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Super Bowl 49 - Proposition Bets

Introduction



This page shows some of the many bets available on Super Bowl 49, including my fair price and prices seen on prop sheets around Vegas. Often, the prices on the sheets are the opening price, which can be way off from fair. It won't take long for the sharp bettors to move the line to about where it should be. Nevertheless, there are a lot more square than sharp bettors, and there are always easy to find good bets. This sheet will help identify them.

Except for the bet on the number of letters in the last name of the first touchdown scorer, my fair lines are based on every regular season NFL game since 2000. I also strongly consider the point spread and total on the game. In the case of Super Bowl 49, the point spread varied from pick to the Patriots a one-point favorite. The total ranged from 47.5 to 48.

It should be noted the nature of the game changed over the 15 years in my data. In particular, not just the number of field goals has gone up, but the percentage of scores that are field goals. You'll see a lot bets that look great on a low number of field goals and kicking points. Take these with a grain of salt, because my fair lines factor in the years with fewer field goals.

Before you bet the farm on the no safety, keep in mind there have been four safeties in the last six Super Bowls, including three out of the last three. Personally, I'm still betting it, but do so yourself at your own risk.

Props on Both Teams

  • First Score Touchdown (Win)

    Fair price = -172
    Westgate (no/yes) = +145/-165
    Wynn (no/yes) = +135/-155
    MGM (no/yes) = +130/-160
    CG Technology (no/yes) = +140/-170
    South Point (no/yes) = +145/-165
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = +135/-165
  • Last Score Touchdown (Win)

    Fair price = -201
    Westgate (no/yes) = +170/-190
    Wynn (no/yes) = +160/-180
    South Point (no/yes) = +170/-200
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -190/+170
  • Team to score first wins -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -158
    Westgate (no/yes) = +150/-170
    CG Technology (no/yes) = +140/-170
    Wynn (no/yes) = +140/-170
    South Point (no/yes) = +150/-170
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = +135/-165
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +145/-165
    Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = +135/-165
  • Team to score last wins -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -203
    CG Technology (no/yes) = +170/-200
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +160/-180
  • Three Consecutive Scores -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = -161
    CG Technology (no/yes) = +150/-180
    South Point (no/yes) = +160/-180
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = +150/-180
  • Four Consecutive Scores -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +293
    Westgate (no/yes) = -330/+270
  • Largest lead under 13.5 (Win)

    Fair price = +157
    Westgate (under/over) = +140/-160
    Wynn (under/over) = +120/-140
    CG Technology (un/ov) = +125/-155
    South Point (un/ov) = +130/-150
  • Game tied after 0-0 -- NO (Loss)

    Fair price = -114
    Westgate (no/yes) = -120/+100
    Wynn (no/yes) = -105/-115
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -165/+145
  • Lowest scoring quarter by both teams under 3.5 (Win)

    Fair price = +111
    Westgate (under/over) = -110/-110
    Wynn (under/over) = -110/-110
  • Highest scoring quarter by both teams under 19.5 (Loss)

    Fair price = +102
    Wynn (under/over) = -110/-110
  • Highest scoring quarter by both teams under 20 (Loss)

    Fair price = -118
    Westgate (under/over) = -130/+110
  • Field Goals under 2.5 (Win)

    Fair price = +167
    MGM (under/over) = +165/-185
  • Field Goals under 3.5 (Win)

    Fair price = -137
    CG Technology (under/over) = -140/+110
    Wynn (under/over) = -130/+110
    South Point (un/ov) = -140/+120
    Coast Casinos (un/ov) = -130/EV
    Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -150/+130
    Boyd/Coast (un/ov) = -130/EV
  • Punts under 8 (Loss)

    Fair price = +124
    MGM (under/over) = -130/+100
  • Punts under 8.5 (Loss)

    Fair price = -111
    Westgate (under/over) = -140/+120
    Wynn (under/over) = -120/+100
    South Point (un/ov) = -135/+115
    Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -140/+120
  • Combined field goals and touchdowns under 8.5 (Win)

