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Betting the NHL
On this page
Introduction
The goal of this page is to help the recreational hockey better. I carefully look at the value of the major ways to bet -- the money line, over/under, and puck line, to determine the best value. Then I list some miscellaneous hockey statistics for your entertainment.
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Data and Methodology
The following data is from every game played in the four NHL seasons starting with the 2017/18 season. The total number of games played in these four seasons is 4,875. It is worth noting that the 2020/2021 season was shortened to 1,904 games due to the Covid pandemic.
The data was purchased from Big Ball Data one season at a time. The first three seasons had very tight lines that I presume came from Pinnacle Sports. The fourth season had more normal 20-cent lines. In evaluating the expected returns below, I calculated overall returns for all the data and then used the appropriate weighting factors to get the returns to equal the 4.54% expected with a 20-cent line, which the vast majority of sports books offer for hockey.
The next three sections show my analysis of the three major ways of betting hockey -- the money line, over/under, and puck line.
Compare Online NHL Odds
Ice Hockey : HockeyAllsvenskan
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
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Fri Dec 27th 12pm
Nybro Vikings IF Kalmar HC |
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Nybro Vikings IF have a strong home record, while Kalmar HC struggles away. Expect a close game with possible Nybro advantage. Consider total goals under betting option. |
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Fri Dec 27th 1pm
Tingsryds AIF Vimmerby HC |
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Tingsryds AIF strong at home; Vimmerby HC unpredictable on away games. Check recent form and head-to-head. Watch key player performances. Bet cautiously considering both teams’ current standings. |
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Fri Dec 27th 1pm
IF Björklöven IK Oskarshamn |
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Björklöven's strong home record faces IK Oskarshamn's resilient away form. Key players on both sides are crucial. Expect a competitive match. Goalkeeping might be decisive. Watch for late-game shifts. |
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Fri Dec 27th 1pm
Djurgårdens IF BIK Karlskoga |
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Djurgårdens IF shows strong form, favored at home. BIK Karlskoga is resilient but struggles away. Consider home advantage and recent performance stats for better decision-making. |
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Fri Dec 27th 1pm
Almtuna IS Östersunds IK |
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Almtuna IS is strong at home, while Östersunds IK struggles with away games. Expect dynamic play, with Almtuna having a slight edge. Consider betting on a close match. |
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Fri Dec 27th 1pm
Mora IK AIK |
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Mora IK has shown strong home performance, while AIK struggles on the road. Expect a close game, with both teams relying on defenses. Key players could decide the outcome. |
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Fri Dec 27th 2pm
Västerås IK Södertälje SK |
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Västerås IK has a strong home record, but Södertälje SK's solid defense makes for a tight game. Expect a low-scoring match with potential overtime. |
Ice Hockey : NHL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sat Dec 21st 1pm
Nashville Predators Los Angeles Kings |
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Consider Predators' strong defense but Kings have a better historical home record. Focus on current goalie forms and special team performance for a balanced betting approach. |
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Sat Dec 21st 4pm
Edmonton Oilers San Jose Sharks |
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-105 (6.5)
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The Oilers show strong form with McDavid leading. Sharks struggle defensively. Consider betting on Edmonton's win, but watch for underdog surprises. |
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Sat Dec 21st 4pm
Calgary Flames Chicago Blackhawks |
⇗5.00 |
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Calgary Flames have a strong home record. Chicago Blackhawks struggle defensively. Flames' top forwards could exploit this, favoring a high-scoring game. Check for injuries and lineup updates. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sat Dec 21st 7pm
Toronto Maple Leafs New York Islanders |
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158 (-1.5)
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Toronto has home advantage, strong offense lately. Islanders rely on solid defense and goaltending. Expect a tight game, possibly low-scoring, with special teams playing a crucial role. |
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Sat Dec 21st 7pm
New Jersey Devils Pittsburgh Penguins |
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The New Jersey Devils face the Pittsburgh Penguins. Watch for offensive strategies. Key players may influence outcomes. Consider recent performance and injuries when betting. |
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Sat Dec 21st 7pm
Winnipeg Jets Minnesota Wild |
⇗3.00 |
⇗5.00 |
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Jets' strong defense meets Wild's dynamic offense. Home advantage favors Wild, but Jets' goalkeeper might be the key. Expect a tight match with strategic plays. |
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Sat Dec 21st 7pm
Montréal Canadiens Detroit Red Wings |
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Watch for Canadiens' defensive strategies against Red Wings' strong offense. Goalie performance could be pivotal. Consider live betting based on game flow. |
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Sat Dec 21st 7pm
Philadelphia Flyers Columbus Blue Jackets |
⇗5.00 |
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105 (6.5)
