The purpose of this page is to show the probability of winning and fair line to pay after buying or selling up to seven points off the total in the NFL. These tables assume the probability of winning is 50% with no extra points. They are based on data from the 1994 to 2012 seasons.
The following table shows the probability of winning after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Probability of Winning after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.Expand
Fair Line
Points Purchased
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
33
0.522
0.54
0.557
0.566
0.576
0.587
0.597
0.623
0.65
0.663
0.676
0.684
0.692
0.71
33.5
0.518
0.536
0.545
0.555
0.565
0.575
0.602
0.628
0.641
0.655
0.663
0.671
0.688
0.706
34
0.518
0.528
0.537
0.547
0.558
0.584
0.61
0.623
0.637
0.645
0.653
0.671
0.688
0.711
34.5
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.539
0.566
0.592
0.605
0.619
0.627
0.635
0.652
0.67
0.693
0.715
35
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.555
0.581
0.594
0.607
0.616
0.624
0.641
0.659
0.682
0.704
0.711
35.5
0.51
0.521
0.546
0.57
0.583
0.597
0.605
0.613
0.631
0.648
0.671
0.693
0.7
0.708
36
0.51
0.536
0.561
0.574
0.587
0.595
0.603
0.621
0.639
0.661
0.683
0.691
0.698
0.716
36.5
0.526
0.552
0.565
0.577
0.585
0.593
0.611
0.629
0.651
0.673
0.681
0.688
0.707
0.725
37
0.526
0.539
0.552
0.559
0.567
0.585
0.603
0.625
0.648
0.655
0.662
0.681
0.699
0.717
37.5
0.513
0.526
0.534
0.541
0.559
0.577
0.599
0.622
0.629
0.636
0.655
0.673
0.691
0.708
38
0.513
0.521
0.529
0.545
0.563
0.585
0.608
0.615
0.622
0.641
0.659
0.677
0.694
0.711
38.5
0.508
0.516
0.533
0.549
0.572
0.594
0.601
0.609
0.627
0.646
0.663
0.681
0.698
0.715
39
0.508
0.525
0.542
0.563
0.586
0.593
0.6
0.619
0.637
0.655
0.672
0.689
0.706
0.719
39.5
0.518
0.535
0.557
0.577
0.585
0.592
0.61
0.629
0.646
0.664
0.681
0.698
0.71
0.723
40
0.518
0.54
0.561
0.568
0.575
0.594
0.612
0.629
0.647
0.664
0.681
0.694
0.706
0.725
40.5
0.522
0.544
0.551
0.558
0.576
0.595
0.612
0.63
0.647
0.664
0.677
0.689
0.708
0.726
41
0.522
0.53
0.536
0.554
0.572
0.59
0.607
0.624
0.641
0.654
0.666
0.685
0.703
0.723
41.5
0.507
0.514
0.532
0.549
0.567
0.584
0.601
0.618
0.631
0.643
0.662
0.68
0.701
0.721
42
0.507
0.525
0.543
0.559
0.577
0.594
0.611
0.623
0.636
0.654
0.673
0.693
0.713
0.725
42.5
0.518
0.537
0.553
0.569
0.586
0.603
0.616
0.629
0.647
0.666
0.686
0.706
0.717
0.728
43
0.518
0.536
0.552
0.568
0.585
0.598
0.61
0.629
0.647
0.667
0.688
0.699
0.71
0.724
43.5
0.517
0.535
0.551
0.567
0.579
0.592
0.61
0.629
0.649
0.669
0.68
0.692
0.705
0.719
44
0.517
0.534
0.55
0.562
0.575
0.593
0.612
0.632
0.652
0.663
0.674
0.688
0.702
0.724
44.5
0.517
0.534
0.546
0.557
0.576
0.594
0.615
0.635
0.646
0.657
0.671
0.684
0.706
0.729
45
0.517
0.529
0.541
0.558
0.577
0.597
0.618
0.629
0.64
0.653
0.667
0.689
0.711
0.722
45.5
0.513
0.525
0.542
0.56
0.58
0.6
0.611
0.623
0.636
0.65