    Fair price = +108
    MGM (under/over) = -150/+120
  • Safety -- NO (Win)

    Fair price = -1508
    Westgate (no/yes) = -700/+500
    CG Technology (no/yes) = -875/+575
    MGM (no/yes) = -850/+550
    Wynn (no/yes) = -550/+500
    South Point (no/yes) = -725/+525
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -800/+500
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -700/+500
    William Hill (no/yes) = -600/+450
    Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -800/+500
  • Overtime -- NO (Win)

    Fair price = -1385
    CG Technology(no/yes) = -1100/+700
    MGM (no/yes) = -800/+450
    Wynn (no/yes) = -800/+500
    South Point (no/yes) = -750/+500
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -800/+500
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -800/+550
    William Hill (no/yes) = -800/+450
    Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -800/+500
  • Two-point Conversion -- NO (Win)

    Fair price = -584
    Westgate (no/yes) = -450/+375
    CG Technology(no/yes) = -400/+300
    Wynn (no/yes) = -450/+350
    South Point (no/yes) = -380/+280
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -280/+270
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -400/+330
    William Hill (no/yes) = -320/+260
    Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -380/+270
  • Three-point margin of victory -- NO (Win)

    Fair price = -532
    Westgate (no/yes) = -400/+330
    Wynn (no/yes) = -450/+350
    South Point (no/yes) = -400/+330
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -400/+330
    William Hill (no/yes) = -320/+260
  • Scoreless Quarter -- NO (Loss)

    Fair price = -362
    Westgate (no/yes) = -290/+245
    CG Technology(no/yes) = -300/+240
    Wynn (no/yes) = -330/+270
    South Point (no/yes) = -290/+245
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -320/+230
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -320/+260
  • Total Touchdowns under 5.5 (Loss)

    Fair price = -116
    Westgate (under/over) = -120/+100
    MGM (under/over) = -110/?
    Wynn (under/over) = -120/+100
    South Point (under/over) = -115/-105
    Coast Casinos (un/ov) = -115/-115
    Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -130/+110
    Boyd/Coast (un/ov) = -115/-115
  • Last Score of First Half is a Field Goal (Loss)

    Fair price = -102
    South Point (no/yes) = -120/+100
  • Lead change in first half -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +140
    CG Technology(no/yes) = -155/+125
    South Point (no/yes) = -130/+110
    Coast Casinos(no/yes) = -160/+130
  • Lead change in second half -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = +151
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -170/+150
  • Field Goal in Quarter 1 -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = +102
    Westgate (no/yes) = -120/+100
    CG Technology(no/yes) = -110/-120
    Wynn (no/yes) = +100/-120
    South Point (no/yes) = -110/-110
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -120/EV
  • Field Goal in Quarter 2 -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -258
    Westgate (no/yes) = +240/-280
  • Field Goal in Quarter 3 -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +107
    Westgate (no/yes) = -110/-110
    South Point (no/yes) = -110/-110
  • Field Goal in Quarter 4 -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -146
    Westgate (no/yes) = +155/-175
  • First downs of both teams under 39.5 (Loss)

    Fair price = -111
    South Point (un/ov) = -110/-110
  • Final score odd -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = -124
    Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -125/+105
  • Will any quarter be tied? -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -134
    Golden Nugget (un/ov) = -130/+110

Props on the Highest Scoring Quarter

  • First quarter highest scoring (tie loses) -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +782
    Wynn = +450
  • Second quarter highest scoring (tie loses) -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = +221
    Wynn = +180
  • Third quarter highest scoring (tie loses) -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +650
    Wynn = +350
  • Fourth quarter highest scoring (tie loses) -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +227
    Wynn = +180
  • Tie for quarter highest scoring -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +637
    Wynn = +220
  • First quarter highest scoring (tie pushes) -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +662
    Westgate = +450
  • Second quarter highest scoring (tie pushes) -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = +177
    Westgate = +150
  • Third quarter highest scoring (tie pushes) -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +548
    Westgate = +350
  • Fourth quarter highest scoring (tie pushes) -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +183
    Westgate = +200
  • Letters in last name of first touchdown scorer under 6.5 (Win)

