the total is 8.12. In other words, you should be indifferent to laying 11 to win 10 and laying 118.12 to win 10 with an extra half point. The following table shows my suggested fair price to pay to capture totals from 30 to 60. By "capture" I mean turn a push into a win or a loss into a push. If you have to lay 10 basis points for the half point, my table shows that it is never a good value, although sometimes it is close. An explanation of the column headings follows the table.
Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFL
| Total Points |
Num. in Sample |
Probability | Fair Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 89 | 0.027640 | 6.58 |
| 31 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 32 | 42 | 0.013043 | 3.06 |
| 33 | 102 | 0.031677 | 7.58 |
| 34 | 83 | 0.025776 | 6.13 |
| 35 | 52 | 0.016149 | 3.80 |
| 36 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 37 | 120 | 0.037267 | 8.98 |
| 38 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 39 | 62 | 0.019255 | 4.54 |
| 40 | 105 | 0.032609 | 7.81 |
| 41 | 121 | 0.037578 | 9.05 |
| 42 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 43 | 126 | 0.039130 | 9.45 |
| 44 | 123 | 0.038199 | 9.21 |
| 45 | 82 | 0.025466 | 6.05 |
| 46 | 64 | 0.019876 | 4.69 |
| 47 | 113 | 0.035093 | 8.43 |
| 48 | 98 | 0.030435 | 7.27 |
| 49 | 61 | 0.018944 | 4.47 |
| 50 | 81 | 0.025155 | 5.98 |
| 51 | 119 | 0.036957 | 8.90 |
| 52 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 53 | 51 | 0.015839 | 3.72 |
| 54 | 66 | 0.020497 | 4.84 |
| 55 | 85 | 0.026398 | 6.28 |
| 56 | 25 | 0.007764 | 1.81 |
| 57 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 58 | 58 | 0.018012 | 4.24 |
| 59 | 40 | 0.012422 | 2.91 |
| 60 | 18 | 0.005590 | 1.30 |
Key to column headings:
- Total Points = Total point scored in game
- Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
- Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
My page on alternate point spreads shows what it is worth to buy or sell up to seven points off the spread. That page has not been updated with the latest data yet.
Example
Assume the over/under on a game is exactly 43 points. My table shows the fair number of basis points to pay to capture the 43 is 9.45. This means you should be indifferent to laying 110 on the under 43 or over 43 to laying 119.45 on the under 43.5 or over 42.5.
Internal Links
- Alternate point spread calculator.
- Parlay calculator — What a parlay pay composed of events of miscellaneous odds should pay.
- Proposition bet calculator — Fair line for lots of common prop bets, given the point spread and total.
- NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020 — Historical scoring data from 2000 to 2020.
- Super Bowl proposition bets — Repository of Super Bowl proposition bet sheets from Las Vegas