0.672
0.694
0.705
0.716
46
0.513
0.531
0.548
0.567
0.587
0.599
0.61
0.623
0.637
0.659
0.681
0.692
0.703
0.714
46.5
0.518
0.536
0.556
0.575
0.586
0.597
0.611
0.624
0.646
0.668
0.68
0.691
0.701
0.712
47
0.518
0.538
0.558
0.568
0.579
0.593
0.606
0.628
0.651
0.662
0.673
0.684
0.694
0.705
47.5
0.52
0.54
0.551
0.561
0.575
0.588
0.61
0.633
0.644
0.655
0.666
0.676
0.687
0.698
48
0.52
0.531
0.542
0.554
0.568
0.59
0.612
0.623
0.635
0.645
0.656
0.667
0.677
48.5
0.511
0.522
0.535
0.548
0.57
0.592
0.603
0.614
0.625
0.636
0.646
0.657
49
0.511
0.524
0.537
0.558
0.58
0.591
0.602
0.613
0.624
0.634
0.645
49.5
0.514
0.527
0.548
0.569
0.58
0.591
0.602
0.612
0.623
0.633
50
0.514
0.535
0.556
0.567
0.578
0.588
0.599
0.61
0.62
50.5
0.522
0.544
0.554
0.565
0.575
0.586
0.597
0.607
51
0.522
0.533
0.544
0.554
0.564
0.575
0.586
51.5
0.511
0.522
0.532
0.542
0.553
0.563
52
0.511
0.522
0.532
0.542
0.552
52.5
0.511
0.521
0.531
0.541
53
0.511
0.521
0.531
53.5
0.511
0.521
54
0.511
The following table shows the fair line after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Fair Line after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line
Points Purchased
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
33
-109
-117
-126
-131
-136
-142
-148
-166
-185
-197
-209
-217
-225
-245
33.5
-108
-115
-120
-125
-130
-136
-151
-169
-179
-190
-196
-204
-221
-240
34
-108
-112
-116
-121
-126
-140
-157
-166
-175
-181
-188
-204
-221
-246
34.5
-104
-108
-113
-117
-130
-145
-153
-162
-168
-174
-188
-203
-225
-251
35
-104
-108
-113
-125
-139
-146
-155
-160
-166
-179
-193
-214
-238
-246
35.5
-104
-109
-120
-133
-140
-148
-153
-158
-171
-184
-204
-226
-234
-242
36
-104
-116
-128
-135
-142
-147
-152
-164
-177
-195
-216
-223
-231
-253
36.5
-111
-123
-130
-136
-141
-146
-157
-169
-187
-206
-213
-221
-241
-264
37
-111
-117
-123
-127
-131
-141
-152
-167
-184
-190
-196
-213
-233
-253
37.5
-105
-111
-115
-118
-127
-136
-150
-164
-170
-175
-190
-206
-223
-243
38
-105
-109
-112
-120
-129
-141
-155
-160
-165
-178
-194
-209
-227
-246
38.5
-103
-107
-114
-122
-134
-146
-151
-156
-168
-182
-197
-213
-231
-250
39
-103
-111
-119
-129
-141
-146
-150
-162
-176
-190
-205
-222
-240
-256
39.5
-107
-115
-125
-137
-141
-145
-157
-169
-183
-197
-213
-231
-245
-261
40
-107
-117
-128
-131
-135
-146
-158
-170
-183
-198
-214
-226
-240
-263
40.5
-109
-119
-123
-126
-136
-147
-158
-170
-183
-198
-209
-222
-242
-265
41
-109
-113
-116
-124
-134
-144
-154
-166
-179
-189
-200
-217
-237
-262
41.5
-103
-106
-114
-122
-131
-140
-151
-162
-171
-180
-196
-213
-234
-258
42
-103
-111
-119
-127
-136
-146
-157
-165
-175
-189
-206
-226
-249
-263
42.5
-108
-116
-124
-132
-142
-152
-160
-169
-183
-199
-218
-240
-254
-268
43
-108
-115
-123
-131
-141
-149
-157
-169
-183
-201
-220
-232
-245
-262
43.5
-107
-115
-123
-131
-138
-145
-157
-169
-185
-202
-213
-224
-239
-256
44
-107
-115
-122
-128
-135
-146
-157
