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Pleaser bets in the NFL
Disclaimer
The analysis on this page is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started with 1994 because that was the year the two-point conversion rule was introduced. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were created on pleaser cards. The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected return anywhere on this page. At the end of the day, sports are ultimately played by human beings, not statistics, so always take any predictions of future results, based on past results, with a grain of salt.
Introduction
For those who know what a teaser bet is, a pleaser (also known as a reverse teaser) works the same way, except the bettor gets negative points. Obviously, that means a lower probability of winning each leg, so the bettor is compensated with a higher pay table.
For those who don't know what a teaser is, with a parlay, teaser, or pleaser bet, the bettor makes at least two selections against a list of games. The player must win every selection to win the bet. The more selections made, the lower the probability of winning, but the higher the win if every selection does win. Rules vary on what happens in the event of a tie. With a parlay the bettor goes against a point spread with no extra points. With a teaser the bettor gets extra points, but stands to win less. With a pleaser, the bettor gives up points but stands to win more.
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 21st 8pm | Cleveland Browns - Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-110 (3.5)
|
-110 (36.5)
|
Cleveland Browns have a strong defense this season. Pittsburgh Steelers rely on their passing game. Expect a close match, but turnovers could decide the outcome. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - Kansas City Chiefs |
|
-110 (11)
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs are favorites with a strong offense, while Carolina Panthers struggle defensively. Consider betting on Chiefs to cover the spread due to their superior performance this season. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Chicago Bears - Minnesota Vikings |
162
|
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Vikings are favored due to stronger offense, while Bears have a chance if their defense can contain Minnesota's key players. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Washington Commanders - Dallas Cowboys |
|
|
|
Dallas Cowboys are favored, strong defense crucial. Washington Commanders need offensive consistency. Watch for key player matchups. Weather and home advantage might influence outcomes. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - Detroit Lions |
|
|
-110 (50)
|
Colts' strong defense challenges Lions' passing attack. Key players: Colts' Taylor, Lions' Goff. Watch for turnovers. Weather impact minimal. Both teams have playoff ambitions. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Houston Texans - Tennessee Titans |
|
|
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Injuries and defensive matchups play crucial roles. Consider home advantage, recent form, and key player performance. Turnover battle significantly impacts the outcome. Monitor quarterback play for strategic betting. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - New England Patriots |
|
|
-110 (46)
|
Miami Dolphins bring offensive firepower. Patriots' defense remains strong. Dolphins' speed vs. Patriots' tactics. Watch for turnovers. Key players: Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones. Weather may influence outcomes. Special teams crucial. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | New York Giants - Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
-105 (6)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
The Giants face an uphill battle against a strong Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay's defense and Tom Brady's leadership make them favorites. Giants need a strong offense to compete. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - Denver Broncos |
|
-110 (6)
|
-110 (41)
|
Raiders vs. Broncos: Both teams have strong defenses but inconsistent offenses. Home-field advantage could favor Broncos. Key injuries may impact the outcome. Consider under for total points. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - Seattle Seahawks |
-105
|
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Cardinals face Seahawks. Key players to watch: Kyler Murray for Arizona, D.K. Metcalf for Seattle. Check team performance under high pressure situations. Betting lines favor Seattle. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Green Bay Packers - San Francisco 49ers |
|
-105 (-2)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Consider 49ers' strong defense and Packers' recent form. Key players may impact odds. Weather may influence game dynamics. Home advantage could benefit 49ers. |
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 24th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - Philadelphia Eagles |
|
|
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The Eagles' strong offense faces the Rams' resilient defense. Key players could swing the game. Monitor injuries and weather conditions as they may impact betting odds. |
| Mon Nov 25th 8pm | Los Angeles Chargers - Baltimore Ravens |
