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Super 4 Poker
Introduction
Super 4 Poker is a poker variation by AGS, which is the same thing as Crazy 4 Poker. I first heard of it when it began a field trial at the Grand Sierra in Reno on May 26, 2021.
Rules
- Play starts with the player making equal bets on the Ante and X-Tra Bonus. The player may also bet on the Player Bonus side bet at this time.
- Following is the ranking of hands from highest to lowest:
- Four of a kind.
- Straight flush
- Three of a kind
- Flush
- Straight
- Two pair
- Pair
- Four singletons
- All player and dealer get five cards each.
- The player decides to fold or raise by making a Play wager.
- If the player folds he forfeits all bets.
- The Ante bet may be up to three times the Ante bet if the player has at least a pair of aces. Otherwise, the Ante bet must be exactly equal to the Ante bet.
- Players make their best four-card poker hand, and discard the fifth card.
- After all decisions have been made, the dealer will turn over his cards and select the best four out of five.
- The player's hand shall be compared to the dealer's hand, the higher hand winning.
- For purposes of the Ante bet only, the dealer needs at least a king high to open.
- The Ante bet pays as follows:
- Dealer does not open: Ante pushes.
- Dealer opens and player wins: Ante wins.
- Dealer opens and ties: Ante pushes.
- Dealer opens and wins: Ante loses.
- The Ante bet pays as follows:
- Dealer does not open: Play wins.
- Dealer opens and player wins: Play wins.
- Dealer opens and ties player: Play pushes.
- Dealer opens and wins: Play loses.
- The X-Tra Bonus bet pays as follows. It is not pertinent whether or not the dealer opens.
- Player has straight or higher (beating dealer not required): X-Tra Bonus wins according to pay table below.
- Player has less than straight and wins or pushes: X-Tra Bonus pushes.
- Player has less than straight and loses: X-Tra Bonus loses.
X-Tra Bonus Pay Table
Player Hand | Pays |
---|---|
Four aces | 200 |
Four 2-K | 30 |
Straight flush | 15 |
Three of a kind | 2 |
Flush | 1.5 |
Straight | 1 |
Strategy
Optimal strategy would be tedious and complicated memorize. However, the player can get extremely close to it with this simple strategy. Follow the first rule to apply.
- Make large raise when allowed (with pair of aces or higher).
- Make small raise with K-Q-8-4 or higher.
- Fold all other.
The increase in house edge with the KQ84 strategy, compared to optimal, is 0.000089%.
Analysis
The next table shows the return of the Ante bet under optimal player strategy.
Ante Bet
Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Win | 1 | 1,415,369,375,148 | 0.355028 | 0.355028 |
Push | 0 | 473,003,972,892 | 0.118647 | 0.000000 |
Loss | -1 | 2,098,272,755,400 | 0.526325 | -0.526325 |
Total | 3,986,646,103,440 | 1.000000 | -0.171298 |
The next table shows the return of the Ante bet under optimal player strategy. A win of 0 also includes folding, in which case a raise bet was never made.
Raise Bet
Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
3 | 671,609,661,948 | 0.168465 | 0.505394 |
1 | 1,215,649,215,684 | 0.304930 | 0.304930 |
0 | 938,265,298,824 | 0.235352 | 0.000000 |
-1 | 1,093,014,959,196 | 0.274169 | -0.274169 |
-3 | 68,106,967,788 | 0.017084 | -0.051251 |
Total | 3,986,646,103,440 | 1.000000 | 0.484904 |
The next table shows the return of the X-Tra Bonus bet under optimal player strategy.
X-Tra Bonus Bet
Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Four aces | 200 | 73,629,072 | 0.000018 | 0.003694 |
Four 2-K | 30 | 883,548,864 | 0.000222 | 0.006649 |
Straight flush | 15 | 3,178,321,608 | 0.000797 | 0.011959 |
Three of a kind | 2 | 89,974,725,984 | 0.022569 | 0.045138 |
Flush | 1.5 | 175,813,952,424 | 0.044101 | 0.066151 |
Straight | 1 | 156,167,261,712 | 0.039173 | 0.039173 |
Push | 0 | 1,485,273,310,140 | 0.372562 | 0.000000 |
Loss | -1 | 2,075,281,353,636 | 0.520558 | -0.520558 |
Total | 3,986,646,103,440 | 1.000000 | -0.347795 |
The next table summarizes the Ante, Play, and X-Tra Bonus bets. The sum shows the player can expect to lose 3.48% for every hand played, compared to the size of his Ante (or X-Tra Bonus) bet. For example, if the player started with $10 on both the Ante and X-Tra Bonus, then he could expect to lose 34.8¢, assuming optimal strategy.
Summary
Bet | Return |
---|---|
Ante | -0.171298 |
Raise | 0.484904 |
X-Tra Bonus | -0.347795 |
Total | -0.034189 |
The next table shows the net overall win between the Ante, Play, and X-Tra Bonus under optimal player strategy.