    Fair price = -227
    Golden Nugget (under/over) = +125/-145

Props on the Seahawks

  • Seahawks score in all four quarters -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +276
    Westgate (no/yes) = -300/+250
    MGM (no/yes) = -320/+250
    CG Technology (no/yes) = -320/+250
    Wynn (no/yes) = -300/+250
    South Point (no/yes) = -280/+240
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -350/+250
  • Kicking points by Steven Hauschka (Sea) under 7.5 (Win)

    Fair price = -118
    Westgate (under/over) = +105/-125
    CG Technology (under/over) = -115/-115
    Golden Nugget (under/over) = +105/-125
  • Field Goals by Hauschka (Sea) under 1.5 (Win)

    Fair price = -104
    Westgate (under/over) = +115/-135
  • First downs by Seahawks under 19 (Loss)

    Fair price = +151
    South Point (under/over) = -110/-110
    Golden Nugget (under/over) = -110/-110
  • First downs by Seahawks under 19.5 (Loss)

    Fair price = +120
    Wynn (under/over) = -120/+100
  • Seahawks score Touchdown in Quarter 1 -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +119
    CG Technology (no/yes) = -140/+110
    Wynn (no/yes) = -155/+135
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -150/+130
  • Seahawks score Touchdown in Quarter 2 -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -147
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +140/-160
  • Seahawks score Touchdown in Quarter 3 -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = +109
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -110/-110
  • Seahawks score Touchdown in Quarter 4 -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = -136
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +130/-150
  • Seahawks under 3.5 points in first quarter -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -110
  • Seahawks first score a touchdown -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -166
    South Point (no/yes) = +115/-135
  • Seahawks last score a touchdown -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -166
    South Point (no/yes) = +160/-190
  • Seahawks final score an even number -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = +103
    Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -140/+110


Props on the Patriots

  • Patriots score all four quarters -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +247
    Westgate (no/yes) = -280/+240
    South Point (no/yes) = -300/+250
    Coast Casinos (no/yes) = -350/+250
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -250/+210
  • Kicking points by Stephen Gostkowski (Pat) under 7.5 (Win)

    Fair price = -108
  • Patriots score Touchdown in Quarter 1 -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +108
    Westgate (no/yes) = -150/+130
    CG Technology (no/yes) = -130/+100
    Wynn (no/yes) = -140/+120
    South Point (no/yes) = -150/+130
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -145/+125
  • Patriots score Touchdown in Quarter 2 -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -161
    Westgate (no/yes) = +145/-165
    South Point (no/yes) = +145/-165
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +150/-170
  • Patriots score Touchdown in Quarter 3 -- YES (Loss)

    Fair price = +100
    Westgate (no/yes) = -110/-110
    South Point (no/yes) = -110/-110
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = -110/-110
  • Patriots score Touchdown in Quarter 4 -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -144
    Westgate (no/yes) = +135/-155
    South Point (no/yes) = +135/-155
    Golden Nugget (no/yes) = +130/-150
  • First downs by Patriots under 20.5 (Loss)

    Fair price = -102
    Westgate (under/over) = -110/-110
    Wynn (under/over) = -125/+105
    South Point (under/over) = -110/-110
    Coast Casinos (un/ov) = -115/-115
  • Patriots under 3.5 points in first quarter -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -101
  • Patriots first score a touchdown -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -175
    South Point (no/yes) = +115/-135
  • Patriots last score a touchdown -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = -169
    South Point (no/yes) = +160/-190
  • Patriots final score an even number -- YES (Win)

    Fair price = +103
    Boyd/Coast (no/yes) = -140/+110


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Written by: Michael Shackleford