-172
-187
-197
-207
-221
-235
-262
44.5
-107
-114
-120
-126
-136
-146
-159
-174
-183
-192
-204
-217
-241
-268
45
-107
-112
-118
-127
-136
-148
-161
-169
-178
-189
-200
-222
-246
-260
45.5
-105
-110
-119
-127
-138
-150
-157
-165
-175
-185
-205
-227
-239
-252
46
-105
-113
-121
-131
-142
-149
-156
-165
-175
-193
-214
-225
-237
-250
46.5
-108
-116
-125
-135
-141
-148
-157
-166
-183
-202
-212
-223
-235
-247
47
-108
-117
-126
-131
-138
-146
-154
-169
-186
-196
-206
-216
-227
-239
47.5
-108
-117
-123
-128
-135
-143
-157
-172
-181
-190
-199
-209
-219
-231
48
-108
-113
-118
-124
-132
-144
-158
-166
-174
-182
-191
-200
-210
48.5
-105
-109
-115
-121
-132
-145
-152
-159
-167
-174
-183
-191
49
-105
-110
-116
-126
-138
-145
-151
-158
-166
-174
-182
49.5
-106
-111
-121
-132
-138
-144
-151
-158
-165
-173
50
-106
-115
-125
-131
-137
-143
-150
-156
-163
50.5
-109
-119
-124
-130
-136
-142
-148
-155
51
-109
-114
-119
-124
-130
-135
-141
51.5
-105
-109
-114
-118
-124
-129
52
-105
-109
-114
-118
-123
52.5
-104
-109
-113
-118
53
-104
-109
-113
53.5
-104
-109
54
-104
The following table shows the probability of winning after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Probability of Winning after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Over.
Fair Line
Points Purchased
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
33
0.522
33.5
0.522
0.543
34
0.518
0.54
0.56
34.5
0.518
0.536
0.557
0.577
35
0.51
0.528
0.545
0.565
0.587
35.5
0.51
0.52
0.537
0.554
0.576
0.598
36
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.547
0.565
0.587
0.609
36.5
0.51
0.521
0.53
0.539
0.558
0.576
0.598
0.62
37
0.526
0.537
0.546
0.556
0.566
0.584
0.602
0.624
0.646
37.5
0.526
0.552
0.562
0.572
0.582
0.592
0.61
0.628
0.65
0.672
38
0.513
0.539
0.564
0.574
0.584
0.594
0.604
0.622
0.64
0.662
0.684
38.5
0.513
0.526
0.551
0.576
0.586
0.597
0.607
0.617
0.635
0.653
0.675
0.697
39
0.508
0.521
0.534
0.558
0.584
0.595
0.605
0.615
0.625
0.643
0.662
0.683
0.705
39.5
0.508
0.516
0.528
0.541
0.567
0.594
0.604
0.614
0.624
0.634
0.652
0.671
0.692
0.714
40
0.518
0.526
0.533
0.546
0.559
0.585
0.612
0.622
0.632
0.642
0.652
0.671
0.689
0.711
40.5
0.518
0.535
0.543
0.55
0.564
0.577
0.603
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.688
0.707
41
0.522
0.54
0.557
0.564
0.572
0.585
0.599
0.625
0.651
0.662
0.672
0.682
0.692
0.71
41.5
0.522
0.544
0.561
0.578
0.586
0.594
0.607
0.62
0.647
0.673
0.683
0.694
0.704
0.714
42
0.507
0.529
0.551
0.567
0.585
0.593
0.601
0.614
0.627
0.654
0.68
0.691
0.701
0.711
42.5
0.507
0.514
0.536
0.557
0.574
0.592
0.6
0.608
0.621
0.635
0.661
0.687
0.698
0.708
43
0.518
0.526
0.533
0.553
0.576
0.594
0.611
0.619
0.627
0.641
0.654
0.68
0.707
0.717
43.5
0.518
0.537
0.543
0.55
0.573
0.595
0.613
0.631
0.639
0.647
0.66
0.673
0.7
0.726
44
0.517
0.535
0.553
0.56
0.567
0.59
0.612
0.63
0.648
0.656
0.664
0.677
0.69
0.716
44.5
0.517
0.535
0.552