Net Win
Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
204 | 56,580,432 | 0.000014 | 0.002895 |
203 | 17,048,640 | 0.000004 | 0.000868 |
34 | 764,060,808 | 0.000192 | 0.006516 |
33 | 119,340,480 | 0.000030 | 0.000988 |
26 | 147,576 | 0.000000 | 0.000001 |
19 | 2,708,500,216 | 0.000679 | 0.012908 |
18 | 467,451,204 | 0.000117 | 0.002111 |
15 | 239,544 | 0.000000 | 0.000001 |
11 | 2,130,644 | 0.000001 | 0.000006 |
6 | 75,428,689,424 | 0.018920 | 0.113522 |
5.5 | 140,729,630,976 | 0.035300 | 0.194151 |
5 | 132,528,726,036 | 0.033243 | 0.166216 |
4.5 | 26,782,817,436 | 0.006718 | 0.030232 |
4 | 240,544,812,516 | 0.060338 | 0.241351 |
3 | 51,462,003,780 | 0.012909 | 0.038726 |
2 | 859,165,302,444 | 0.215511 | 0.431022 |
1.5 | 11,157,384 | 0.000003 | 0.000004 |
1 | 356,744,817,336 | 0.089485 | 0.089485 |
0 | 842,169,384 | 0.000211 | 0.000000 |
-2 | 938,364,828,496 | 0.235377 | -0.470754 |
-2.5 | 8,290,346,628 | 0.002080 | -0.005199 |
-3 | 1,106,499,736,032 | 0.277552 | -0.832655 |
-5 | 45,115,566,024 | 0.011317 | -0.056583 |
Total | 3,986,646,103,440 | 1.000000 | -0.034189 |
The bottom right cell of the table above shows a house edge of 3.42%. This is the ratio of the expected player loss to the Ante bet. One might argue that since the X-Tra Bonus bet is required I define the house edge as the expected loss to the sum of the required starting bets. However, in the interests of consistency with how the term is defined in other games, I choose to base the house edge on the Ante only. So, for every $100 you bet on the Ante you can expect to lose $3.42 between the Ante, Raise, and X-Tra Bonus combined.
The standard deviation is 3.13, based on the Ante bet.
Overall the player has a 18.56% chance of making a big raise, 57.93% for a small raise, and 23.51% for folding, for an average final wager of 3.14 units. Thus, the element of risk of the game (ratio of expected loss to average total bet) is 3.42%/3.14 = 1.09%.
Player Bonus
Crazy 4 Poker, which is the same thing as this game, has four Player Bonus pay tables I am aware of, analyzed below. The one used at the Grand Sierra is pay table 4.
Player Bonus Pay Tables
Player Hand | Pay Table 1 | Pay Table 2 | Pay Table 3 | Pay Table 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Four of a kind | 50 to 1 | 50 to 1 | 50 to 1 | 50 to 1 |
Straight flush | 30 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 30 to 1 | 40 to 1 |
Three of a kind | 9 to 1 | 8 to 1 | 8 to 1 | 7 to 1 |
Flush | 4 to 1 | 4 to 1 | 4 to 1 | 4 to 1 |
Straight | 3 to 1 | 3 to 1 | 3 to 1 | 3 to 1 |
Two pair | 2 to 1 | 2 to 1 | 2 to 1 | 2 to 1 |
Pair of queens or better | 1 to 1 | 1 to 1 | 1 to 1 | 1 to 1 |
Player Bonus — Pay Table 1
Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Four of a kind | 50 | 624 | 0.000240 | 0.012005 |
Straight flush | 30 | 2,072 | 0.000797 | 0.023917 |
Three of a kind | 9 | 58,656 | 0.022569 | 0.203121 |
Flush | 4 | 114,616 | 0.044101 | 0.176403 |
Straight | 3 | 101,808 | 0.039173 | 0.117518 |
Two pair | 2 | 123,552 | 0.047539 | 0.095078 |
Pair of Qs to As | 1 | 242,916 | 0.093467 | 0.093467 |
Loser | -1 | 1,954,716 | 0.752115 | -0.752115 |
Total | 2,598,960 | 1.000000 | -0.030606 |
Player Bonus — Pay Table 2
Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Four of a kind | 50 | 624 | 0.000240 | 0.012005 |
Straight flush | 40 | 2,072 | 0.000797 | 0.031890 |
Three of a kind | 8 | 58,656 | 0.022569 | 0.180552 |
Flush | 4 | 114,616 | 0.044101 | 0.176403 |
Straight | 3 | 101,808 | 0.039173 | 0.117518 |
Two pair | 2 | 123,552 | 0.047539 | 0.095078 |
Pair of Qs to As | 1 | 242,916 | 0.093467 | 0.093467 |
Loser | -1 | 1,954,716 | 0.752115 | -0.752115 |
Total | 2,598,960 | 1.000000 | -0.045203 |
Player Bonus — Pay Table 3
Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Four of a kind | 50 | 624 | 0.000240 | 0.012005 |
Straight flush | 30 | 2,072 | 0.000797 | 0.023917 |
Three of a kind | 8 | 58,656 | 0.022569 | 0.180552 |
Flush | 4 | 114,616 | 0.044101 | 0.176403 |
Straight | 3 | 101,808 | 0.039173 | 0.117518 |
Two pair | 2 | 123,552 | 0.047539 | 0.095078 |
Pair of Qs to As | 1 | 242,916 | 0.093467 | 0.093467 |
Loser | -1 | 1,954,716 | 0.752115 | -0.752115 |
Total | 2,598,960 | 1.000000 | -0.053175 |
Player Bonus — Pay Table 4
Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Four of a kind | 50 | 624 | 0.000240 | 0.012005 |
Straight flush | 40 | 2,072 | 0.000797 | 0.031890 |
Three of a kind | 7 | 58,656 | 0.022569 | 0.157983 |
Flush | 4 | 114,616 | 0.044101 | 0.176403 |
Straight | 3 | 101,808 | 0.039173 | 0.117518 |
Two pair | 2 | 123,552 | 0.047539 | 0.095078 |
Pair of Qs to As | 1 | 242,916 | 0.093467 | 0.093467 |
Loser | -1 | 1,954,716 | 0.752115 | -0.752115 |
Total | 2,598,960 | 1.000000 | -0.067772 |