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Super 4 Poker

Introduction

Super 4 Poker is a poker variation by AGS, which is the same thing as Crazy 4 Poker. I first heard of it when it began a field trial at the Grand Sierra in Reno on May 26, 2021.

Rules

  1. Play starts with the player making equal bets on the Ante and X-Tra Bonus. The player may also bet on the Player Bonus side bet at this time.
  2. Following is the ranking of hands from highest to lowest:
    • Four of a kind.
    • Straight flush
    • Three of a kind
    • Flush
    • Straight
    • Two pair
    • Pair
    • Four singletons
  3. All player and dealer get five cards each.
  4. The player decides to fold or raise by making a Play wager.
  5. If the player folds he forfeits all bets.
  6. The Ante bet may be up to three times the Ante bet if the player has at least a pair of aces. Otherwise, the Ante bet must be exactly equal to the Ante bet.
  7. Players make their best four-card poker hand, and discard the fifth card.
  8. After all decisions have been made, the dealer will turn over his cards and select the best four out of five.
  9. The player's hand shall be compared to the dealer's hand, the higher hand winning.
  10. For purposes of the Ante bet only, the dealer needs at least a king high to open.
  11. The Ante bet pays as follows:
    • Dealer does not open: Ante pushes.
    • Dealer opens and player wins: Ante wins.
    • Dealer opens and ties: Ante pushes.
    • Dealer opens and wins: Ante loses.
  12. The Ante bet pays as follows:
    • Dealer does not open: Play wins.
    • Dealer opens and player wins: Play wins.
    • Dealer opens and ties player: Play pushes.
    • Dealer opens and wins: Play loses.
  13. The X-Tra Bonus bet pays as follows. It is not pertinent whether or not the dealer opens.
    • Player has straight or higher (beating dealer not required): X-Tra Bonus wins according to pay table below.
    • Player has less than straight and wins or pushes: X-Tra Bonus pushes.
    • Player has less than straight and loses: X-Tra Bonus loses.

X-Tra Bonus Pay Table

Player Hand Pays
Four aces 200
Four 2-K 30
Straight flush 15
Three of a kind 2
Flush 1.5
Straight 1

Strategy

Optimal strategy would be tedious and complicated memorize. However, the player can get extremely close to it with this simple strategy. Follow the first rule to apply.

  1. Make large raise when allowed (with pair of aces or higher).
  2. Make small raise with K-Q-8-4 or higher.
  3. Fold all other.

The increase in house edge with the KQ84 strategy, compared to optimal, is 0.000089%.

Analysis

The next table shows the return of the Ante bet under optimal player strategy.

Ante Bet

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Win 1 1,415,369,375,148 0.355028 0.355028
Push 0 473,003,972,892 0.118647 0.000000
Loss -1 2,098,272,755,400 0.526325 -0.526325
Total   3,986,646,103,440 1.000000 -0.171298

The next table shows the return of the Ante bet under optimal player strategy. A win of 0 also includes folding, in which case a raise bet was never made.

Raise Bet

Win Combinations Probability Return
3 671,609,661,948 0.168465 0.505394
1 1,215,649,215,684 0.304930 0.304930
0 938,265,298,824 0.235352 0.000000
-1 1,093,014,959,196 0.274169 -0.274169
-3 68,106,967,788 0.017084 -0.051251
Total 3,986,646,103,440 1.000000 0.484904

The next table shows the return of the X-Tra Bonus bet under optimal player strategy.

X-Tra Bonus Bet

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Four aces 200 73,629,072 0.000018 0.003694
Four 2-K 30 883,548,864 0.000222 0.006649
Straight flush 15 3,178,321,608 0.000797 0.011959
Three of a kind 2 89,974,725,984 0.022569 0.045138
Flush 1.5 175,813,952,424 0.044101 0.066151
Straight 1 156,167,261,712 0.039173 0.039173
Push 0 1,485,273,310,140 0.372562 0.000000
Loss -1 2,075,281,353,636 0.520558 -0.520558
Total   3,986,646,103,440 1.000000 -0.347795

The next table summarizes the Ante, Play, and X-Tra Bonus bets. The sum shows the player can expect to lose 3.48% for every hand played, compared to the size of his Ante (or X-Tra Bonus) bet. For example, if the player started with $10 on both the Ante and X-Tra Bonus, then he could expect to lose 34.8¢, assuming optimal strategy.

Summary

Bet Return
Ante -0.171298
Raise 0.484904
X-Tra Bonus -0.347795
Total -0.034189

The next table shows the net overall win between the Ante, Play, and X-Tra Bonus under optimal player strategy.