0.569
0.577
0.584
0.606
0.629
0.646
0.664
0.672
0.68
0.694
0.707
45
0.517
0.534
0.551
0.568
0.586
0.594
0.601
0.623
0.646
0.664
0.681
0.689
0.697
0.711
45.5
0.517
0.534
0.55
0.567
0.585
0.603
0.611
0.618
0.64
0.663
0.681
0.698
0.706
0.715
46
0.513
0.529
0.545
0.562
0.579
0.598
0.616
0.623
0.631
0.653
0.675
0.693
0.711
0.719
46.5
0.513
0.525
0.541
0.557
0.574
0.592
0.61
0.629
0.636
0.643
0.666
0.688
0.706
0.724
47
0.518
0.531
0.543
0.559
0.576
0.593
0.611
0.629
0.647
0.655
0.662
0.684
0.707
0.725
47.5
0.518
0.536
0.548
0.56
0.577
0.594
0.612
0.629
0.648
0.666
0.673
0.681
0.703
0.725
48
0.52
0.538
0.556
0.568
0.58
0.597
0.614
0.632
0.649
0.668
0.686
0.693
0.701
0.723
48.5
0.52
0.54
0.558
0.575
0.587
0.6
0.617
0.634
0.652
0.669
0.688
0.706
0.713
0.721
49
0.511
0.531
0.55
0.568
0.586
0.599
0.611
0.628
0.645
0.663
0.68
0.699
0.717
0.724
49.5
0.511
0.522
0.541
0.56
0.579
0.597
0.61
0.622
0.639
0.656
0.674
0.691
0.71
0.728
50
0.514
0.524
0.535
0.554
0.574
0.593
0.611
0.624
0.636
0.653
0.67
0.688
0.705
0.724
50.5
0.514
0.527
0.538
0.548
0.568
0.589
0.607
0.625
0.638
0.651
0.668
0.685
0.702
0.72
51
0.522
0.535
0.548
0.559
0.57
0.59
0.611
0.629
0.647
0.66
0.673
0.69
0.707
0.724
51.5
0.522
0.544
0.557
0.569
0.58
0.592
0.612
0.632
0.651
0.669
0.682
0.694
0.711
0.728
52
0.511
0.533
0.554
0.566
0.58
0.591
0.602
0.623
0.643
0.661
0.68
0.692
0.705
0.722
52.5
0.511
0.522
0.543
0.564
0.577
0.591
0.602
0.613
0.633
0.654
0.672
0.691
0.703
0.716
53
0.511
0.522
0.532
0.553
0.575
0.588
0.602
0.613
0.624
0.645
0.665
0.683
0.702
0.714
53.5
0.511
0.521
0.532
0.542
0.564
0.586
0.6
0.614
0.625
0.636
0.656
0.676
0.695
0.713
54
0.511
0.521
0.531
0.542
0.553
0.575
0.597
0.611
0.624
0.635
0.646
0.667
0.687
0.706
The following table shows the fair line after buying 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Fair Line after Buying 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line
Points Purchased
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
33
-109
33.5
-109
-119
34
-108
-117
-128
34.5
-108
-115
-126
-136
35
-104
-112
-120
-130
-142
35.5
-104
-108
-116
-124
-136
-149
36
-104
-108
-113
-121
-130
-142
-155
36.5
-104
-109
-113
-117
-126
-136
-148
-163
37
-111
-116
-120
-125
-130
-140
-151
-166
-182
37.5
-111
-123
-128
-133
-139
-145
-156
-169
-186
-205
38
-105
-117
-129
-135
-141
-146
-153
-165
-178
-196
-217
38.5
-105
-111
-123
-136
-142
-148
-154
-161
-174
-188
-208
-230
39
-103
-109
-114
-126
-141
-147
-153
-160
-167
-180
-195
-216
-239
39.5
-103
-107
-112
-118
-131
-146
-152
-159
-166
-174
-188
-204
-225
-250
40
-107
-111
-114
-120
-127
-141
-157
-165
-172
-180
-188
-204
-221
-245
40.5
-107
-115
-119
-122
-129
-136
-152
-170
-178
-186
-194
-203
-221
-241
41
-109
-117
-126
-129
-134
-141
-149
-167
-187
-196
-205
-215
-225
-245
41.5
-109
-119
-128
-137
-141
-146
-155
-163
-183
-206
-216
-227
-238
-250
42
-103
-112
-122
-131