130
|
|
|
Chargers' high-powered offense faces Ravens' resilient defense. Expect a high-scoring game with potential turnovers. Key players: Herbert (LAC), Jackson (BAL). Betting focus: point spread, over/under. |
| Thu Nov 28th 12pm | Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears |
|
|
-110 (48.5)
|
Detroit Lions have momentum with a strong offense; Chicago Bears face defensive challenges, making Lions likely favorites. Watch QB performances and turnovers for game impact. |
| Thu Nov 28th 4pm | Dallas Cowboys - New York Giants |
-145
|
-110 (-2.5)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
The Dallas Cowboys' strong offense clashes with the New York Giants' resilient defense. Watch for standout performances from key players and potential game-changing turnovers. Betting leans towards the Cowboys. |
| Thu Nov 28th 8pm | Green Bay Packers - Miami Dolphins |
|
-110 (-3.5)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Packers-Dolphins clash highlights dynamic offenses. Watch for Rodgers’ passing skills against Miami’s defense. Dolphins’ home advantage may be crucial. Close game expected with potential upsets. Key players could decide outcome. |
| Fri Nov 29th 3pm | Kansas City Chiefs - Las Vegas Raiders |
-355
|
|
-110 (44)
|
Kansas City Chiefs are favored. Key players: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce. Raiders need strong defense. Watch for turnovers. Expect high scoring game. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Minnesota Vikings - Arizona Cardinals |
|
-110 (-3.5)
|
-110 (47)
|
Vikings strong offense faces Cardinals’ dynamic defense. Key players: Jefferson for Vikings, Simmons for Cardinals. Weather clear, slight edge to Vikings. Monitor injuries. Bet carefully, unpredictable game. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Atlanta Falcons - Los Angeles Chargers |
|
-110 (1.5)
|
-110 (47)
|
The Falcons' run game faces Chargers' weak rush defense. Betting trends favor the Chargers due to better passing offense. Watch injury reports and weather conditions for a closer view. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Cincinnati Bengals - Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-110 (-1.5)
|
-110 (47.5)
|
Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers face off with dynamic offenses. Bengals' Joe Burrow shows consistency, while Steelers' defense can capitalize on turnovers. A thrilling matchup is expected. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Jacksonville Jaguars - Houston Texans |
|
-105 (6.5)
|
-110 (42.5)
|
Jaguars have a stronger roster, but Texans could surprise at home. Key players to watch: Trevor Lawrence and Dameon Pierce. Weather and turnovers will influence the outcome. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | New England Patriots - Indianapolis Colts |
152
|
100 (2.5)
|
-110 (43)
|
The Patriots' strong defense may challenge the Colts' offense. Monitor injuries and weather conditions. Patriots slight favorites. Consider point spread bets. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | New York Jets - Seattle Seahawks |
|
-110 (-1.5)
|
-110 (44)
|
The Jets face a strong Seahawks defense. Key players return for both teams. Weather could be a factor. Watch betting lines, as matchups favor Seahawks’ home advantage. |
| Sun Dec 1st 1pm | Washington Commanders - Tennessee Titans |
|
-110 (-7)
|
-110 (44.5)
|
Commanders vs Titans: Titans have edge with strong defense; focus on their rushing game. Commanders’ offense inconsistent but can surprise. Key player injuries may impact both teams. |
| Sun Dec 1st 4pm | Carolina Panthers - Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
-110 (6.5)
|
-110 (44)
|
Panthers focusing on ground game to exploit Bucs' weak run defense. Buccaneers rely on Brady's passing against Carolina's vulnerable secondary. Close matchup expected with defensive plays being crucial. |
| Sun Dec 1st 4pm | New Orleans Saints - Los Angeles Rams |
|
100 (2.5)
|
-110 (46.5)
|
The Saints' strong offense might outperform the Rams' defense. Key players to watch include Alvin Kamara for Saints and Aaron Donald for Rams. Consider betting on a high-scoring game. |
| Sun Dec 1st 4pm | Baltimore Ravens - Philadelphia Eagles |
|
-105 (-3)
|
-110 (50.5)
|
The Ravens' defense is solid, but the Eagles' high-scoring offense could pose a challenge. Key players and turnovers may determine the outcome of this closely-matched game. |
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Dec 1st 8pm | Buffalo Bills - San Francisco 49ers |
|
-110 (-3.5)
|
-110 (47)
|
Buffalo Bills' strong defense clashes with San Francisco 49ers' versatile offense. Key players: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs. Watch injury reports closely. Weather may impact game's pace. Bet cautiously. |
| Mon Dec 2nd 7pm | Denver Broncos - Cleveland Browns |
135
|
-110 (-6.5)
|
-110 (40.5)
|
Denver Broncos are underdogs against Cleveland Browns, who have a strong defense. Consider Browns' home advantage but watch Denver's potential for a surprise performance. |
Pleaser bets are apparently not very popular, as evidenced by the fact that only three Vegas sports book families offer pleaser cards, as follows:
- William Hill — 7-point pleaser
- Stratosphere — 7.5-point pleaser
- MGM — 9-point pleaser
I have never heard of an off the board pleaser bet.
