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100% Rebate on Video Poker Losses
Introduction
In the year prior to the writing of this page, I've known of two casinos that offered 100% rebate on slot losses promotions, including video poker. This type of promotion can be very lucrative. This page endeavors to show how much the player can expect to win and what winning goal the player should set for playing video poker.
Strategy
When casinos offer rebates on any machine they often unfortunately remove or remove from eligibility high-denomination video poker games. In the case where the player can bet significantly more at a time in slots compared to video poker, the player should consider playing reeled slots instead. I have another page about 100% rebates on slot losses. This page considers video poker only.
Normally, volatility is the enemy of the advantage player, but when trying to exploit a loss rebate, it is your friend. You don't want the house edge to grind you down, but your goal should be to quickly hit your winning goal, or go bust trying. That said, you should make the largest wagers possible. Hopefully there will be $25-denomination video poker games available, or $5 five-play games. If not, again, you should consider playing reeled slots.
This page shows the optimal quitting point according to the maximum loss that will be refunded and four common single-line video poker pay tables.
Example
For example, for 8-5 Bonus Poker and 800-credit maximum loss, the table below shows the optimal goal is a win of 860 units, with an expected win of 295.52 units, and a probability of success of 27.89%. However, for practical purposes, notice how the expected win is almost as high for much smaller win goals. Factoring in the Kelly Criterion and the lost time having to return to collect the rebate, I think a reasonable target is about half the optimal winning goal.
For those who don't understand what I mean by a "unit," it means a total bet. In the example above, if you bet 5 coins on a $25-denomination game, then a unit is $125. A winning goal of 500 units would have an expected win of 282.06 credits. At $125 a bet, that would be an expected win of $125 × 282.06 = $35,257.50.
800-Credit Bankroll
8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 800 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 193.54 | 62.07% |
| 200 | 243.23 | 51.13% |
| 300 | 263.00 | 46.11% |
| 400 | 274.06 | 42.79% |
| 500 | 282.06 | 39.86% |
| 600 | 288.25 | 36.85% |
| 700 | 292.78 | 33.59% |
| 800 | 295.25 | 30.01% |
| 860 | 295.52 | 27.89% |
| 900 | 295.22 | 26.64% |
| 1000 | 293.33 | 24.09% |
25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 800 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 173.33 | 66.11% |
| 200 | 216.71 | 56.32% |
| 300 | 246.16 | 48.74% |
| 400 | 262.59 | 43.72% |
| 500 | 273.11 | 39.72% |
| 600 | 279.77 | 36.24% |
| 700 | 283.87 | 32.95% |
| 800 | 285.69 | 29.65% |
| 820 | 285.77 | 28.99% |
| 900 | 285.09 | 26.64% |
| 1000 | 282.70 | 24.07% |
9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 800 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 220.50 | 63.40% |
| 200 | 273.01 | 54.06% |
| 300 | 293.29 | 50.16% |
| 400 | 306.49 | 47.38% |