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Philadelphia's aggressive defense contrasts with Columbus's speed. Flyers aim for a comeback, while Blue Jackets capitalize on transitions. |
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Sat Dec 21st 7pm
Boston Bruins Buffalo Sabres |
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Boston Bruins have strong defense and home advantage. Buffalo Sabres show offensive potential. Betting focus: Bruins' defensive tactics. Consider over on Sabres’ goals if defense falters. |
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Sat Dec 21st 10pm
Vegas Golden Knights Seattle Kraken |
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135 (-1.5)
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Golden Knights strong at home; watch for high-scoring game against Kraken. Goalie performance key. Both teams have offensive strengths. Betting on total goals may offer value. |
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Sat Dec 21st 10pm
Vancouver Canucks Ottawa Senators |
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205 (-1.5)
⇗9.00 |
⇗5.00 |
The Canucks aim to capitalize on home advantage. Watch out for Pettersson's plays. Senators rely on Tkachuk's leadership. Goalies' performance might be a game-changer. High-scoring match likely. |
Ice Hockey : NHL Championship Winner
| Thu Jun 19th 8pm | Competitor/Team | Quote |
|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers |
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| Carolina Hurricanes |
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| Florida Panthers |
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| Dallas Stars |
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| New Jersey Devils |
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| Toronto Maple Leafs |
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| Colorado Avalanche |
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| Winnipeg Jets |
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| Vegas Golden Knights |
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| New York Rangers |
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| Tampa Bay Lightning |
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| Minnesota Wild |
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| Washington Capitals |
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| Vancouver Canucks |
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| Los Angeles Kings |
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| Boston Bruins |
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| Nashville Predators |
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| Ottawa Senators |
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| New York Islanders |
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| Utah Hockey Club |
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| Buffalo Sabres |
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| Seattle Kraken |
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| Detroit Red Wings |
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| St Louis Blues |
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| Calgary Flames |
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| Pittsburgh Penguins |
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| Philadelphia Flyers |
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| Montréal Canadiens |
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| Chicago Blackhawks |
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| Columbus Blue Jackets |
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| Anaheim Ducks |
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| San Jose Sharks |
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Ice Hockey : SHL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thu Dec 26th 9am
Malmö Redhawks Växjö Lakers |
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Malmö Redhawks vs. Växjö Lakers: Expect intense competition, balanced gameplay, and potential overtime. Key players will impact outcome. Watch out for strategic plays and defensive tactics. |
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Thu Dec 26th 9am
Leksands IF Timrå IK |
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Leksands IF has a strong home record, but watch for Timrå IK's improved defense. Consider betting on under total goals due to both teams' solid goaltending. |
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Thu Dec 26th 9am
HV71 Luleå HF |
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HV71 and Luleå HF show strong defensive tactics. Watch out for power play opportunities. Consider betting on under due to likely low scoring. Goalie performance could be a deciding factor. |
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Thu Dec 26th 9am
Frölunda HC Linköping HC |
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Frölunda HC has a strong home record, while Linköping HC struggles away. Consider betting on a Frölunda win. Watch for Frölunda's offensive strategies and Linköping's defensive weaknesses. |
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Thu Dec 26th 12pm
Örebro HK Skellefteå AIK |
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Örebro HK has a strong home record, while Skellefteå AIK shows solid away performance. Both teams have potent offenses. Expect a close match, possibly decided by special teams. |
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Thu Dec 26th 12pm
Brynäs IF Modo Hockey |
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Brynäs IF faces Modo Hockey in a competitive NHL matchup. Key players and recent form will likely influence the outcome. Consider team dynamics and home advantage for betting. |
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Thu Dec 26th 12pm
Färjestad BK Rögle BK |
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Consider Färjestad BK's strong home performance and Rögle BK's recent away struggles. Both teams have key players but focus on Färjestad's consistent scoring advantage. |
Money Line
Money Line bets are simple bets on who will win. The following table shows the expected return flat betting all underdogs, favorites, and picks (both teams have 50/50 chance of winning). As expected, based on studying other sports, the underdogs offer a better value, with a house edge 2.73% less than better on favorites.
