Betting the NHL

Introduction

The goal of this page is to help the recreational hockey better. I carefully look at the value of the major ways to bet -- the money line, over/under, and puck line, to determine the best value. Then I list some miscellaneous hockey statistics for your entertainment.

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Data and Methodology

The following data is from every game played in the four NHL seasons starting with the 2017/18 season. The total number of games played in these four seasons is 4,875. It is worth noting that the 2020/2021 season was shortened to 1,904 games due to the Covid pandemic.

The data was purchased from Big Ball Data one season at a time. The first three seasons had very tight lines that I presume came from Pinnacle Sports. The fourth season had more normal 20-cent lines. In evaluating the expected returns below, I calculated overall returns for all the data and then used the appropriate weighting factors to get the returns to equal the 4.54% expected with a 20-cent line, which the vast majority of sports books offer for hockey.

The next three sections show my analysis of the three major ways of betting hockey -- the money line, over/under, and puck line.

Compare Online NHL Odds

NHL

Ice Hockey : HockeyAllsvenskan

Today

Upcoming matches	Money Line	Spread	Total	Featured Insight
Mon Jan 20th 1pm Djurgårdens IF Nybro Vikings IF	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -325	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -115 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 100 (5.5)	Djurgårdens IF's experience in the league may give them an edge, but Nybro Vikings IF has momentum. Expect a close match with potential for an upset.
Mon Jan 20th 1pm BIK Karlskoga Kalmar HC	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -240 ⇗20.00	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 135 (-1.5) ⇗25.00	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -125 (4.5) ⇘230.00	BIK Karlskoga is strong at home, and Kalmar HC struggles with away games. Watch for player injuries and recent performance trends. Betting on Karlskoga might be favorable.

This Week

Upcoming matches	Money Line	Spread	Total	Featured Insight
Wed Jan 22nd 1pm Västerås IK IF Björklöven	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 175	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -150 (1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -110 (6)	Analyze team form and head-to-head history. Consider betting the over on total goals, given recent high-scoring games. Check starting goalies and injury updates for both teams.
Wed Jan 22nd 1pm Vimmerby HC Södertälje SK	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 210	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -120 (1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -105 (5.5)	Vimmerby HC vs. Södertälje SK: Evaluate recent team performance and player stats. Consider home ice advantage for Vimmerby. Södertälje SK's consistent offense could be a decisive factor.
Wed Jan 22nd 1pm Tingsryds AIF Östersunds IK	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -155	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 180 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -110 (5)	Tingsryds AIF strong at home, but Östersunds IK's recent form impressive. Key players missing for Tingsryds could sway outcome. Balanced betting advised with focus on under 5.5 goals.

Ice Hockey : NHL

Today

Upcoming matches	Money Line	Spread	Total	Featured Insight
Mon Jan 20th 1pm Boston Bruins San Jose Sharks	-180 ⇗40.00	145 (-1.5) ⇗23.00	150 (5.5) ⇗270.00	The Boston Bruins boast strong defense, making them favorites. The San Jose Sharks have struggled offensively. Expect a defensive game with low scoring chances.
Mon Jan 20th 3pm Colorado Avalanche Minnesota Wild	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -220 ⇗5.00	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetMGM Casino NJ 3.1 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10.   Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. MI, NJ, PA or WV only. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable site credit, unless otherwise provided in the applicable Terms. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling Problem? 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV). 120 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -103 (6) ⇗5.00	Colorado Avalanche has strong offensive skills. Watch for Minnesota Wild's goaltending. Key players may impact game outcome. Home advantage could play a role. Tight match expected.
Mon Jan 20th 4pm Seattle Kraken Buffalo Sabres	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -114	Sign Up Bonus 125% up to $2500 Players rated BetUS 3 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry. 212 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -114 (5.5) ⇘2.00	Seattle Kraken faces Buffalo Sabres. Kraken shows strong defensive play, Sabres rely on high-scoring offense. Key players: Kraken's Grubauer, Sabres' Thompson. Expect tight match with possible overtime.
Mon Jan 20th 6pm Vegas Golden Knights St Louis Blues	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -183 ⇗12.00	135 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. 108 (6)	Golden Knights are strong at home. Watch for players' health. Blues have a resilient defense. Key players might decide the outcome. Analyze recent performances for better insights.