| 500 | 318.06 | 44.68% |
| 600 | 329.13 | 41.79% |
| 700 | 339.70 | 38.61% |
| 800 | 349.62 | 35.06% |
| 900 | 357.35 | 31.72% |
| 1000 | 361.52 | 29.31% |
| 1100 | 363.64 | 27.42% |
| 1200 | 364.58 | 25.74% |
| 1230 | 364.66 | 25.25% |
| 1300 | 364.45 | 24.14% |
| 1400 | 363.53 | 22.61% |
| 1500 | 361.65 | 21.15% |
9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 800 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 166.29 | 73.09% |
| 200 | 222.06 | 63.34% |
| 300 | 257.69 | 56.68% |
| 400 | 284.36 | 51.24% |
| 500 | 304.45 | 46.64% |
| 600 | 319.62 | 42.77% |
| 700 | 331.32 | 39.35% |
| 800 | 340.25 | 36.13% |
| 900 | 347.00 | 33.25% |
| 1000 | 351.26 | 30.69% |
| 1100 | 353.81 | 28.42% |
| 1200 | 354.83 | 26.38% |
| 1260 | 355.11 | 25.27% |
| 1300 | 355.02 | 24.57% |
| 1400 | 354.12 | 22.92% |
| 1500 | 352.21 | 21.41% |
400-Credit Bankroll
8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 400 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 108.71 | 62.77% |
| 100 | 149.73 | 47.66% |
| 150 | 171.38 | 39.07% |
| 200 | 182.63 | 34.25% |
| 250 | 188.35 | 31.53% |
| 300 | 191.25 | 29.99% |
| 350 | 192.71 | 29.13% |
| 400 | 193.41 | 28.64% |
| 450 | 193.90 | 28.22% |
| 500 | 194.44 | 27.61% |
| 550 | 194.95 | 26.77% |
| 600 | 195.34 | 25.71% |
| 640 | 195.45 | 24.74% |
| 650 | 195.43 | 24.47% |
| 700 | 195.14 | 23.08% |
| 750 | 194.33 | 21.55% |
25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 400 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 135.85 | 53.50% |
| 200 | 163.68 | 42.03% |
| 300 | 179.75 | 34.08% |
| 400 | 186.08 | 29.97% |
| 500 | 188.92 | 27.10% |
| 600 | 189.99 | 24.66% |
| 630 | 190.04 | 23.94% |
| 700 | 189.61 | 22.23% |
| 800 | 187.62 | 19.62% |
| 900 | 184.36 | 17.27% |
| 1000 | 180.37 | 15.34% |
9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 400 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 171.30 | 46.94% |
| 200 | 205.85 | 35.29% |
| 300 | 213.35 | 32.46% |
| 400 | 214.96 | 31.78% |
| 500 | 216.49 | 30.99% |
| 600 | 219.63 | 28.99% |
| 700 | 222.96 | 26.19% |
| 800 | 225.43 | 22.85% |
| 900 | 226.35 | 19.83% |
| 920 | 226.37 | 19.38% |
| 1000 | 226.03 | 18.00% |
| 1100 | 225.28 | 16.82% |
| 1200 | 224.07 | 15.81% |
9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 400 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 133.45 | 60.35% |
| 200 | 169.99 | 48.40% |
| 300 | 189.75 | 41.26% |
| 400 | 202.35 | 36.08% |
| 500 | 210.76 | 32.08% |
| 600 | 216.18 | 28.89% |
| 700 | 219.77 | 26.15% |
| 800 | 221.98 | 23.62% |
| 900 | 222.99 | 21.39% |
| 910 | 223.02 | 21.18% |
| 1000 | 222.78 | 19.47% |
| 1100 | 221.93 | 17.82% |
| 1200 | 220.29 | 16.37% |
200-Credit Bankroll
8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 200 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 72.39 | 54.08% |
| 100 | 96.77 | 36.73% |
| 150 | 108.69 | 27.17% |
| 200 | 114.44 | 21.89% |
| 250 | 117.08 | 18.93% |
| 300 | 118.28 | 17.28% |
| 350 | 118.76 | 16.35% |
| 400 | 118.92 | 15.82% |
| 450 | 118.96 | 15.53% |
| 500 | 118.93 | 15.36% |
| 550 | 118.90 | 15.27% |
| 600 | 118.87 | 15.22% |
25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 200 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 80.29 | 50.04% |