Following is my analysis of each one.
7-Point Pleaser
 |
 |
The 7-point pleaser card is available at William Hill sport books and the Aliante only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 8 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 28.65%.
To following table is based on the William Hill pay table. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 39% to 73%.
7-Point William Hill Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 26 | 0.023508 | -0.388796 |
| 4 | 80 | 0.006734 | -0.461266 |
| 5 | 240 | 0.001929 | -0.537016 |
| 6 | 700 | 0.000553 | -0.613166 |
| 7 | 2000 | 0.000158 | -0.683388 |
| 8 | 6000 | 0.000045 | -0.727906 |
To following table is based on the Aliante pay table. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 39% to 73%.
7-Point Aliante Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 23 | 0.023508 | -0.459319 |
| 4 | 70 | 0.006734 | -0.528608 |
| 5 | 210 | 0.001929 | -0.594889 |
| 6 | 600 | 0.000553 | -0.668428 |
| 7 | 1700 | 0.000158 | -0.730880 |
| 8 | 5000 | 0.000045 | -0.773255 |
The smart gambler could cut down these house advantages by playing situations where he gives up less than 7 points and/or stays away from giving up key margins of victory. However, the random-picker house edges are so high to begin with that I wouldn't touch this pleaser card, even utilizing everything in my bag of tricks.
7.5-Point Pleaser
 |
 |
The 7.5-point pleaser card is available at the Stratosphere family of sports books only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), the probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 6 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 27.38%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 64% to 81%.
7.5-Point Stratosphere Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 17.5 | 0.020534 | -0.640647 |
| 4 | 50 | 0.005623 | -0.718844 |
| 5 | 170 | 0.001540 | -0.738230 |
| 6 | 450 | 0.000422 | -0.810251 |
As with the 7-point pleaser, we could chip away at these enormous house advantages via gaining extra half points by carefully comparing the spreads on the card against those on the board. By waiting as long as possible, the bettor can take advantage of line movements. Even with no line movements, if the point spread ended in a half to begin with, then the card maker would have to move the point spreads on each side by 7 and 8 points to keep the pleaser spreads ending in one half. The bettor will improve his odds giving up 7 points only, compared to 7.5. However, it is all a losing battle against house advantages starting at 64%.
9-Point Pleaser
 |
 |
The 9-point pleaser card is available at MGM sports book only. All point spreads end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the win (on a "for one" basis), the probability of winning, and expected return for 3 to 8 picks, assuming a random picker. The probability of each leg winning is 24.17%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 75% to 94%.
9-Point MGM Pleaser Card — Random Picker
| Pick | Pays | Prob. Win | Exp. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 17.5 | 0.014123 | -0.752850 |
| 4 | 55 | 0.003414 | -0.812244 |
| 5 | 180 | 0.000825 | -0.851471 |
| 6 | 500 | 0.000199 | -0.900272 |
| 7 | 1500 | 0.000048 | -0.927682 |
| 8 | 5000 | 0.000012 | -0.941732 |
A 94% house edge? Are you f#*&ing kidding me! Fair odds for a 8-leg MGM pleaser, for a random picker, would be 85,810, and they are playing 5,000 only. Lottery tickets are an outstanding value compared to this.
For a second, I thought this was the worst casino bet I've ever seen. However, that honor still goes to the Harrah's Las Vegas keno room, where the house edge on their "pick-10 stimulus ticket" is 96.63%.
Summary
Let me make this loud and clear. Pleasers are a sucker bet! If you must bet one, the best odds are on the pick-3 pleaser at William Hill sports books, with a 39% house edge. As mentioned before, you can cut down on the house edge by betting as late as possible to give up as few points as possible, compared to the market lines on the board. Even if you could cut down the house edge in half, it would still be an awful bet.
Forget the pleaser cards. Your odds are a lot better with ordinary parlay cards.
Internal Links
- Parlay Bets in the NFL
- Teaser Bets in the NFL
- Betting the NFL
- Las Vegas Sports Book Groups
- Miscellaneous topics in betting the NFL
External Links
- Las Vegas Sports Betting Survey — What each sports book family pays on parlays and teasers.