This Week

Upcoming matches	Money Line	Spread	Total	Featured Insight
Mon Jan 20th 7pm Toronto Maple Leafs Tampa Bay Lightning	-130	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetMGM Casino NJ 3.1 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit: $10.   Plus, get a $25 Casino Bonus on the house. The casino Bonus received from this Promotion is subject to a wagering requirement. Wagering requirement contributions are based on the specific casino game being wagered on. Please see the Wagering Requirements section for more details. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. MI, NJ, PA or WV only. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable site credit, unless otherwise provided in the applicable Terms. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling Problem? 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV). 190 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -103 (6.5) ⇘205.00	Toronto Maple Leafs are strong at home. Tampa Bay Lightning's away form is inconsistent. Consider the Maple Leafs for a win, but expect a high-scoring game.
Mon Jan 20th 7pm New York Islanders Columbus Blue Jackets	Sign Up Bonus 50% up to $1000 Players rated MyBookie 3.5 out of 5 Stars Claim New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50. -179 ⇘3.00	Sign Up Bonus 125% up to $2500 Players rated BetUS 3 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry. 152 (-1.5) ⇗12.00	-120 (5.5)	New York Islanders boast a strong home record. Columbus Blue Jackets struggle on the road. Expect a low-scoring game, with the Islanders favored to win.
Mon Jan 20th 8pm Chicago Blackhawks Carolina Hurricanes	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. 257 ⇘1.00	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. 100 (1.5)	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. 104 (6)	Carolina holds the upper hand with a stronger roster and recent form. Chicago struggles defensively. Expect a high-tempo game. Over goals and Carolina win are likely.
Mon Jan 20th 9pm Utah Hockey Club Winnipeg Jets	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. 153 ⇗9.00	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -167 (1.5) ⇗11.00	-120 (5.5)	Utah faces Winnipeg with a strong defense but struggles offensively. Winnipeg's balanced attack poses a challenge. Previous matchups favor Jets. Betting insights lean towards a Jets victory.
Mon Jan 20th 10pm Los Angeles Kings Pittsburgh Penguins	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -178 ⇗3.00	Sign Up Bonus 125% up to $2500 Players rated BetUS 3 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $100. Plus 25% Casino Bonus – up to $625. 7 Days Expiry. 140 (-1.5) ⇗5.00	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -113 (5.5)	Los Angeles Kings strong at home, improving in recent games. Pittsburgh Penguins inconsistent on the road but have key players performing well. Expect a close match.
Tue Jan 21st 7pm Philadelphia Flyers Detroit Red Wings	-135 ⇘5.00		Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -106 (6) ⇗2.00	Strong defense and home advantage make Detroit Red Wings favorites. Philadelphia Flyers' inconsistent play hinders their chances. Expect a tight game with potential for an upset.
Tue Jan 21st 7pm Montréal Canadiens Tampa Bay Lightning	Sign Up Bonus 50% up to $1000 Players rated MyBookie 3.5 out of 5 Stars Claim New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50. 113 ⇗6.00			Tampa Bay Lightning have the edge with strong offensive play. Montréal Canadiens need solid defense to counter. Watch for power plays and key player performances affecting the outcome.
Tue Jan 21st 7pm New York Rangers Ottawa Senators	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -128 ⇗7.00	175 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -125 (5.5)	The New York Rangers have a strong offensive lineup, but the Ottawa Senators' recent form and home advantage may pose a challenge. Expect a close and competitive match.
Tue Jan 21st 8pm Dallas Stars Carolina Hurricanes	Sign Up Bonus 50% up to $1000 Players rated MyBookie 3.5 out of 5 Stars Claim New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50. -144 ⇘1.00			Dallas Stars' strong home record clashes with Carolina Hurricanes' solid defense. Key players could decide this closely contested NHL matchup. Expect a competitive game with potential for overtime.
Tue Jan 21st 8pm Nashville Predators San Jose Sharks	Sign Up Bonus 50% up to $1000 Players rated MyBookie 3.5 out of 5 Stars Claim New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50. -330 ⇘11.00			Nashville Predators' strong defense faces San Jose Sharks' improving offense. Predators hold edge in recent matchups. Betting on goals under recommended due to both teams' defensive strategies.
Tue Jan 21st 9pm Edmonton Oilers Washington Capitals	Sign Up Bonus 50% up to $1000 Players rated MyBookie 3.5 out of 5 Stars Claim New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50. -164 ⇗10.00			Edmonton boasts strong offense with McDavid and Draisaitl. Capitals rely on Ovechkin. Watch for power plays. Edmonton slight favorite. Consider over goals for a betting edge.
Tue Jan 21st 10pm Vancouver Canucks Buffalo Sabres	Sign Up Bonus 50% up to $1000 Players rated MyBookie 3.5 out of 5 Stars Claim New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+.  Minimum deposit: $50. -187 ⇗1.00			Vancouver Canucks face Buffalo Sabres. Analyze team form, player injuries, and head-to-head history. Consider Canucks' offensive edge but beware of Sabres' home advantage. Betting odds may offer value.
Tue Jan 21st 10pm Anaheim Ducks Florida Panthers	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. 206	-125 (1.5)	Sign Up Bonus 100% up to $1000 Players rated BetOnline Sportsbook 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. For the first cryptocurrency deposit. Allowed: USA and Canada. Minimum deposit $20. -122 (5.5)	Anaheim Ducks struggle with consistency; Florida Panthers have strong defense. Consider betting on Panthers’ home advantage. Watch injury reports closely for impactful player absences.