-141
-146
-151
-159
-168
-189
-213
-223
-234
-246
42.5
-103
-106
-115
-126
-135
-145
-150
-155
-164
-174
-195
-220
-231
-243
43
-108
-111
-114
-124
-136
-146
-157
-163
-168
-178
-189
-213
-241
-253
43.5
-108
-116
-119
-122
-134
-147
-158
-171
-177
-183
-194
-206
-233
-265
44
-107
-115
-124
-127
-131
-144
-158
-170
-184
-190
-197
-209
-223
-253
44.5
-107
-115
-123
-132
-136
-140
-154
-169
-183
-198
-205
-213
-226
-241
45
-107
-115
-123
-131
-142
-146
-151
-166
-182
-197
-214
-222
-230
-246
45.5
-107
-114
-122
-131
-141
-152
-157
-162
-178
-197
-213
-232
-241
-250
46
-105
-112
-120
-128
-138
-149
-160
-166
-171
-188
-208
-226
-246
-256
46.5
-105
-110
-118
-126
-135
-145
-157
-169
-175
-180
-199
-221
-240
-262
47
-108
-113
-119
-127
-136
-146
-157
-170
-184
-190
-196
-217
-241
-263
47.5
-108
-116
-121
-127
-137
-146
-158
-170
-184
-199
-206
-213
-237
-264
48
-108
-117
-125
-131
-138
-148
-159
-172
-185
-201
-219
-226
-234
-261
48.5
-108
-117
-126
-135
-142
-150
-161
-173
-187
-202
-220
-240
-249
-258
49
-105
-113
-122
-131
-142
-149
-157
-169
-182
-196
-213
-232
-253
-263
49.5
-105
-109
-118
-127
-137
-148
-156
-165
-177
-191
-207
-224
-245
-268
50
-106
-110
-115
-124
-135
-146
-157
-166
-175
-189
-203
-220
-239
-262
50.5
-106
-111
-116
-121
-132
-143
-154
-167
-176
-186
-201
-217
-236
-257
51
-109
-115
-121
-127
-132
-144
-157
-169
-184
-194
-205
-222
-241
-262
51.5
-109
-119
-126
-132
-138
-145
-158
-172
-186
-202
-214
-227
-246
-268
52
-105
-114
-124
-131
-138
-145
-151
-165
-180
-195
-212
-225
-239
-260
52.5
-105
-109
-119
-129
-137
-144
-151
-158
-173
-189
-205
-223
-237
-252
53
-104
-109
-114
-124
-135
-143
-151
-159
-166
-181
-199
-216
-235
-250
53.5
-104
-109
-114
-118
-129
-142
-150
-159
-166
-175
-191
-209
-228
-249
54
-104
-109
-113
-118
-124
-135
-148
-157
-166
-174
-183
-200
-220
-240
The following table shows the probability of winning after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Probability of Winning after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line
Points Sold
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
33
0.478
33.5
0.478
0.457
34
0.482
0.46
0.44
34.5
0.482
0.464
0.443
0.423
35
0.49
0.472
0.455
0.435
0.413
35.5
0.49
0.48
0.463
0.446
0.424
0.402
36
0.49
0.48
0.47
0.453
0.435
0.413
0.391
36.5
0.49
0.479
0.47
0.461
0.442
0.424
0.402
0.38
37
0.474
0.463
0.454
0.444
0.434
0.416
0.398
0.376
0.354
37.5
0.474
0.448
0.438
0.428
0.418
0.408
0.39
0.372
0.35
0.328
38
0.487
0.461
0.436
0.426
0.416
0.406
0.396
0.378
0.36
0.338
0.316
38.5
0.487
0.474
0.449
0.424
0.414
0.403
0.393
0.383
0.365
0.347
0.325
0.303
39
0.492
0.479
0.466
0.442
0.416
0.405
0.395
0.385
0.375
0.357
0.338
0.317
0.295
39.5
0.492
0.484
0.472
0.459
0.433
0.406
0.396
0.386
0.376
0.366
0.348
0.329
0.308
0.286
40
0.482
0.474
0.467
0.454
0.441
0.415
0.388
0.378
0.368
0.358
0.348
0.329
0.311
0.289
40.5
0.482
0.465
0.457