Money Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 96.82% | 3.18% |
| Favorite | 94.09% | 5.91% |
| Pick | 95.45% | 4.55% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Of the 4,875 games in the last four seasons studied, the home team won 2,627 (53.9%) and the road team was 2,248 (46.1%). The next table breaks down how money line bets went both ways.
Money Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Road | 94.82% | 5.18% |
| Home | 96.09% | 3.91% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Over/Under
The next table looks at bets against the total. Not surprisingly, bets on the under did bet, with a house edge 1.67% than bets on the cover. This does not come as a surprise, because bets on the under do significantly better than the over in every sport I have studied.
Over/Under Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 94.62% | 5.38% |
| Under | 96.29% | 3.71% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Puck Line
The Puck Line is like the Run Line in baseball. It is a point spread that is always 1.5. The favorite always gives up 1.5 goals and the underdog gets them. The following table shows that the house edge betting on the underdog is 1.61% lower than betting the favorite.
Puck Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog +1.5 | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Favorite -1.5 | 94.65% | 5.35% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
I should mention I spent a lot of time studying puck line bets, looking to see if there was any value assuming the money line bets were fair. To make a long story short, I find the sports books do a good job in setting the puck lines properly.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average goals scored by period and overtime for both regular season games and the playoffs.
The reason I think they should be considered separately is there is an incentive to go to overtime in regular season games. To be specific, if a game is decided after three periods, then two points are awarded to the winner and zero to the loser. However, if the game is decided in overtime, two points are awarded to the winner and one to the loser. Overtime is always sudden death (team to score first wins). The data shows the probability of overtime in a regular season game is 22.57% and drops to 20.89% in the playoffs.
Average Goals by Period
| Period | Regular Season |
Overtime | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.7260 | 1.5300 | 1.7106 |
| 2 | 2.0100 | 1.9530 | 2.0055 |
| 3 | 2.0151 | 1.9008 | 2.0062 |
| Overtime | 0.2257 | 0.2089 | 0.2244 |
| Total | 5.9768 | 5.5927 | 5.9467 |
The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for a single team.
Number of Goals per Team by Period
| Goals | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42.02% | 36.04% | 37.08% |
| 1 | 37.01% | 37.84% | 35.67% |
| 2 | 15.59% | 17.94% | 19.22% |
| 3 | 4.39% | 6.50% | 6.22% |
| 4 | 0.81% | 1.41% | 1.56% |
| 5 | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.23% |
| 6 | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| 7 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Average | 0.8553 | 1.0028 | 1.0031 |
The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for both teams combined.