| 100 | 93.95 | 40.63% |
| 150 | 101.07 | 35.07% |
| 200 | 107.39 | 29.33% |
| 250 | 111.81 | 24.54% |
| 300 | 113.91 | 21.69% |
| 350 | 115.01 | 19.62% |
| 400 | 115.56 | 17.96% |
| 450 | 115.69 | 16.71% |
| 500 | 115.60 | 15.81% |
| 550 | 115.34 | 15.13% |
| 600 | 115.01 | 14.61% |
9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 200 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 109.08 | 35.07% |
| 200 | 128.88 | 21.57% |
| 300 | 132.85 | 18.34% |
| 400 | 133.61 | 17.56% |
| 500 | 133.74 | 17.37% |
| 600 | 133.75 | 17.32% |
| 630 | 133.76 | 17.26% |
| 700 | 133.65 | 16.55% |
| 800 | 132.68 | 14.18% |
| 900 | 130.67 | 11.61% |
| 1000 | 128.89 | 10.15% |
9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 200 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 95.93 | 45.66% |
| 200 | 114.97 | 33.29% |
| 300 | 123.22 | 27.06% |
| 400 | 127.83 | 22.67% |
| 500 | 130.21 | 19.49% |
| 600 | 131.14 | 17.35% |
| 690 | 131.30 | 15.80% |
| 700 | 131.30 | 15.64% |
| 800 | 130.81 | 13.96% |
| 900 | 129.80 | 12.47% |
| 1000 | 128.33 | 11.22% |
100-Credit Bankroll
8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 100 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 46.82 | 43.89% |
| 100 | 58.71 | 26.82% |
| 150 | 63.58 | 18.13% |
| 200 | 65.46 | 13.54% |
| 250 | 66.07 | 11.03% |
| 300 | 66.18 | 9.64% |
| 350 | 66.10 | 8.87% |
| 400 | 65.97 | 8.43% |
| 450 | 65.86 | 8.19% |
| 500 | 65.77 | 8.06% |
| 550 | 65.71 | 7.98% |
| 600 | 65.66 | 7.93% |
| 650 | 65.62 | 7.91% |
25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 100 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55.02 | 34.50% |
| 100 | 60.65 | 26.75% |
| 150 | 62.38 | 23.75% |
| 200 | 64.45 | 18.94% |
| 250 | 65.65 | 14.85% |
| 300 | 65.88 | 12.83% |
| 310 | 65.89 | 12.52% |
| 350 | 65.79 | 11.40% |
| 400 | 65.47 | 10.19% |
| 450 | 65.08 | 9.30% |
| 500 | 64.66 | 8.67% |
9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 100 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 49.19 | 44.50% |
| 100 | 64.38 | 25.47% |
| 150 | 70.40 | 16.91% |
| 200 | 72.84 | 12.87% |
| 250 | 73.80 | 10.92% |
| 300 | 74.17 | 9.97% |
| 350 | 74.29 | 9.51% |
| 400 | 74.33 | 9.28% |
| 420 | 74.33 | 9.22% |
| 450 | 74.33 | 9.17% |
| 500 | 74.33 | 9.11% |
| 550 | 74.32 | 9.08% |
| 600 | 74.32 | 9.07% |
9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 100 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 53.00 | 42.30% |
| 100 | 62.03 | 31.58% |
| 150 | 66.94 | 25.16% |
| 200 | 70.09 | 20.54% |
| 250 | 71.71 | 17.81% |
| 300 | 72.58 | 16.03% |
| 350 | 73.13 | 14.56% |
| 400 | 73.49 | 13.12% |
| 450 | 73.64 | 11.93% |
| 500 | 73.61 | 10.98% |
| 550 | 73.48 | 10.21% |
| 600 | 73.27 | 9.57% |
| 650 | 73.01 | 9.05% |
| 700 | 72.72 | 8.62% |
| 750 | 72.36 | 8.18% |
| 800 | 71.87 | 7.69% |
| 850 | 71.32 | 7.22% |
| 900 | 70.73 | 6.80% |
| 950 | 70.13 | 6.43% |
| 1000 | 69.51 | 6.08% |
50-Credit Bankroll
8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 50 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | 21.90 | 50.96% |
| 40 | 27.74 | 36.69% |
| 60 | 30.95 | 28.03% |
| 80 | 32.90 | 22.07% |
| 100 | 34.14 | 17.65% |
| 120 | 34.88 | 14.46% |
| 140 | 35.30 | 12.09% |
| 160 | 35.53 | 10.30% |