Net Win

Win Combinations Probability Return
204 56,580,432 0.000014 0.002895
203 17,048,640 0.000004 0.000868
34 764,060,808 0.000192 0.006516
33 119,340,480 0.000030 0.000988
26 147,576 0.000000 0.000001
19 2,708,500,216 0.000679 0.012908
18 467,451,204 0.000117 0.002111
15 239,544 0.000000 0.000001
11 2,130,644 0.000001 0.000006
6 75,428,689,424 0.018920 0.113522
5.5 140,729,630,976 0.035300 0.194151
5 132,528,726,036 0.033243 0.166216
4.5 26,782,817,436 0.006718 0.030232
4 240,544,812,516 0.060338 0.241351
3 51,462,003,780 0.012909 0.038726
2 859,165,302,444 0.215511 0.431022
1.5 11,157,384 0.000003 0.000004
1 356,744,817,336 0.089485 0.089485
0 842,169,384 0.000211 0.000000
-2 938,364,828,496 0.235377 -0.470754
-2.5 8,290,346,628 0.002080 -0.005199
-3 1,106,499,736,032 0.277552 -0.832655
-5 45,115,566,024 0.011317 -0.056583
Total 3,986,646,103,440 1.000000 -0.034189

The bottom right cell of the table above shows a house edge of 3.42%. This is the ratio of the expected player loss to the Ante bet. One might argue that since the X-Tra Bonus bet is required I define the house edge as the expected loss to the sum of the required starting bets. However, in the interests of consistency with how the term is defined in other games, I choose to base the house edge on the Ante only. So, for every $100 you bet on the Ante you can expect to lose $3.42 between the Ante, Raise, and X-Tra Bonus combined.

The standard deviation is 3.13, based on the Ante bet.

Overall the player has a 18.56% chance of making a big raise, 57.93% for a small raise, and 23.51% for folding, for an average final wager of 3.14 units. Thus, the element of risk of the game (ratio of expected loss to average total bet) is 3.42%/3.14 = 1.09%.

Player Bonus

Crazy 4 Poker, which is the same thing as this game, has four Player Bonus pay tables I am aware of, analyzed below. The one used at the Grand Sierra is pay table 4.

Player Bonus Pay Tables

Player Hand Pay Table 1 Pay Table 2 Pay Table 3 Pay Table 4
Four of a kind 50 to 1 50 to 1 50 to 1 50 to 1
Straight flush 30 to 1 40 to 1 30 to 1 40 to 1
Three of a kind 9 to 1 8 to 1 8 to 1 7 to 1
Flush 4 to 1 4 to 1 4 to 1 4 to 1
Straight 3 to 1 3 to 1 3 to 1 3 to 1
Two pair 2 to 1 2 to 1 2 to 1 2 to 1
Pair of queens or better 1 to 1 1 to 1 1 to 1 1 to 1

Player Bonus — Pay Table 1

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Four of a kind 50 624 0.000240 0.012005
Straight flush 30 2,072 0.000797 0.023917
Three of a kind 9 58,656 0.022569 0.203121
Flush 4 114,616 0.044101 0.176403
Straight 3 101,808 0.039173 0.117518
Two pair 2 123,552 0.047539 0.095078
Pair of Qs to As 1 242,916 0.093467 0.093467
Loser -1 1,954,716 0.752115 -0.752115
Total   2,598,960 1.000000 -0.030606

Player Bonus — Pay Table 2

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Four of a kind 50 624 0.000240 0.012005
Straight flush 40 2,072 0.000797 0.031890
Three of a kind 8 58,656 0.022569 0.180552
Flush 4 114,616 0.044101 0.176403
Straight 3 101,808 0.039173 0.117518
Two pair 2 123,552 0.047539 0.095078
Pair of Qs to As 1 242,916 0.093467 0.093467
Loser -1 1,954,716 0.752115 -0.752115
Total   2,598,960 1.000000 -0.045203

Player Bonus — Pay Table 3

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Four of a kind 50 624 0.000240 0.012005
Straight flush 30 2,072 0.000797 0.023917
Three of a kind 8 58,656 0.022569 0.180552
Flush 4 114,616 0.044101 0.176403
Straight 3 101,808 0.039173 0.117518
Two pair 2 123,552 0.047539 0.095078
Pair of Qs to As 1 242,916 0.093467 0.093467
Loser -1 1,954,716 0.752115 -0.752115
Total   2,598,960 1.000000 -0.053175

Player Bonus — Pay Table 4

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Four of a kind 50 624 0.000240 0.012005
Straight flush 40 2,072 0.000797 0.031890
Three of a kind 7 58,656 0.022569 0.157983
Flush 4 114,616 0.044101 0.176403
Straight 3 101,808 0.039173 0.117518
Two pair 2 123,552 0.047539 0.095078
Pair of Qs to As 1 242,916 0.093467 0.093467
Loser -1 1,954,716 0.752115 -0.752115
Total   2,598,960 1.000000 -0.067772