Number of Goals per Team by Period
| Goals | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.68% | 12.80% | 12.21% |
| 1 | 30.75% | 26.38% | 26.87% |
| 2 | 26.77% | 28.35% | 28.33% |
| 3 | 15.77% | 18.65% | 19.43% |
| 4 | 6.58% | 9.39% | 8.88% |
| 5 | 1.78% | 3.16% | 2.81% |
| 6 | 0.51% | 0.82% | 1.15% |
| 7 | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.29% |
| 8 | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.04% |
| 9 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Average | 1.7106 | 2.0055 | 2.0062 |
The following shows the number of goals scored by the home team across the road team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Number of Goals by Home Team across Road Team
| Home Goals |
Road Goals |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
| 0 | 0 | 40 | 46 | 88 | 61 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 264 |
| 1 | 51 | 0 | 214 | 129 | 178 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 680 |
| 2 | 49 | 227 | 0 | 334 | 151 | 130 | 41 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 952 |
| 3 | 96 | 168 | 336 | 0 | 278 | 96 | 56 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1055 |
| 4 | 68 | 180 | 191 | 274 | 0 | 128 | 24 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 887 |
| 5 | 32 | 97 | 223 | 89 | 106 | 0 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 591 |
| 6 | 11 | 44 | 56 | 93 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 283 |
| 7 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 316 | 786 | 1098 | 1048 | 841 | 492 | 195 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 4875 |
The following shows the number of goals scored by the winning team across the losing team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Number of Goals per by Winning Team across Losing Team
| Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| 2 | 95 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 536 |
| 3 | 184 | 297 | 670 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1151 |
| 4 | 129 | 358 | 342 | 552 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 5 | 52 | 167 | 353 | 185 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 991 |
| 6 | 20 | 67 | 97 | 149 | 62 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 464 |
| 7 | 6 | 35 | 38 | 49 | 40 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 |
| 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 580 | 1375 | 1514 | 952 | 347 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4875 |
The following table shows the number the count for each margin of victory and the probability for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Margin of Victory
| Margin | Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2,069 | 42.44% |
| 2 | 996 | 20.43% |
| 3 | 1,095 | 22.46% |
| 4 | 451 | 9.25% |
| 5 | 172 | 3.53% |
| 6 | 71 | 1.46% |
| 7 | 14 | 0.29% |
| 8 | 4 | 0.08% |
| 9 | 3 | 0.06% |
| Total | 4,875 | 100.00% |
The following table shows various statistics per game for road and home teams as well as the total between the two.
Miscellaneous Statistics — Road vs. Home
| Description | Road Team | Home Team | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shifts | 384.95 | 379.46 | 764.41 |
| Shots on goal | 30.56 | 31.87 | 62.43 |
| Shots missed | 11.36 | 12.16 | 23.52 |
| Shots blocked | 14.34 | 13.90 | 28.24 |
| Assists | 4.68 | 5.16 | 9.84 |
| Points* | 7.47 | 8.22 | 15.70 |
| Penalties | 3.58 | 3.34 | 6.92 |
| Penalty minutes | 8.47 | 7.92 | 16.40 |
| Hits | 22.37 | 23.29 | 45.66 |
| Take aways | 6.32 | 7.97 | 14.29 |
| Give aways | 7.95 | 10.56 | 18.52 |
| Faceoffs won | 28.42 | 29.93 | 58.35 |
| Faceoffs lost | 29.93 | 28.42 | 58.34 |
The following table shows various statistics per game for regular season and play offs games as well as the total between the two.
Miscellaneous Statistics — Regular Season vs. Playoffs
| Description | Regular Season |
Playoffs | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shifts | 759.22 | 825.24 | 764.41 |
| Shots on goal | 62.40 | 62.79 | 62.43 |
| Shots missed | 23.48 | 23.95 | 23.52 |
| Shots blocked | 27.92 | 31.91 | 28.24 |
| Assists | 9.88 | 9.34 | 9.84 |
| Points | 15.76 | 14.93 | 15.70 |
| Penalties | 6.85 | 7.77 | 6.92 |
| Penalty minutes | 16.16 | 19.18 | 16.40 |
| Hits | 43.74 | 68.15 | 45.66 |
| Take aways | 14.28 | 14.39 | 14.29 |
| Give aways | 18.32 | 20.89 | 18.52 |
| Faceoffs won | 58.29 | 59.09 | 58.35 |
Notes:
*: A point is different from a goal. Points may be awarded to players assisting in a goal. The ratio of points to goals in the NHL for the four seasons starting in 2017 is 2.64.
The following table shows the ratio of goals to shots on goals cut various ways.
Ratio of Goals to Shots
| Category | Ratio |
|---|---|
| Away | 9.29% |
| Home | 9.75% |
| Regular season | 9.58% |
| Playoffs | 8.91% |
| Total | 9.52% |