0.45
0.436
0.423
0.397
0.37
0.36
0.35
0.34
0.33
0.312
0.293
41
0.478
0.46
0.443
0.436
0.428
0.415
0.401
0.375
0.349
0.338
0.328
0.318
0.308
0.29
41.5
0.478
0.456
0.439
0.422
0.414
0.406
0.393
0.38
0.353
0.327
0.317
0.306
0.296
0.286
42
0.493
0.471
0.449
0.433
0.415
0.407
0.399
0.386
0.373
0.346
0.32
0.309
0.299
0.289
42.5
0.493
0.486
0.464
0.443
0.426
0.408
0.4
0.392
0.379
0.365
0.339
0.313
0.302
0.292
43
0.482
0.474
0.467
0.447
0.424
0.406
0.389
0.381
0.373
0.359
0.346
0.32
0.293
0.283
43.5
0.482
0.463
0.457
0.45
0.427
0.405
0.387
0.369
0.361
0.353
0.34
0.327
0.3
0.274
44
0.483
0.465
0.447
0.44
0.433
0.41
0.388
0.37
0.352
0.344
0.336
0.323
0.31
0.284
44.5
0.483
0.465
0.448
0.431
0.423
0.416
0.394
0.371
0.354
0.336
0.328
0.32
0.306
0.293
45
0.483
0.466
0.449
0.432
0.414
0.406
0.399
0.377
0.354
0.336
0.319
0.311
0.303
0.289
45.5
0.483
0.466
0.45
0.433
0.415
0.397
0.389
0.382
0.36
0.337
0.319
0.302
0.294
0.285
46
0.487
0.471
0.455
0.438
0.421
0.402
0.384
0.377
0.369
0.347
0.325
0.307
0.289
0.281
46.5
0.487
0.475
0.459
0.443
0.426
0.408
0.39
0.371
0.364
0.357
0.334
0.312
0.294
0.276
47
0.482
0.469
0.457
0.441
0.424
0.407
0.389
0.371
0.353
0.345
0.338
0.316
0.293
0.275
47.5
0.482
0.464
0.452
0.44
0.423
0.406
0.388
0.371
0.352
0.334
0.327
0.319
0.297
0.275
48
0.48
0.462
0.444
0.432
0.42
0.403
0.386
0.368
0.351
0.332
0.314
0.307
0.299
0.277
48.5
0.48
0.46
0.442
0.425
0.413
0.4
0.383
0.366
0.348
0.331
0.312
0.294
0.287
0.279
49
0.489
0.469
0.45
0.432
0.414
0.401
0.389
0.372
0.355
0.337
0.32
0.301
0.283
0.276
49.5
0.489
0.478
0.459
0.44
0.421
0.403
0.39
0.378
0.361
0.344
0.326
0.309
0.29
0.272
50
0.486
0.476
0.465
0.446
0.426
0.407
0.389
0.376
0.364
0.347
0.33
0.312
0.295
0.276
50.5
0.486
0.473
0.462
0.452
0.432
0.411
0.393
0.375
0.362
0.349
0.332
0.315
0.298
0.28
51
0.478
0.465
0.452
0.441
0.43
0.41
0.389
0.371
0.353
0.34
0.327
0.31
0.293
0.276
51.5
0.478
0.456
0.443
0.431
0.42
0.408
0.388
0.368
0.349
0.331
0.318
0.306
0.289
0.272
52
0.489
0.467
0.446
0.434
0.42
0.409
0.398
0.377
0.357
0.339
0.32
0.308
0.295
0.278
52.5
0.489
0.478
0.457
0.436
0.423
0.409
0.398
0.387
0.367
0.346
0.328
0.309
0.297
0.284
53
0.489
0.478
0.468
0.447
0.425
0.412
0.398
0.387
0.376
0.355
0.335
0.317
0.298
0.286
53.5
0.489
0.479
0.468
0.458
0.436
0.414
0.4
0.386
0.375
0.364
0.344
0.324
0.305
0.287
54
0.489
0.479
0.469
0.458
0.447
0.425
0.403
0.389
0.376
0.365
0.354
0.333
0.313
0.294
The following table shows the fair line after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the under. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Fair Line after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
Fair Line
Points Sold
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
33
109
33.5
109
119
34
108
117
128
34.5
108
115
126
136
35
104
112
120
130
142
35.5
104
108
116
124
136
149
36
104
108
113
121
130
142
155
36.5
104
109
113
117
126
136