| 180 | 35.62 | 8.93% |
| 190 | 35.64 | 8.37% |
| 200 | 35.63 | 7.87% |
| 220 | 35.59 | 7.05% |
| 240 | 35.52 | 6.41% |
25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 50 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | 24.58 | 44.42% |
| 40 | 31.48 | 27.44% |
| 60 | 34.25 | 19.94% |
| 80 | 35.38 | 16.54% |
| 100 | 35.84 | 14.98% |
| 120 | 36.01 | 14.26% |
| 140 | 36.08 | 13.93% |
| 160 | 36.11 | 13.68% |
| 180 | 36.18 | 12.89% |
| 200 | 36.23 | 11.50% |
| 220 | 36.20 | 10.00% |
| 240 | 36.11 | 8.85% |
| 260 | 36.00 | 8.03% |
| 280 | 35.88 | 7.46% |
| 300 | 35.77 | 7.03% |
9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 50 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 30.35 | 33.22% |
| 100 | 36.58 | 16.89% |
| 150 | 38.54 | 10.31% |
| 200 | 39.15 | 7.35% |
| 250 | 39.30 | 5.95% |
| 270 | 39.31 | 5.62% |
| 300 | 39.30 | 5.28% |
| 350 | 39.26 | 4.95% |
| 400 | 39.22 | 4.79% |
9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 50 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 33.36 | 0.28 |
| 100 | 37.07 | 0.19 |
| 150 | 38.47 | 0.15 |
| 200 | 39.37 | 0.12 |
| 250 | 39.71 | 0.10 |
| 300 | 39.81 | 0.09 |
| 320 | 39.82 | 0.08 |
| 350 | 39.80 | 0.08 |
| 400 | 39.70 | 0.07 |
| 450 | 26.54 | 0.04 |
| 500 | 21.61 | 0.03 |
25-Credit Bankroll
8-5 Bonus Poker — Max Loss = 25 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 11.63 | 49.84% |
| 20 | 14.44 | 37.04% |
| 30 | 16.00 | 29.47% |
| 40 | 17.01 | 24.20% |
| 50 | 17.68 | 20.36% |
| 60 | 18.11 | 17.62% |
| 70 | 18.42 | 15.43% |
| 80 | 18.65 | 13.50% |
| 90 | 18.81 | 11.85% |
| 100 | 18.91 | 10.50% |
| 110 | 18.97 | 9.37% |
| 120 | 19.00 | 8.42% |
| 130 | 19.01 | 7.61% |
| 140 | 18.99 | 6.91% |
| 150 | 18.97 | 6.32% |
25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Max Loss = 25 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | 15.05 | 33.66% |
| 40 | 18.06 | 18.31% |
| 60 | 19.08 | 12.08% |
| 80 | 19.44 | 9.35% |
| 100 | 19.55 | 8.12% |
| 120 | 19.58 | 7.56% |
| 130 | 19.59 | 7.40% |
| 140 | 19.59 | 7.29% |
| 160 | 19.58 | 7.17% |
| 180 | 19.58 | 7.09% |
| 200 | 19.48 | 6.48% |
9-6 Jacks or Better — Max Loss = 25 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | 13.65 | 42.43% |
| 40 | 17.08 | 26.68% |
| 60 | 18.71 | 18.37% |
| 80 | 19.56 | 13.37% |
| 100 | 20.02 | 10.13% |
| 120 | 20.26 | 7.95% |
| 140 | 20.38 | 6.43% |
| 160 | 20.42 | 5.35% |
| 170 | 20.43 | 4.93% |
| 180 | 20.43 | 4.57% |
| 200 | 20.41 | 4.00% |
9-6 Double Double Bonus — Max Loss = 25 Units
| Win Goal | Expected Win |
Probability of Success |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | 17.77 | 25.13% |
| 40 | 18.69 | 20.96% |
| 60 | 19.84 | 15.31% |
| 80 | 20.35 | 12.55% |
| 100 | 20.64 | 10.78% |
| 120 | 20.78 | 9.79% |
| 140 | 20.86 | 9.09% |
| 160 | 20.97 | 7.91% |
| 180 | 21.01 | 7.04% |
| 200 | 21.03 | 6.40% |
| 220 | 16.77 | 4.34% |
| 240 | 14.48 | 3.34% |
| 260 | 13.24 | 2.84% |
| 280 | 12.39 | 2.53% |
| 300 | 11.69 | 2.28% |
Pay Tables
The following four tables show the full pay tables of the games analyzed in this report. In most casinos one of these games will be the best available at high denominations. The lower right cell in each table shows the expected return, assuming optimal strategy.