Ice Hockey : NHL Championship Winner

Later

Thu Jun 19th 8pm	Competitor/Team	Quote
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Ice Hockey : SHL

This Week

Upcoming matches	Money Line	Spread	Total	Featured Insight
Thu Jan 23rd 1pm Rögle BK Skellefteå AIK	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -115	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 240 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -140 (5)	Rögle BK vs. Skellefteå AIK: Expect a close match. Key players and recent form suggest tight scoring. Monitor team lineups and injuries for late betting advantages.
Thu Jan 23rd 1pm Malmö Redhawks Örebro HK	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -130	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 210 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -115 (5)	Malmö Redhawks show strong defense but struggle offensively. Örebro HK's consistent form gives them an edge. Watch for power play strategies and goaltender performance to influence the outcome.
Thu Jan 23rd 1pm Modo Hockey Luleå HF	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 100	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -285 (1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 115 (5.5)	Modo Hockey faces Luleå HF in the NHL. Modo's home advantage could be crucial. Luleå's recent form suggests a close match. Key players will influence the outcome.
Thu Jan 23rd 1pm Växjö Lakers Leksands IF	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -170	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 160 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -130 (5)	Växjö Lakers are strong at home, while Leksands IF has struggled in away games. Key players could impact outcomes. Consider recent form and head-to-head stats before placing bets.
Thu Jan 23rd 1pm Linköping HC Färjestad BK	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 125	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -210 (1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -115 (5.5)	Expect a tightly contested match between Linköping HC and Färjestad BK. Home advantage might favor Linköping, but Färjestad's form suggests a close game. Consider betting on a narrow margin.
Thu Jan 23rd 1pm Timrå IK Frölunda HC	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -140	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 195 (-1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -140 (5)	Timrå IK has been strong at home, but Frölunda HC's offense is powerful. Expect a close game. Consider both teams to score and a potential overtime.
Thu Jan 23rd 1pm HV71 Brynäs IF	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 125	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. -225 (1.5)	Sign Up Bonus - Cryptocurrency 75% up to $750 Players rated Bovada 2.9 out of 5 Stars Claim New Customer Offer. T&C's apply. 18+. Only for cryptocurrency deposits. 110 (5.5)	HV71 has a strong home record, while Brynäs IF struggles on the road. Consider HV71's home advantage and Brynäs' defensive weaknesses when placing bets on this matchup.

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Money Line

Money Line bets are simple bets on who will win. The following table shows the expected return flat betting all underdogs, favorites, and picks (both teams have 50/50 chance of winning). As expected, based on studying other sports, the underdogs offer a better value, with a house edge 2.73% less than better on favorites.

Of the 4,875 games in the last four seasons studied, the home team won 2,627 (53.9%) and the road team was 2,248 (46.1%). The next table breaks down how money line bets went both ways.

Over/Under

The next table looks at bets against the total. Not surprisingly, bets on the under did bet, with a house edge 1.67% than bets on the cover. This does not come as a surprise, because bets on the under do significantly better than the over in every sport I have studied.

Puck Line

The Puck Line is like the Run Line in baseball. It is a point spread that is always 1.5. The favorite always gives up 1.5 goals and the underdog gets them. The following table shows that the house edge betting on the underdog is 1.61% lower than betting the favorite.

I should mention I spent a lot of time studying puck line bets, looking to see if there was any value assuming the money line bets were fair. To make a long story short, I find the sports books do a good job in setting the puck lines properly.

Fun Facts

The following table shows the average goals scored by period and overtime for both regular season games and the playoffs.

The reason I think they should be considered separately is there is an incentive to go to overtime in regular season games. To be specific, if a game is decided after three periods, then two points are awarded to the winner and zero to the loser. However, if the game is decided in overtime, two points are awarded to the winner and one to the loser. Overtime is always sudden death (team to score first wins). The data shows the probability of overtime in a regular season game is 22.57% and drops to 20.89% in the playoffs.

The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for a single team.

The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for both teams combined.

The following shows the number of goals scored by the home team across the road team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.

The following shows the number of goals scored by the winning team across the losing team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.

The following table shows the number the count for each margin of victory and the probability for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.

The following table shows various statistics per game for road and home teams as well as the total between the two.

The following table shows various statistics per game for regular season and play offs games as well as the total between the two.

Notes:
*: A point is different from a goal. Points may be awarded to players assisting in a goal. The ratio of points to goals in the NHL for the four seasons starting in 2017 is 2.64.

The following table shows the ratio of goals to shots on goals cut various ways.

Written by: Michael Shackleford