148
163
37
111
116
120
125
130
140
151
166
182
37.5
111
123
128
133
139
145
156
169
186
205
38
105
117
129
135
141
146
153
165
178
196
217
38.5
105
111
123
136
142
148
154
161
174
188
208
230
39
103
109
114
126
141
147
153
160
167
180
195
216
239
39.5
103
107
112
118
131
146
152
159
166
174
188
204
225
250
40
107
111
114
120
127
141
157
165
172
180
188
204
221
245
40.5
107
115
119
122
129
136
152
170
178
186
194
203
221
241
41
109
117
126
129
134
141
149
167
187
196
205
215
225
245
41.5
109
119
128
137
141
146
155
163
183
206
216
227
238
250
42
103
112
122
131
141
146
151
159
168
189
213
223
234
246
42.5
103
106
115
126
135
145
150
155
164
174
195
220
231
243
43
108
111
114
124
136
146
157
163
168
178
189
213
241
253
43.5
108
116
119
122
134
147
158
171
177
183
194
206
233
265
44
107
115
124
127
131
144
158
170
184
190
197
209
223
253
44.5
107
115
123
132
136
140
154
169
183
198
205
213
226
241
45
107
115
123
131
142
146
151
166
182
197
214
222
230
246
45.5
107
114
122
131
141
152
157
162
178
197
213
232
241
250
46
105
112
120
128
138
149
160
166
171
188
208
226
246
256
46.5
105
110
118
126
135
145
157
169
175
180
199
221
240
262
47
108
113
119
127
136
146
157
170
184
190
196
217
241
263
47.5
108
116
121
127
137
146
158
170
184
199
206
213
237
264
48
108
117
125
131
138
148
159
172
185
201
219
226
234
261
48.5
108
117
126
135
142
150
161
173
187
202
220
240
249
258
49
105
113
122
131
142
149
157
169
182
196
213
232
253
263
49.5
105
109
118
127
137
148
156
165
177
191
207
224
245
268
50
106
110
115
124
135
146
157
166
175
189
203
220
239
262
50.5
106
111
116
121
132
143
154
167
176
186
201
217
236
257
51
109
115
121
127
132
144
157
169
184
194
205
222
241
262
51.5
109
119
126
132
138
145
158
172
186
202
214
227
246
268
52
105
114
124
131
138
145
151
165
180
195
212
225
239
260
52.5
105
109
119
129
137
144
151
158
173
189
205
223
237
252
53
104
109
114
124
135
143
151
159
166
181
199
216
235
250
53.5
104
109
114
118
129
142
150
159
166
175
191
209
228
249
54
104
109
113
118
124
135
148
157
166
174
183
200
220
240
The following table shows the probability of winning after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Probability of Winning after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Over.
Fair Line
Points Sold
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
33
0.478
0.46
0.443
0.434
0.424
0.413
0.403
0.377
0.35
0.337
0.324
0.316
0.308
0.29
33.5
0.482
0.464
0.455
0.445
0.435
0.425
0.398
0.372
0.359
0.345
0.337
0.329
0.312
0.294
34
0.482
0.472
0.463
0.453
0.442
0.416
0.39
0.377
0.363
0.355
0.347
0.329
0.312
0.289
34.5
0.49
0.48
0.47
0.461
0.434
0.408
0.395
0.381
0.373
0.365
0.348
0.33
0.307
0.285
35
0.49
0.48
0.47
0.445
0.419
0.406
0.393
0.384
0.376
0.359
0.341
0.318
0.296
0.289
35.5
0.49
0.479
0.454
0.43
0.417
0.403
0.395
0.387
0.369
0.352
0.329
0.307
0.3
0.292
36
0.49
0.464
0.439
0.426
0.413