8-5 Bonus Poker — Return Table
| Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal flush | 800 | 495,443,136 | 0.000025 | 0.019884 |
| Straight flush | 50 | 2,129,604,264 | 0.000107 | 0.005342 |
| 4 aces | 80 | 3,903,775,812 | 0.000196 | 0.015667 |
| 4 2-4 | 40 | 10,509,866,328 | 0.000527 | 0.021090 |
| 4 5-K | 25 | 32,688,417,336 | 0.001640 | 0.040997 |
| Full house | 8 | 229,516,869,924 | 0.011514 | 0.092114 |
| Flush | 5 | 216,873,645,000 | 0.010880 | 0.054400 |
| Straight | 4 | 223,676,319,912 | 0.011221 | 0.044885 |
| 3 of a kind | 3 | 1,484,391,167,856 | 0.074468 | 0.223405 |
| Two pair | 2 | 2,577,523,603,752 | 0.129308 | 0.258616 |
| Jacks or better | 1 | 4,290,810,981,444 | 0.215259 | 0.215259 |
| Nothing | 0 | 10,860,710,822,436 | 0.544855 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 19,933,230,517,200 | 1.000000 | 0.991660 |
25-15-9 Deuces Wild — Return Table
| Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural royal flush | 800 | 459,049,128 | 0.000023 | 0.018423 |
| Four deuces | 200 | 3,727,422,492 | 0.000187 | 0.037399 |
| Wild royal flush | 25 | 38,117,987,136 | 0.001912 | 0.047807 |
| Five of a kind | 15 | 62,201,557,608 | 0.003120 | 0.046807 |
| Straight flush | 9 | 98,365,859,016 | 0.004935 | 0.044413 |
| Four of a kind | 4 | 1,221,942,888,444 | 0.061302 | 0.245207 |
| Full house | 4 | 522,030,131,520 | 0.026189 | 0.104756 |
| Flush | 3 | 407,586,633,720 | 0.020448 | 0.061343 |
| Straight | 2 | 1,145,767,137,120 | 0.057480 | 0.114961 |
| Three of a kind | 1 | 5,342,397,992,292 | 0.268015 | 0.268015 |
| Nothing | 0 | 11,090,633,858,724 | 0.556389 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 19,933,230,517,200 | 1.000000 | 0.989131 |
9-6 Jacks or Better — Return Table
| Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal flush | 800 | 493,512,264 | 0.000025 | 0.019807 |
| Straight flush | 50 | 2,178,883,296 | 0.000109 | 0.005465 |
| 4 of a kind | 25 | 47,093,167,764 | 0.002363 | 0.059064 |
| Full house | 9 | 229,475,482,596 | 0.011512 | 0.103610 |
| Flush | 6 | 219,554,786,160 | 0.011015 | 0.066087 |
| Straight | 4 | 223,837,565,784 | 0.011229 | 0.044917 |
| 3 of a kind | 3 | 1,484,003,070,324 | 0.074449 | 0.223346 |
| Two pair | 2 | 2,576,946,164,148 | 0.129279 | 0.258558 |
| Jacks or better | 1 | 4,277,372,890,968 | 0.214585 | 0.214585 |
| Nothing | 0 | 10,872,274,993,896 | 0.545435 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 19,933,230,517,200 | 1.000000 | 0.995439 |
9-6 Double Double Bonus — Return Table
| Hand | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal flush | 800 | 488,567,700 | 0.000025 | 0.019608 |
| Straight flush | 50 | 2,184,917,880 | 0.000110 | 0.005481 |
| 4 aces + 2-4 | 400 | 1,227,691,500 | 0.000062 | 0.024636 |
| 4 2-4 + A-4 | 160 | 2,854,370,052 | 0.000143 | 0.022911 |
| 4 aces + 5-K | 160 | 3,460,011,120 | 0.000174 | 0.027773 |
| 4 2-4 + 5-K | 80 | 7,662,444,216 | 0.000384 | 0.030752 |
| 4 5-K | 50 | 32,494,582,452 | 0.001630 | 0.081509 |
| Full house | 9 | 216,474,969,996 | 0.010860 | 0.097740 |
| Flush | 6 | 226,412,247,120 | 0.011359 | 0.068151 |
| Straight | 4 | 254,472,741,540 | 0.012766 | 0.051065 |
| 3 of a kind | 3 | 1,500,277,164,324 | 0.075265 | 0.225795 |
| Two pair | 1 | 2,453,055,008,724 | 0.123064 | 0.123064 |
| Jacks or better | 1 | 4,212,339,758,244 | 0.211322 | 0.211322 |
| Nothing | 0 | 11,019,826,042,332 | 0.552837 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 19,933,230,517,200 | 1.000000 | 0.989808 |
Methodology
This analysis was done assuming optimal video poker strategy. The simulations used a Mersenne Twister random number generator.
Internal Links
100% Rebate on Video Poker Losses Promotions. How to play 100% loss rebate promotions on single-line three-reel slots. This may be a viable option if you can bet significantly more on slots.