0.405
0.397
0.379
0.361
0.339
0.317
0.309
0.302
0.284
36.5
0.474
0.448
0.435
0.423
0.415
0.407
0.389
0.371
0.349
0.327
0.319
0.312
0.293
0.275
37
0.474
0.461
0.448
0.441
0.433
0.415
0.397
0.375
0.352
0.345
0.338
0.319
0.301
0.283
37.5
0.487
0.474
0.466
0.459
0.441
0.423
0.401
0.378
0.371
0.364
0.345
0.327
0.309
0.292
38
0.487
0.479
0.471
0.455
0.437
0.415
0.392
0.385
0.378
0.359
0.341
0.323
0.306
0.289
38.5
0.492
0.484
0.467
0.451
0.428
0.406
0.399
0.391
0.373
0.354
0.337
0.319
0.302
0.285
39
0.492
0.475
0.458
0.437
0.414
0.407
0.4
0.381
0.363
0.345
0.328
0.311
0.294
0.281
39.5
0.482
0.465
0.443
0.423
0.415
0.408
0.39
0.371
0.354
0.336
0.319
0.302
0.29
0.277
40
0.482
0.46
0.439
0.432
0.425
0.406
0.388
0.371
0.353
0.336
0.319
0.306
0.294
0.275
40.5
0.478
0.456
0.449
0.442
0.424
0.405
0.388
0.37
0.353
0.336
0.323
0.311
0.292
0.274
41
0.478
0.47
0.464
0.446
0.428
0.41
0.393
0.376
0.359
0.346
0.334
0.315
0.297
0.277
41.5
0.493
0.486
0.468
0.451
0.433
0.416
0.399
0.382
0.369
0.357
0.338
0.32
0.299
0.279
42
0.493
0.475
0.457
0.441
0.423
0.406
0.389
0.377
0.364
0.346
0.327
0.307
0.287
0.275
42.5
0.482
0.463
0.447
0.431
0.414
0.397
0.384
0.371
0.353
0.334
0.314
0.294
0.283
0.272
43
0.482
0.464
0.448
0.432
0.415
0.402
0.39
0.371
0.353
0.333
0.312
0.301
0.29
0.276
43.5
0.483
0.465
0.449
0.433
0.421
0.408
0.39
0.371
0.351
0.331
0.32
0.308
0.295
0.281
44
0.483
0.466
0.45
0.438
0.425
0.407
0.388
0.368
0.348
0.337
0.326
0.312
0.298
0.276
44.5
0.483
0.466
0.454
0.443
0.424
0.406
0.385
0.365
0.354
0.343
0.329
0.316
0.294
0.271
45
0.483
0.471
0.459
0.442
0.423
0.403
0.382
0.371
0.36
0.347
0.333
0.311
0.289
0.278
45.5
0.487
0.475
0.458
0.44
0.42
0.4
0.389
0.377
0.364
0.35
0.328
0.306
0.295
0.284
46
0.487
0.469
0.452
0.433
0.413
0.401
0.39
0.377
0.363
0.341
0.319
0.308
0.297
0.286
46.5
0.482
0.464
0.444
0.425
0.414
0.403
0.389
0.376
0.354
0.332
0.32
0.309
0.299
0.288
47
0.482
0.462
0.442
0.432
0.421
0.407
0.394
0.372
0.349
0.338
0.327
0.316
0.306
0.295
47.5
0.48
0.46
0.449
0.439
0.425
0.412
0.39
0.367
0.356
0.345
0.334
0.324
0.313
0.302
48
0.48
0.469
0.458
0.446
0.432
0.41
0.388
0.377
0.365
0.355
0.344
0.333
0.323
48.5
0.489
0.478
0.465
0.452
0.43
0.408
0.397
0.386
0.375
0.364
0.354
0.343
49
0.489
0.476
0.463
0.442
0.42
0.409
0.398
0.387
0.376
0.366
0.355
49.5
0.486
0.473
0.452
0.431
0.42
0.409
0.398
0.388
0.377
0.367
50
0.486
0.465
0.444
0.433
0.422
0.412
0.401
0.39
0.38
50.5
0.478
0.456
0.446
0.435
0.425
0.414
0.403
0.393
51
0.478
0.467
0.456
0.446
0.436
0.425
0.414
51.5
0.489
0.478
0.468
0.458
0.447
0.437
52
0.489
0.478
0.468
0.458
0.448
52.5
0.489
0.479
0.469
0.459
53
0.489
0.479
0.469
53.5
0.489
0.479
54
0.489
The following table shows the fair line after selling 0.5 to 7 points off the over. This table assumes the probability of winning is exactly 50% without any extra points.
Fair Line after Selling 0.5 to 7 Points off the Under.
